On changing one's mind (aka "flip flopping" on FinTwit) -
"Probably one of my greatest assets is that I'm open minded + can change my mind very quickly" - Stanley Druckenmiller
"In Wall Street, the man who does not change his mind, will soon have no change to mind" - WD Gann
"If you bet, if the situation changes, you must change" - Stan Druckenmiller
"Those who fail to adapt to change, risk everything" - Bruce Kovner
"A wise man changes his mind, a fool never" - WD Gann
"Conviction. Conviction. Conviction. New facts. Change." - Marc Andreessen.
"Warren and I are very good at changing our prior conclusions. We work at developing that faculty because without it, disaster often comes" - C. Munger
"Change. The investors' only certainty" - T. Rowe Price
When new facts emerge, I do change my mind quickly. Guilty as charged.
To the sceptics who think I fabricate my portfolio moves, I've been very open about my trading signal (5ema / 7ema cross).
If you see from this chart, 5ema undercut 7ema in early June which is when I sold all shares and went short #NQ_F
Its not voodoo, just trend following.
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Before the trolls chirp again and claim I didn't re-invest in my preferred stocks before today's massive rally, the below post from 22 June should ease their anxiety -
Being wrong, staying wrong and losing 70-80% = smart
Changing view based on incoming data = dumb
Those who remain married to their view and blow up their accounts are applauded
Those who change their view are called jokers
I post my thoughts on here for free, in the hope of helping others.
I don't run a paid service and neither do I charge a single cent. Despite generously sharing my views + portfolio moves, each day trolls post dozens of ridiculous comments! Thus, I will now limit who can reply.
Interesting that those who are now sitting on ~60% YTD losses are trolling me because I hedged, raised cash in early June + am now re-investing after 25-30% MTD declines in growth stocks!
My YTD portfolio drawdown is ~26%, yet I am the clown? Performance matters, rest is noise.
In late 2018, when the Fed was reducing the size of its balance-sheet (QT), long term UST yields peaked in early November.
Many high growth stocks bottomed between mid-Oct and mid-Nov whereas $NDX $SPX bottomed in late-Dec (Boxing Day) on Fed dovish pivot.
The crack in commodities is a good sign...if the selling continues, inflationary pressure abates and long-term UST yields bottom, conceivable that the high growth stocks which aren't so dependent on a strong economy might bottom before the indices.
Time will tell.
The most speculative segment of the market peaked in early Feb 2021 and those stocks have already been taken to the woodshed (down 70-90%)!
The bear-market in these names is now approximately 1.5 years old (versus just 7 months for the indices).
A number of data points are suggesting that the relief rally is likely ending and we are about to start a multi-week decline.
$NDX $SPX multiples are still elevated, indices have run into overhead resistance + financial conditions are now tighter than Dec '18...time for caution.
Jobs data is a lagging indicator...it is meaningless.
Most of the leading economic indicators are flashing danger and suggesting that a major economic slowdown is around the corner. Monetary policy works with a lag.
This is the time to defend capital.
If history is any guide, during the next leg down all stocks will decline; some will go down more than the others. If long rates peak, then recurring revenue software stocks likely to show relative strength vs. the indices i.e. decline less.
May was an especially bad month for growth stocks as many names got smoked post-ER!
A number of my companies announced pretty decent returns but they got badly hit due to soft guidance. Furthermore, $ARKK which has already crashed, didn't go down as much...
1) High growth stocks have been crushed (most are down 60-80% from the highs) and multiples have now become very compressed.
Companies with 30-50%pa revenue growth, high gross margins and long runways are now trading at lower multiples than legacy consumer staples businesses!
2) Today's CPI print although above consensus is at least now trending in the right direction i.e. lower.
The past few months have been challenging for growth investors but this isn't the GFC crisis (banks and households aren't going bankrupt) and it appears as though the...
3)...multiple compression in the high growth space is largely in the rear-view mirror.
Remember, the markets look ahead - they discount the future and am fairly confident that at this point, most of the known 'bad news' is baked in the price.