Thread by @haynesdeborah

NEW: #NATO looks set to agree next week to the biggest overhaul of its defences since the Cold War, including a major expansion of a 40,000-strong rapid response force.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine (not a NATO member) has triggered a fundamental rethink in how to deter Putin.
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Long-standing defence plans that had not received much traction prior to 24 February - the day Moscow launched its all-out assault on Kyiv - are starting to become a reality as leaders meet for a landmark summit in Spain from 28-30 June.
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"Overnight the mentality changed," said a NATO officer. "NATO now feels like it is electrified. You can feel the energy surging through the system."
A diplomat predicted the Madrid summit will deliver - or at least agree the framework to deliver - "a radical change in posture"
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There is disappointment though that a desire by historically neutral Sweden and Finland to join the NATO alliance - in the ultimate snub to Russia’s Vladimir Putin and win for the allies - has yet to be activated because of concerns by Turkey.
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Ankara has accused Stockholm of harbouring Kurdish militants. The UK is one of the allies trying to resolve the rift in time for Madrid.
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Among steps set to be agreed at NATO summit are:
• An expansion + rebranding of 40,000-strong NATO Response Force, possibly by as much as 6-fold, according to 2 military sources. But a NATO source said various formulas are being discussed & final uplift would likely be lower
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• An increase in the size of a mission to deter Russia from targeting NATO's eastern and southeastern flank, with thousands more troops added, though many are set to be based in their home nation and only deploy forward if needed.
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• The designation of Russia as the "most significant and direct threat" to security.
• A new "comprehensive assistance package" for Ukraine, including equipment to counter Russian drones and provide secure communication.
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NATO Secretary General @jensstoltenberg sais the gathering of Allied heads of state and government in the Spanish capital will be a "transformative summit because we are at a pivotal time for our security".
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Evidence of the horror unleashed by Russian forces in places like the Ukrainian town of #Bucha appear to have hardened the resolve of all NATO member states to agree to strengthen their defences in a way that would have been unthinkable even a year ago.
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A NATO defence minister is understood to have told a meeting at the alliance's headquarters in Brussels last week that a Bucha-style atrocity cannot be allowed to happen on NATO soil.
This changed appreciation of the threat is changing NATO's policy on how to deter it.
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The allies look set to move away from relying purely on the threat of punishment being enough to stop President Vladimir Putin from acting, to what some are calling "deterrence by denial".
(It sounds v technical but this is super important & is about better defending Europe)
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Kusti Salm, the top civil servant at Estonia's Ministry of Defence, explained it would work by having troops in larger numbers already on the ground to stop any invasion before it started.
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“You are able to put up adequate, sufficient forces and you indicate to your potential adversary that the force-overmatch is on a level that you [the adversary] would lose immediately," the permanent secretary at Estonia’s defence ministry said in a briefing with journalists.
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"This message should translate into a loss of their willingness to invade... Russia can read from it that even if they tried they would be wiped off the earth in the first few hours,” the Estonian official said.
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More details on what to expect at the Madrid #NATO summit next week are here, including an expected rebranding of the 40,000-strong NATO Response Force (NRF) to the much larger (final number still being decided) Allied Reaction Force (ARF)
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bit.ly/3HJnmob