Thomas C. Theiner Profile picture
Jun 20, 2022 28 tweets 8 min read Read on X
What @EmmanuelMacron & @OlafScholz don't understand: for many European nations the war against russia is payback time.
Not one of these nations will tell Ukraine to stop, and all of them will help to kill as many russian troops as possible.
This is a list of these nations:
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🇳🇱 - russia murdered 193 Dutch citizens by shooting their plane out of the sky. Then let the corpses rot in the fields, pillaged the deads belongings. russia still lies about MH17, mocks the dead, and tries to sabotage the trial in the Netherlands to hold putin accountable.

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🇬🇧 - russia used a nuclear poison to murder a British citizen in 2006, then used a chemical weapon to poison five British citizens in 2018, one of whom died.
russia tried to sabotage the international investigation of the latter case and mocks the victims to this day.
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🇫🇮 - after 100 years or occupation & subjugation, followed by a liberation war, russia attack Finland again in 1939. russia bombed Helsinki, massacred civilians, & then annexed parts of Finland.
Afterwards russia forced Finland into decades of subservient "neutrality".
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🇪🇪🇱🇻🇱🇹 - after centuries of the czars trying to exterminate their language and culture the Baltic nations freed themselves from russian occupation after World War I.
russia attacked and occupied them again after the Hitler-Stalin pact. The russians then murdered 10,000s and
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deported 100,000s to Siberia. Then russia settled russians into the deported families' homes. When Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania moved to regain independence in 1991 moscow sent tanks to literally crush people.
In the last decade russia used cyberattacks, economic warfare,
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and energy blockades every time the Baltics try to dismantle remnants of the russian occupation and subjugation.

🇨🇿 - After World War II russia annexed the easternmost part of Czechoslovakia. Then in 1968 russian tanks invaded and crushed the Prague Spring.
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Then in 2014 russian GRU intelligence agents blew up the ammunition depot in Vrbětice and killed two Czech citizens (photo).
🇷🇴 - after finally liberating Bessarabia from russian occupation after World War I, russia again invaded and annexed Bessarabia in 1940. And as always
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when russia invades a place ethnic cleansing (photo), mass executions, and deportations to Siberia followed. The russians then renamed Bessarabia as Moldova and forced the people to write their language Romanian, in the alien Cyrillic alphabet.
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When Moldova tried to gain independence russia started a civil war, invaded, and to this day occupies the Eastern part of Moldova. And russia also continuously wages economic warfare against Moldova.
🇦🇱 - Albania has not forgotten the russian support for Serbia during the
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Kosovo war, and the russian campaign since then to block the recognition of Kosovo.
🇭🇷 - Croatia has not forgotten russia's support for Serbia, when Serbia attacked Croatia in 1991, killed 1,000s, displaced 300,000 Croats and bombed Croatian cities into rubble.
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Likewise Croatians have not forgotten the russians supporting Serbia during the Bosnian war 1992-95, which killed 100,000+, displaced more than 2.2 million, and during which the Serbian raped like 50,000 women.
Now russia tries to restart the Bosnian war.
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putin even tried to get the Bosnian Serb leader Dodik to restart the war last week, when they met in St. Petersburg.
🇧🇬 - Bulgaria was always russia friendly, until the russians used a chemical weapon to try and poison a Bulgarian citizen in 2015, who was exporting weapons
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to Ukraine and to Syrian rebels.
🇬🇷 - in the first days of russia's invasion of Ukraine russian forces killed at least 10 Greek citizens, and attacked Greek ships. Instead of condolences russia mocked Greece and infuriated the Greek government.
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🇲🇪 - in 2016 Montenegro's intelligence services caught russian intelligence agents trying to organize a coup to eliminate the government of Đukanović, which wanted Montenegro to join NATO. russia has refused to extradite the russian agents and Đukanović is now president.
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🇮🇹 - Italy spent vast sums of money and work to stabilize Libya after the 2011 overthrow of Gaddafi, only for russia to come in and try to install warlord Haftar as new ruler of Libya. Italian/Turkish intervention helped the Libyans drive back putin's Wagner mercenaries,
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but at great expense to Italy; and that war is not yet over.
🇪🇸 - in 2017 russia promised Catalan separatists money, support, recognition, even 30,000 troops if they would declare independence from Spain. Naturally the russians had no intention to truly send troops,

