June 21, 2022 map update.
- Russian forces captured Toshkivka, Vrubivka, Pidlisne & Myrna Dolyna, coming within 4 kilometers SW of Lysychansk
- Russian forces likely destroyed the Ukrainian bridgehead east of the Inhulets River.
More below in this thread for
@TheStudyofWar.
- Russian forces captured Toshkivka, Vrubivka, Pidlisne & Myrna Dolyna, coming within 4 kilometers SW of Lysychansk
- Russian forces likely destroyed the Ukrainian bridgehead east of the Inhulets River.
More below in this thread for
@TheStudyofWar.
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1539382942564237319
1. We recoded Toshkivka and Vrubivka in Luhansk Oblast to Russian advance given Severodonetsk Regional State Administration Head Roman Vlasenko confirmed on June 21 that Russian forces seized Toshkivka and Vrubivka. Geolocated footage from June 19 and 21 shows Russian forces... 
west of Toshkivka as well.
Sources: t.me/stranaua/48127; ru.krymr.com/a/news-ukraina…;
Sources: t.me/stranaua/48127; ru.krymr.com/a/news-ukraina…;
https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1538986589552091136;
https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1539278403152519168
2. We recoded Pidlisne & Myrna Dolyna as Russian advances given the Ukrainian General Staff report of 1800 June 21 states that Russian forces seized them and are securing positions there.
This is less than 4 km southwest of Lysychansk.
Source: facebook.com/GeneralStaff.u…
This is less than 4 km southwest of Lysychansk.
Source: facebook.com/GeneralStaff.u…
3. We recoded previous Russian claims east of Ustinivka to Russian advance given the Ukrainian General Staff report of 1800 June 21 states that Russian forces are securing positions in Ustynivka and are conducting offensive operations in the direction of Bila Hora where they...
are having unspecified “partial success.” Source: facebook.com/GeneralStaff.u…
4. We expanded Russian advances towards the eastern approaches of Hirske given Vlasenko also stated on June 21 that Russian forces now threaten to encircle Ukrainian troops in Hirske and Zolote. The Ukrainian General Staff also stated that Russian forces have had ...
unspecified “partial success” in Hirske.
Sources: t.me/stranaua/48127 ; ru.krymr.com/a/news-ukraina…; facebook.com/GeneralStaff.u…
Sources: t.me/stranaua/48127 ; ru.krymr.com/a/news-ukraina…; facebook.com/GeneralStaff.u…
5. We expanded Russian advance towards Vershina and Semyhir'ya in Donetsk Oblast given the Ukrainian General Staff report of 0600 June 21 states that Russian forces are conducting offensive operations in the vicinity of Vershina and Semyhir'ya. Russian sources previously...
6. We expanded Russian claims to Klynove, Donetsk Oblast, given Russian Telegram channel Rybar reported on June 21 that Wagner forces entered Klynove on June 20.
Source: t.me/rybar/34197
Source: t.me/rybar/34197
7. I'm calling it. We made a big change on the Kherson-Mykolaiv front near Davydiv Brid. Russian forces likely destroyed the Ukrainian bridgehead on the left bank of the Inhulets River at an unknown date before June 21.
Reasoning below.
Reasoning below.
We recoded Ukrainian counteroffensives on the left bank of the Inhulets River near Davydiv Brid to assessed Russian advance on June 21. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on June 21 that Russian forces shelled Murakhivka and Bila Krynytsia in order to “contain” Ukrainian...
forces, indicating that Ukrainian forces are not beyond those points on the right bank of the Inhulets River. Combat footage posted on June 17 and 21 showed Ukrainian forces shelling Russian positions near Lozove and Andriivka on unspecified dates, indicating that Ukrainian...
forces are likely not in those locations anymore. It would be difficult for Ukrainian forces to maintain positions in Sukhyi Stavok (or any other position across the Inhulets River south or east of Bila Krynytsia) if Ukrainian forces did not hold Lozove and Andriivka.
It’s possible that the geolocated combat footage captured older activity from before Ukraine established the bridgehead, but I assess that to be less likely given the other pattern of observed reporting from multiple sources. There have been no reports of Ukrainian advance in...
this area for over two weeks. The assessment that Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian bridgehead on the left bank of the Inhulets River would be consistent with unconfirmed Russian Rybar / Swodki claims that Russian forces expelled Ukrainian forces from this area around June 6.
I really hope we are wrong about this one, but the available evidence points towards this call. We will update our maps as we collect and confirm more information.
Sources: facebook.com/GeneralStaff.u…; facebook.com/36obmp/videos/…;
https://twitter.com/neonhandrail/status/1539124919585456128/photo;
https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1538114817642446850/2; t.me/rybar/33619; t.me/swodki/110889?…
8. We recoded Pavlivka in Donetsk Oblast given Russian milblogger Yury Kotyenok claimed on June 21 that Ukrainian forces seized Pavlivka and are attacking Yehorivka.
Source: t.me/voenkorKotenok…
Source: t.me/voenkorKotenok…
As always, we will continue to refine our assessment as we collect more information.
All of today's changes are live on our interactive map: storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6…
All of today's changes are live on our interactive map: storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6…
Southeast* of Lysychansk, not southwest.
It's been a long day.
It's been a long day.
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