Thread by @DAlperovitch

Two months ago I said that the fight for the Donbas would have little bearing on the outcome of the war

Now as that fight moves into its attritional phase, Putin's evolving strategy is becoming quite clear. He believes time is on his side. And he may be right 🧵

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1517277573910306817

Having failed at his original (and wildly unrealistic) plan of replacing the Zelensky government in 3 days and not having the forces to go back for major new offensives, Putin's best bet for achieving strategic success is now at the negotiation table

https://twitter.com/mchancecnn/status/1537368607943958528?s=20&t=akrGp2lnlTmRTPDZMqgGtA

But given that the Ukrainians have (quite understandably) little interest in compromising with Russia, Putin knows he needs to increase his leverage before restarting the talks

And his best option for that is to prolong the war at least until winter

Putin is betting that he can sustain some level of combat readiness of his forces through shadow mobilization: compelled contractor signups, outright forced recruitment of Chechens and LNR/DNR males of fighting age and other similar methods

https://twitter.com/MassDara/status/1538942863790297091?s=20&t=r84Ap82KL3rR3w5Cb1iifQ

The change in the Russian military's tactics—pummeling Ukrainian defensive positions with artillery and air strikes and not pressing forward quickly—is likely slowing/stabilizing their casualty rates and allowing them to extend the combat readiness of their forces

Why is winter likely the earliest time for ending the hostilities?

That's when the impact of the Black Sea blockade and the games that Putin is playing with Europe's gas supply will really start to have a major impact on the West (and everyone else)

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1520333220964933632?s=20&t=DpyNreesp9XCvCOf31wWHQ

The food crisis precipitated by Ukraine's inability to export grain due to the blockade is likely to cause famine in some regions, contribute to global geopolitical instability and further exacerbate already rising inflation

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1538667684224811010?s=20&t=akrGp2lnlTmRTPDZMqgGtA

The Russians understand this leverage well and are not hesitant to gloat about it

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1538911097138331648?s=20&t=akrGp2lnlTmRTPDZMqgGtA

At the same time, due to Russian gas cutoffs (for refusal to pay in rubles or pipeline 'maintenance'), EU gas storage inventories are at 50% capacity and continuing to drop as EU taps into them

Prospect of rationing of gas this winter seems very likely

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1538774155058987008?s=20&t=L-sp2-Xo62EXjzqsrL10Kw

Meanwhile, worsening inflation in energy and food prices and rising interest rates will almost certainly drive US and EU economies into recession early next year, if not earlier

The Russians are betting that the West's willingness to spend tens of billions of dollars on aid to Ukraine will diminish as the economic situation worsens

And without Western financial and military support, Ukraine's position will become untenable

And while the Russian economy is also contracting, the Russian state itself is flush with cash due to high energy prices. If the sanctions aren't lifted, the economic prospects for Russia are bleak in the long term—but they can do ok for quite some time

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1536783235316953089?s=20&t=r84Ap82KL3rR3w5Cb1iifQ

So, Putin likely believes that if Russia can hold onto most of its land gains in Donbas, Kherzon and Zaporizhzhia, he will be in a good position in ~6 months time to extract significant concessions from Ukraine

Putin's absolute minimal ask for lifting the blockade will likely be the lifting of the most impactful sanctions (eg. bank sanctions and chips import ban) and a ceasefire that would establish his de facto control over captured territory. But it is likely he will ask for much more

While it is obviously not in Zelensky's direct power to lift the sanctions placed on Russia, the reality is that if he were to ask the US and EU to do so as part of a negotiated settlement with Russia, they would almost certainly acquiesce

It is impossible to know whether or not Putin will achieve these goals, and the outcome is contingent on how dire the global food and energy crisis becomes—as well as on the willingness of the US, UK, France and Germany to keep financing Ukraine's fight

The West's willingness to continue the supply of large quantities of military aid will also likely depend on the Ukrainian military's ability to demonstrate that it can use that aid to push back the Russia forces and retake back their territory

If Ukrainian counteroffensives against Russian entrenched positions do not succeed in the next 6 months, they may well find the critical supplies of ammunition and weapons systems drying up, leaving them little choice but to go into a negotiation with Russia with a weak hand

Putin's hope is that he can hold on to the territory he has taken thus far and perhaps make some more incremental gains in the Donbas in the next 6 months

Ukraine must not allow him to succeed—or else its situation will get progressively worse with time

END