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all they wanted was to start a civil war in Spain. Like Italy Spain has not forgotten and is hell-bent of revenge.
🇵🇱 - after centuries of occupation, subjugation, deportations, and three brutally crushed uprisings against russian occupation Poland finally regained its
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freedom after World War 1. Only for russia to crush it again in 1939 in alliance with Hitler. Mass murders, deportations and ethnic cleansing followed, as always when russia enters another country.
During World War II the russians allowed the nazis to crush the Polish
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resistance and flatten Warsaw; after World War II executions and mass deportations to Siberia resumed. Then in 1981 russia threatened to invade Poland unless the Polish communist government crushed the Solidarność democracy movement.

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All of these countries have no illusion about russia. All of these countries want to see russia's military destroyed, and its economy wrecked, because all of these countries know that russia was and is a mortal enemy of peace, freedom, and democracy in Europe.
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All of these countries also know that if russia's ability to wage war is not destroyed in Ukraine, then Bucha, Irpin, Mariupol, will be repeated in Riga, Vilnius, Helsinki, Chisinau, Prague, Tallinn, Bucharest, and Sofia; or even Barcelona and Tripoli.
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russia made enemies all around, showed its true face in Bucha and Irpin, massacres for which putin gave awards to the perpetrators, and russia does not hide its intention to attack, occupy, annex, and "cleanse of anti-russians" most of the countries in this list.
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russia is a fascist state. And fascists must be fought.

And unlike honor-less countries like Germany, Hungary, and Georgia, which have forgotten the crimes the russians committed against their people (1953, 1956, 2008) the countries in the above list know that helping kill
24/n
russian troops is self defense and that there can be no compromise with fascists. Roosevelt & Churchill did not compromise with the fascists about how much of Europe or Asia they can keep.
All of Ukraine and Moldova, and occupied Belarus must be liberated! This is our task.
25/x
As there is a 25 tweet limit to threads I didn't include the dozens of genocides russia committed: like the Circassian genocide, the Chechen massacres, the Syrian genocide; also not included the various ongoing massacres/genocide campaigns by russia and its allies in Africa.
26/1
I also didn't include the russian occupation of parts of Georgia and Azerbaijan, the russian suppression of freedom in Belarus and Kazakhstan; russia having given the impetus for the Armenian genocide, russia trying to coup away democracy in the US, etc. etc. etc.
26/2
Oh, also russia's support for nazi parties in the West, and russian support for terror organizations worldwide, and russian weapon supplies to the Taliban, and russia murdering people in the middle of Berlin in view of Merkel's office, and so many more crimes.
26/3

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More from @noclador

Mar 8
Please stop saying Europe should cancel weapons deals with the US.

Yes, we should not sign new weapon deals with the US; but canceling existing deals will hurt Ukraine and also Europe.

And there are 3 reasons for that. Let me explain.

1) Europe's armed forces have nearly
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0 spare equipment, as almost everything taken out of service over the last 35 years was either sold off or scrapped. Europe must continue to support Ukraine and therefore Europe needs to buy whatever weapons it can get it hands on to free up equipment to donate to Ukraine.
2/n Image
I.e. you can't demand that Belgium cancel its F-35A deal and demand that Belgium must donate its F-16 to Ukraine...
Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands could donate their F-16 to Ukraine, because they already received enough F-35A as replacement.
3/n Image
Read 19 tweets
Mar 5
I have to tell you when putin will attack next:

🇬🇧 @Keir_Starmer is NOT increasing defence spending this year.

