Russia’s now threatening Lithuania over decision to halt rail cargo between Belarus and #Kaliningrad. While reporting this dispatch from the 100 km corridor known as the Suwalki Gap separating Kaliningrad from Belarus, I was surprised to see no troops…. 🧵politico.eu/article/suwalk…
in the Suwalki Gap itself. Border patrols were also light. One border crossing with Belarus I visited wasn’t even manned. Aside from Lithuania’s small army, the only soldiers in the country are from a German-led battle group of about 1,000 and a small American contingent. 2
Locals are convinced Russia has its hands full with Ukraine and won’t move in because they’re in NATO.
They risk underestimating how important Kaliningrad is to Russia, which has a major naval base in the exclave, not to mention nuclear missiles pointed at European cities. 3
They risk underestimating how important Kaliningrad is to Russia, which has a major naval base in the exclave, not to mention nuclear missiles pointed at European cities. 3
Another big question is this: How eager would Washington and NATO be to risk Armageddon over a stretch of largely unpopulated farmland few of their citizens even know exists? 4
The best way to avoid finding out would be to station more NATO troops there, which now seem inevitable at the upcoming #NATOSummit in Madrid. Deterrence works. 5/End.
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