Thread by @imetatronink

🧵The Geostrategic Importance of Kaliningrad

So the most recent move on the RISK board sees the US and its dutiful NATO vassals opting to play the Suwalki Gap card.

Let’s explore the likely perspectives of the respective combatants.

1/

For Russia:

Kaliningrad is a geostrategic imperative. Its defense would entail all the levels of escalation on the meter.

For the US/NATO:

“Restoring” Kaliningrad to the west would represent a *major* geostrategic setback for Russia.

2/

I recently stumbled on this brief post. I’m not familiar with the site, whether it is prominent or obscure. It doesn’t matter. What I recognized in these few paragraphs was the textual imprint of a likely intel / propaganda operation.

americandefensenews.com/2022/05/07/kal…

3/

First, the bold headline:

Kaliningrad: Russia’s Military Stronghold Deep in NATO Territory Simulates Nuke Missile Strikes

What is this Kaliningrad that menaces the world? (Vanishingly few people have any idea, of course.)

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaliningr…

4/

So the article sets out to inform its audience of “Kaliningrad”, or "Königsberg", or "East Prussia", or the historic stronghold of the "Teutonic Knights" of ancient lore.

It’s puzzling that, in a brief report about Russia testing missiles, a history lesson is included.

5/

It is essential that people understand:

“The roots of the territory reach far back in history”

“Founded by the Teutonic Knights in 1255”

“famous for the philosophers Immanuel Kant … and Hannah Arendt”

This area is not historically part of Russia! It belongs to the west.

6/

In this historically “not Russian” region, Russia has now installed “nuclear-capable” missile systems to threaten peaceful Europe. And this ice-free port permits Russia’s nuclear-armed Baltic Fleet to menace all of Europe and beyond.

Russians in East Prussia is a BAD thing.

7/

Now remember, this was six weeks ago.

It was a preface to the story that has now begun to play out.

The US/NATO has made a deliberate, albeit tentative, move to threaten Kaliningrad. Of this there can be no doubt. Russia certainly views it in those terms.

8/

It’s obviously a provocation to induce Russia to secure the Suwalki Gap, and thereby, presumably, invoke NATO’s Article 5, triggering mutual defense in behalf of Lithuania and Poland.

And make no mistake, Russia *will*, in course of time, conquer a corridor to Kaliningrad.

9/

But not yet.

Still … the larger question remains: Why would the US/NATO *want* to induce Russia to act such that Article 5 *could* be invoked?

Because, unless the whisperers are correct that the Pentagon has world-beating secret weapons, it won’t go to war against Russia.

10/

It would take the US at least two years to assemble a force sufficient to take on the Russians in eastern Europe. And it’s a moot issue anyway, because the Russians wouldn’t just sit idly by and permit such a concentration of forces to occur.

11/

(Not to mention that, to concentrate a force in eastern Europe sufficient to take on Russia, the US would literally have to empty its bases worldwide, leaving almost every other geostrategic prize in the world free for the taking.)

12/

I’m left with competing potential explanations for this obviously deliberate menacing of Kaliningrad.

Is it simply a transparent attempt to distract Russia from the task at hand: consummating the utter annihilation of NATO’s mighty Ukrainian proxy army?

13/

Or, more worryingly, is it indicative of the possibility that the #EmpireAtAllCosts cult has persuaded a critical mass of politicians and generals that the US simply CANNOT permit Russia to waltz away with what will sooner or later be seen as a HUGE strategic triumph?

14/

Is a narrative being woven to make the case for a punitive strike against Russia? Some sort of dramatic “reminder” to them that “we’re still the baddest asses on the planet”?

Is there sufficient hubris in Washington to commit such a catastrophic blunder?

15/

I sure hope not. I continue to believe … or at least *want* to believe that clearer heads prevail in the Pentagon. Maybe only by a thin margin, but I have to believe enough people know what the true situation really is.

16/

The US simply cannot go to war against Russia OR China. And it sure as hell cannot go to war against BOTH of them at the same time.

Those days, if they ever existed, are now long gone.

The Empire cannot be saved.

The Republic may yet have a slim chance.

17/end