🇬🇧 @Keir_Starmer is NOT increasing defence spending next year.

🇬🇧 @Keir_Starmer is increasing defence spending FROM (!) April 2027 by 0.2%.

This means that for
1/7
the next two years the British Armed Forces get nothing. They will remain as broken as they are.

The British Army has 78,000 troops of which just 18,000 are combat capable (the remaining 60,000 (= 77%) lack the materiel, training, equipment, etc. to be useful).
2/7
The situation is even worse for the Royal Navy.

Next year the British Armed Forces actually get even LESS money than this year (inflation is 10 times higher than GDP growth and so inflation cuts into the defence budget).

Then from April 2027 the situation will begin to
3/7
Read 7 tweets
Mar 2
Yesterday I posted a thread about American weapons and components in fighter aircraft and how Europe has to wean itself off them.

Today let's look at transport, tanker, maritime patrol, and airborne early warning aircraft.
(Tomorrow then trainer aircraft and drones)
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Transport aircraft come in two sizes: for strategic airlift or tactical airlift.
Simplified: strategic airlift transports materiel between continents and tactical airlift within a theater of operations.
For strategic airlift the choice for Europe is easy: A400M Atlas, because
2/n Image
it is the only strategic airlifter in production (C-17 Globemaster production ceased in 2015) and because the French were involved in its design the A400M Atlas comes with all key parts "Made in Europe".
Yes, it carries only half the payload of the C-17 Globemaster, but for
3/n Image
Read 25 tweets
Mar 1
Let's talk about American weapons and how Europe has to wean itself off them.
Part 1 of a long thread; this one looking at fighter jets.

First and foremost: Europe has to get all American made components out of all weapon systems produced in Europe. If Trump can shut down a
1/24 Image
European production line by withholding a component, then that component has to replaced... and if that is impossible, then that weapon system has no future and production has to end.
As for the F-35... Europe has nothing even close in combat capability. Best course will be
2/n Image
to see the existing deals through and then focus on acquiring Eurofighters and Rafales, both of which are way more capable than whatever junk russia sends up in the air.

The main issue will be that the Rafale's production line is running already at full capacity, while the
3/n Image
Read 24 tweets
Feb 25
The Gripen was designed by Sweden for Sweden's Bas 90 air base system and - truly - Sweden built the perfect fighter for Sweden's Bas 90 system... which resulted in a fighter no one but Sweden needs.

Bear with me as I explain a few things @Saab doesn't want you to know.
1/29 Image
Bas 90 was developed in the 1970s, when the Swedish Air Force was flying the Viggen (and some upgraded Draken). Bas 90 consisted of some 30+ reserve air bases with a 2,000+ metres (6,600+ ft) long main runway and 2-3 short runways of 800 metres (2,600 ft).
2/n Image
Here are the airbases of Kubbe (63°37'59.81"N 17°56'10.79"E) and Jokkmokk (66°29'48.43"N 20° 8'45.17") with the short runways highlighted in red.

Some of the short runways used public roads, but most were built specifically for the Bas 90 system in the 1980s.
3/n Image
Image
Read 29 tweets
Feb 22
I set out to create a table showing the reduction in British Infantry units between 1989 and 2025...

After doing Scotland, Wales and Yorkshire - I gave up.

For three reason:
a) the sheer size of it! The British Army had 100 infantry battalions in 1989 (not counting the
1/8 Image
nine battalions of the Ulster Defence Regiment).
b) the British Army's habit of reroling battalions every four years.
c) the disbanding of volunteer regiments in the early 1990s, then the merging of volunteer battalions into new volunteer regiments in the mid 1990s, and then
2/8
the disbanding of these new volunteer regiments some 5-6 years later, followed by the de-merging of some of the volunteer battalions.

In short: it was all very haphazard and chaotic!

So, instead here come the numbers about the British Army's infantry decline between 1989
3/8
Read 8 tweets

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