What @EmmanuelMacron & @OlafScholz don't understand: for many European nations the war against russia is payback time.
Not one of these nations will tell Ukraine to stop, and all of them will help to kill as many russian troops as possible.
This is a list of these nations: 1/n
🇳🇱 - russia murdered 193 Dutch citizens by shooting their plane out of the sky. Then let the corpses rot in the fields, pillaged the deads belongings. russia still lies about MH17, mocks the dead, and tries to sabotage the trial in the Netherlands to hold putin accountable.
2/n
🇬🇧 - russia used a nuclear poison to murder a British citizen in 2006, then used a chemical weapon to poison five British citizens in 2018, one of whom died.
russia tried to sabotage the international investigation of the latter case and mocks the victims to this day. 3/n
🇫🇮 - after 100 years or occupation & subjugation, followed by a liberation war, russia attack Finland again in 1939. russia bombed Helsinki, massacred civilians, & then annexed parts of Finland.
Afterwards russia forced Finland into decades of subservient "neutrality". 4/n
🇪🇪🇱🇻🇱🇹 - after centuries of the czars trying to exterminate their language and culture the Baltic nations freed themselves from russian occupation after World War I.
russia attacked and occupied them again after the Hitler-Stalin pact. The russians then murdered 10,000s and
5/n
deported 100,000s to Siberia. Then russia settled russians into the deported families' homes. When Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania moved to regain independence in 1991 moscow sent tanks to literally crush people.
In the last decade russia used cyberattacks, economic warfare, 6/n
and energy blockades every time the Baltics try to dismantle remnants of the russian occupation and subjugation.
🇨🇿 - After World War II russia annexed the easternmost part of Czechoslovakia. Then in 1968 russian tanks invaded and crushed the Prague Spring. 7/n
Then in 2014 russian GRU intelligence agents blew up the ammunition depot in Vrbětice and killed two Czech citizens (photo).
🇷🇴 - after finally liberating Bessarabia from russian occupation after World War I, russia again invaded and annexed Bessarabia in 1940. And as always 8/n
when russia invades a place ethnic cleansing (photo), mass executions, and deportations to Siberia followed. The russians then renamed Bessarabia as Moldova and forced the people to write their language Romanian, in the alien Cyrillic alphabet. 9/n
When Moldova tried to gain independence russia started a civil war, invaded, and to this day occupies the Eastern part of Moldova. And russia also continuously wages economic warfare against Moldova.
🇦🇱 - Albania has not forgotten the russian support for Serbia during the
10/n
Kosovo war, and the russian campaign since then to block the recognition of Kosovo.
🇭🇷 - Croatia has not forgotten russia's support for Serbia, when Serbia attacked Croatia in 1991, killed 1,000s, displaced 300,000 Croats and bombed Croatian cities into rubble. 11/n
Likewise Croatians have not forgotten the russians supporting Serbia during the Bosnian war 1992-95, which killed 100,000+, displaced more than 2.2 million, and during which the Serbian raped like 50,000 women.
Now russia tries to restart the Bosnian war. 12/n
putin even tried to get the Bosnian Serb leader Dodik to restart the war last week, when they met in St. Petersburg.
🇧🇬 - Bulgaria was always russia friendly, until the russians used a chemical weapon to try and poison a Bulgarian citizen in 2015, who was exporting weapons 13/n
to Ukraine and to Syrian rebels.
🇬🇷 - in the first days of russia's invasion of Ukraine russian forces killed at least 10 Greek citizens, and attacked Greek ships. Instead of condolences russia mocked Greece and infuriated the Greek government.
14/n
🇲🇪 - in 2016 Montenegro's intelligence services caught russian intelligence agents trying to organize a coup to eliminate the government of Đukanović, which wanted Montenegro to join NATO. russia has refused to extradite the russian agents and Đukanović is now president.
15/n
🇮🇹 - Italy spent vast sums of money and work to stabilize Libya after the 2011 overthrow of Gaddafi, only for russia to come in and try to install warlord Haftar as new ruler of Libya. Italian/Turkish intervention helped the Libyans drive back putin's Wagner mercenaries, 16/n
but at great expense to Italy; and that war is not yet over.
🇪🇸 - in 2017 russia promised Catalan separatists money, support, recognition, even 30,000 troops if they would declare independence from Spain. Naturally the russians had no intention to truly send troops,
17/n
all they wanted was to start a civil war in Spain. Like Italy Spain has not forgotten and is hell-bent of revenge.
🇵🇱 - after centuries of occupation, subjugation, deportations, and three brutally crushed uprisings against russian occupation Poland finally regained its
18/n
freedom after World War 1. Only for russia to crush it again in 1939 in alliance with Hitler. Mass murders, deportations and ethnic cleansing followed, as always when russia enters another country.
During World War II the russians allowed the nazis to crush the Polish 19/n
resistance and flatten Warsaw; after World War II executions and mass deportations to Siberia resumed. Then in 1981 russia threatened to invade Poland unless the Polish communist government crushed the Solidarność democracy movement.
20/n
All of these countries have no illusion about russia. All of these countries want to see russia's military destroyed, and its economy wrecked, because all of these countries know that russia was and is a mortal enemy of peace, freedom, and democracy in Europe.
