Thread by @ArmsControlWonk

North Korea is probably moving toward deploying tactical nuclear weapons to frontline artillery units. 🧵

Kim Jong Un just presided over a meeting of the Central Military Commission that made a decision "adopting important military measures to enhance the operational capabilities of the frontline units."
kcna.kp/en/article/q/1…

The North Korean statement today doesn't specify what those measures are, but it echoes what North Korea said on April 16 when it test-launched a short-range ballistic missile for nuclear missions. The two statements together probably tell the whole story.
kcna.kp/en/article/q/e…

In April, North Korea tested a new missile "of great significance in drastically improving the firepower of the frontline long-range artillery units and enhancing the efficiency in the operation of tactical nukes of the DPRK ..." That's unusually direct for them BTW.

This follows Kim's 2021 statement that North Korea would "develop tactical nuclear weapons to be used as various means according to the purposes of operational duty and targets of strike in modern warfare..."

The new solid-propellant short-range ballistic missile. has a range of 110 km and an apogee of 25 km. (North Korea may have tested it again on June 5.) It is explicitly designated as being nuclear-armed.
en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN202204…

The North Koreans are treating this new missile as though it is a big deal. It was highlighted at both the photo exhibit for the 90th anniversary of the KPA (left) and the anniversary parade (right).

The April 16 test-firing was conducted in the presence of "commanders of the large combined units of the Korean People's Army," which is rather unusual for North Korea. Usually, Kim watches the tests with just relevant party officials and scientists.

The implication of inviting the unit commanders is that they are there to see the new nuclear-armed missile that Kim will be placing under their command. #ThanksKJU

I presume that giving frontline artillery units a nuclear mission is a big enough change for North Korea, which has previously concentrated nuclear-armed missiles under the KPA Strategic Rocket Force, that Kim decided to formalize it at CMC meeting.

One question relates to command-and-control. What procedures will North Korea adopt for the authority and ability of frontline military units to use nuclear weapons? Presumably those procedures are spelled out in the "important document" drawn up by the KPA General Staff.

BTW: Highly recommend these 2017 musings by @nktpnd and @NarangVipin on possible DPRK nuclear command-and-control from @WarOnTheRocks. warontherocks.com/2017/09/comman…

As I have written over-and-over again, North Korea plans the preemptive use of nuclear weapons against US forces in South Korea and Japan to "repel" a US invasion. Even wrote a whole novel premised on this plan -- and it ends badly.
amazon.com/Commission-Rep…

North Korean leaders have long thought about nuclear weapons in this way, but what is different now is that North Korea is developing the systems necessary to make this plan of action credible. I would expect North Korea to significantly increase the size of its nuclear arsenal.

This is why I wanted Trump to take the deal in Hanoi. Yes, the deal would have left in place a North Korean nuclear deterrent. But rolling back what Kim had in 2019 wasn't as important IMHO as heading off what he's now building in 2022. But, hey, no one listens to me.