A short thread on Lithuania, Kaliningrad and Russia. Russia attacks not when it is "provoked", but in an opposite case: when it feels stronger than the opponent, or (the best case for Russia) when it feels, the opponent is not willing to escalate. Any attempt to "deescalate".../1
...leads to immediate understanding in Kremlin, that their attack will be successful. Russia pushes so much and so deep, until it meets a resistance. After that, Russia stops and starts to "negotiate". Sometimes it even goes one or two steps back and calls it a "compromise".../2
...but effectively it always knows that it will continue to go further with next attacks as soon as the opponent will act weak. Don't mix the current situation with negotiations with the USSR in 1970s, when compromise was possible. The USSR was a declining power, looking for.../3
...being left in peace. Brezhnev wanted to preserve and save the territorial and political gains, not to get new lands. Putin's Russia is on the course of expansion. So they hit, take, stop, re-group, hit again. Now look at any case when Russia was hit back. Every time they.../4
...stopped and never returned. In Syria they tried to provoke Turkey with violations of its airspace. After Erdogan shot down 2 Russian jets, killing 2 pilots, Russians have threatened to ban Turkish vegetables (!) but have not done even that. Russians accepted new limits... /5
...because Russia always accepts the limits set by force. They never try to question force, but always love to attack those willing to find a "compromise". So the only good answer by the Nato now would be to: 1) clearly say: any Russian pressure will meet overproportional.../6
...response with military force. That means, every attempt to "check" our limits will be cut with force and end badly. We will not need to draw "red lines", as this is an invitation for looking for smth not covered by "red lines". Just say:"we will hit harder than proportional"/7
...2) in a case of any airspace violation or an attempt to set a naval blockade of the Baltic countries (the latter is already an act of aggression) we need to shot down Russian planes and sink Russian ships. And believe me - nothing bad will happen. Turkey and Ukraine did it /8
...and Russia did not nuke them or anything. You will see Russia will stop, cry "it is unfair!" and disappear, like they did it in a Russian-Turkish conflict. 3) My fear is, that Russian plan is to escalate to the end, when they have a direct military conflict with Baltic, but /9
...other Nato countries do not hurry for help. This would be the end of the Nato, as the only reason for many countries to be in the Nato is the security guarantees. If let me say Germany just says "we need time", and France say the same, 10 countries can leave Nato that day../10
...Actually, I am sure, this is a master plan of Russians they had in the drawer since years, and wanted to implement it. The resistance in Ukraine has postponed this plan, but Russians never abandon fancy plans. So I am sure they will try to do it. In this case... /11
...It is important what Finland and Sweden will do. My guess is, they will help Lithuania, or Latvia and Estonia much faster and more willingly than other countries. Because they understand now, that only a collective security is what can stop Russia, and if they do not... /12
...intervene, they will be the next, and as Nato support for Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia was not sufficient, the support for Nato candidates will be even smaller. So it will be in their interests to help Baltic countries. Overall, I am sure, that Russia will lose this conflict /13
...exactly as it loses its war in Ukraine now. The question is - how fast, with what costs and with what damage to our intra-Nato and intra-EU relations and the level of multilateral trust. It is in our interests to push Russia back fast, effectively and decisive. END.
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