Why does the #Ukranian suicide drone strike on a Russian refinery this morning matter? a short🧵
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1539512743333613569
Despite using a seemingly small drone, the strike has likely done lasting damage to the Rostov refinery, based on the footage of the aftermath
https://twitter.com/GreyDynamics/status/1539529671007690754
More importantly, the attack likely went through Russia's air defense network to get to the target, which shows how useful a suicide drone can be compared to a manned aircraft or ballistic missile
For those that follow the war in Yemen, using suicide drones to penetrate air defense networks and do massive damage to energy infrastructure is all too familiar:
https://twitter.com/AJEnglish/status/1483053993861521411
The Houthis in Yemen have successfully used suicide drones to attack major energy infrastructure, and to strike military targets in Yemen, such as this one in 2019:
https://twitter.com/saadabedine/status/1083334047185551360?lang=en
Some have blamed Russia's poor air defense for this attack, but the truth is small drones are very difficult to counter over such a wide area and set of targets. Russia likely doesn't have the AD to defend every potential target against suicide drones.
@ukroboronprom and @ukrspecsystems can manufacture these things at a much lower cost than a guided munitions, as analyses of Houthi drones have shown, they are not particularly complicated machines conflictarm.com/dispatches/evo…
Unlike the Houthis, Ukraine will have a much easier time getting components that they can't manufacture themselves
Suicide drones are often shot down, but their low cost means you can send many. As the attack shows, Ukraine only needs to get a single drone through to do lots of damage.
Ukraine could easily continue and expand suicide drone attacks, particularly against Russian military targets in Ukraine. Doing so might require them to design a new drone to get the range/payload they want.
If they get this working, any Russian static position could be a target.
Based on how far Houthi drones can apparently go, Ukraine could hypothetically hit targets much further into Russian territory than Rostov tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.108…
In sum, Moscow should be concerned about this. Their options are either to use their AD assets to defend the frontlines, or to redeploy them to prevent attacks behind their lines and reduce coverage on the front.
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