Chris Perruna Profile picture
Jun 20 3 tweets 1 min read
This is When we Buy

Wait for the Stage 1 & 2 bases!

Simply put, sideways action in a monthly range while the 200d ma closes in on the sideways base will highlight the stage 1 setup.

Then, once the stage 2 break-out occurs, the new leaders will be off to the races.

#Patience Image
Notice that the 2008-09 Stage 1 base took 6+ months to form, before breaking out to a Stage 2 up-trend!

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More from @cperruna

Jun 7
Michael Burry, of 'The Big Short' fame, compared the slowing housing market to 2008 saying it's like 'watching a plane crash'

👀🤷‍♂️ Image
Mortgage demand falls to the lowest level in 22 years

Applications for a mortgage are 21% lower than the same week one year ago.

cnbc.com/2022/06/08/mor…
This thread is worth a read...

Legitimate signs or just a brief cooling off period...?

Cooling in 2022 is nothing like 2005-2008. Far different reasons today vs then.

Read 4 tweets
May 7
🧵A comparison of drops for the % of stocks below their own 200d ma on the Nasdaq.

- 2001-02: long duration
- 2008: long duration
- 2018 & 2020: quick v-shaped
- 2022: long duration

Below 15% is the accumulate zone but ONLY when stage 1 & 2 bases are forming!

$COMPQ
2/ July 7th:

"Divergences on the charts:

The index is going up but the # of stocks above these averages is not.

Watch breadth."

3/ July 7th:

"$COMPQ making new highs while the # of stocks making new highs decreases. Divergence.

"The averages are merely the backdrop of the game; the real contests are waged over stocks themselves" - Mamis"

Read 10 tweets
Apr 3
🧵March 2022 Portfolio Update:
*through April 3rd

Past Month Performance:
Crypto: +11.9%
IRA Acct: +3.70%
Growth Acct: +1.45%

YTD:
Crypto Act: -3.6%
IRA Act: -9.29% | Fully invested
Growth Act: -11.23% | 80.5% cash

$SPX -4.62%
$COMPQ -8.84%
$ARKK -28.6%
2/ Growth Account Holdings

-11.23% YTD
+1.45% past month
Cash: 80.5%

$PLTR 3.9%
$SQ 3.8%
$COIN 2.6%
$TDOC 2.1%
$SHOP 2.0%
$MQ 2.0%
$ROKU 1.8%
$RBLX 1.3%
3/ IRA Holdings

-9.29% YTD
+3.70% past month
Cash: 0%, fully invested

$AAPL
$AMZN
$COST
$CVS
$DIS
$FB
$GOOGL
$HD
$JNJ
$JPM
$MSFT
$NFLX
$PG
$SBUX
$T
$TDOC
$TGT
$V
$VZ
$WMT

Looking to replace $T
Read 4 tweets
Mar 30
🧵Bear Flag Pattern

Stocks can often gain 100%+ on the move, quickly.

But notice the longer term trend & 200d ma.

Can these 12 beaten down stocks recover the 200d?
If so, how long will it take?

$ARKK is the group example

All 12 are still -35% to -65% below the 200d ma
2/ $PTON
3/ $FSLY
Read 15 tweets
Mar 27
🧵Is a Perfect Storm brewing for a global famine?

"We believe we are at the onset of a global famine of historic proportions."

The populations most at risk... are half a world away & we worry that that number is uncomfortably high.

Must read @DoombergT

doomberg.substack.com/p/farmers-on-t…
2/ Fertilizer prices at record highs!

Key sources of nitrogen, potassium, and phosphorous – important inputs into soil fertility, crop yield, and plant maintenance – have all gone vertical.

Via: @DoombergT
3/ Ammonia is derived directly from natural gas, and the price of natural gas outside of the US has gone vertical.

Glyphosate is effectively little more than an elegantly modified fertilizer, containing both phosphorous and nitrogen.

Via: @DoombergT
Read 8 tweets
Mar 22
🧵Stock Chart Stage Analysis

5 examples of stocks that just went through stages 2, 3 and 4 (all currently in stage 4).

Ideal Buy: In Stage 2 (above 200d)
Ideal Sell: In Stage 4 (below 200d)

$TDOC
$PTON
$ZM
$RDFN
$ROKU
2/ $TDOC - currently in stage 4, well below the 200d ma.
3/ $PTON - currently in stage 4, well below the 200d ma.
Read 6 tweets

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