21/n
All of these countries also know that if russia's ability to wage war is not destroyed in Ukraine, then Bucha, Irpin, Mariupol, will be repeated in Riga, Vilnius, Helsinki, Chisinau, Prague, Tallinn, Bucharest, and Sofia; or even Barcelona and Tripoli.
22/n
russia made enemies all around, showed its true face in Bucha and Irpin, massacres for which putin gave awards to the perpetrators, and russia does not hide its intention to attack, occupy, annex, and "cleanse of anti-russians" most of the countries in this list.
23/n
russia is a fascist state. And fascists must be fought.
And unlike honor-less countries like Germany, Hungary, and Georgia, which have forgotten the crimes the russians committed against their people (1953, 1956, 2008) the countries in the above list know that helping kill
24/n
russian troops is self defense and that there can be no compromise with fascists. Roosevelt & Churchill did not compromise with the fascists about how much of Europe or Asia they can keep.
All of Ukraine and Moldova, and occupied Belarus must be liberated! This is our task.
25/x
As there is a 25 tweet limit to threads I didn't include the dozens of genocides russia committed: like the Circassian genocide, the Chechen massacres, the Syrian genocide; also not included the various ongoing massacres/genocide campaigns by russia and its allies in Africa.
26/1
I also didn't include the russian occupation of parts of Georgia and Azerbaijan, the russian suppression of freedom in Belarus and Kazakhstan; russia having given the impetus for the Armenian genocide, russia trying to coup away democracy in the US, etc. etc. etc.
26/2
Oh, also russia's support for nazi parties in the West, and russian support for terror organizations worldwide, and russian weapon supplies to the Taliban, and russia murdering people in the middle of Berlin in view of Merkel's office, and so many more crimes.
26/3
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Of course russia can quickly seize the Suwałki Gap and cut of the Baltics from the rest of NATO... but have you had a look at Kaliningrad's border and the flat dry country beyond?
There are 9 Polish brigades in that area (and 11 in reserve, with 4 more forming). Sure russia 1/5
could move 50,000+ men to Kaliningrad to secure the border or build a defence line along the Pregoła river... but those need to be supplied from Belarus, which also is easily invaded unless russia sends 50,000+ troops to secure its flank there. A buildup of 200,000+ russian
2/5
troops in Belarus would be noticed by NATO (and ordinary people in Belarus, who would upload 100s of videos of the arriving russians).
In summary the main risk isn't that russia suddenly seizes and fortifies the Suwałki Gap... the main risk is that russia starts building up
3/5
The North Atlantic - one of the key battles in a russia-Europe war.
If Europe is defeated here, which with Europe's current forces and capabilities, is almost certain to happen... then russia can nuke the UK without fear of retaliation.
This will be a unsettling thread:
1/40
This battle will be very different from the battles in the Black Sea and Baltic Sea, which I discussed in an early thread, which is linked below.
To understand the North Atlantic Battle we need to look at Imperial Germany's WWI submarine campaign,
2 days ago I did a thread about the reasons russia can't defeat Ukraine and yet is still a deadly threat to Europe and NATO (link to the thread the next tweet).
Today I will talk about three of the fronts of a russia-Europe war: 1) Black Sea 2) Baltic Sea 3) North Atlantic
1/36
These three fronts will be air and sea battles, while Finland and the Baltics will be air and land battles; about which I will talk in another thread in the coming days.
I do not believe the US under control of Trump or Vance would come to the aid 2/n
• russia has no chance to defeat Ukraine
• russia is a deadly threat to NATO and the EU
Both of these are true... because as of 2025 Ukraine fields a far more capable military than NATO's 30 European members combined (!).
Let me explain.
1/39
As of August 2025 russia fields more than 1,3 million troops; at least half of which are fighting in or against Ukraine.
Ukraine has an estimated 1 million troops... maybe even 1,1 million troops. NATO's European members have double that: some 2.2 million troops, but 2/n
(there is always a "but" with European militaries):
• with more than double the personnel European NATO members manage to field only 20% more combat brigades than Ukraine. Partly because Western navies and air forces are bigger, but mostly because in all European militaries 3/n
People forget that for most if its history Europe was much, much more militarized than even during the Cold War.
Italy, from the end of the Third War of Independence in 1866 to 1939 fielded always 360-400 battalions, which fell to 110-115 during the Cold War, as the US
1/14
backed its European allies with the its massive air force. Today Italy fields 41 battalions (infantry, tanks, recon, special forces, rangers).
Likewise the British Army fielded for most of its history (especially after the 1908 Haldane reforms) 450-480 battalions, which came 2/n
in three types: 150-160 regular battalions (of which a third was always in India), around 100 reserve battalions to provide replacements for the regular battalions, and 200-220 territorial battalions, which (at least on paper) could not be deployed overseas. The British Army
3/n
And this is how Berlin would look like 3 days after putin attacks Europe... because Germany doesn't have the air defence ammo to defend any of its city for more than 2 days.
1/12
This is Copenhagen.
And this is how Copenhagen would look like the morning after putin attacks Europe... because Denmark doesn't have any air defence to defend itself.
2/12
This is Paris.
And this is how Paris would look like a day after putin attacks Europe... because France only has SAMP/T air defence systems, which is as of now has very limited capabilities against ballistic missiles.
3/12