Couple of general thoughts based on observing various takes:
(i) Status quo in Afghanistan prior to the withdrawal wasn't sustainable as some imagine. The military and security situation seemed rather similar to the deterioration in northern and western Iraq in 2013-2014.
(ii) There wasn't going to be a political solution/'power sharing.' Should have been obvious considering the Taliban sees its project as an Islamic emirate and has used that title in its communiqués.
(iii) Post note: certainly true people did not anticipate the speed of this collapse. That said, I remember as far back as 2014 some speculation in light of how Iraq's security deteriorated: 'Now just imagine what Afghanistan will look like post-withdrawal.'
On question whether Baghdadi could have been taken alive, it's unlikely. The reported manner in which he was killed is similar to the death of IS figure Abu Ali al-Anbari in 2016. A special ops raid came down and Anbari blew himself up. aymennjawad.org/21877/the-biog…
Also re. the question of succession: there's a guy who repeatedly turns up in insider testimonies as 'al-Hajj Abdullah': a deputy of Baghdadi. Check some examples here aymennjawad.org/22273/advice-t…
al-Hajj Abdullah also appears here in the 'Hashimi Advice' going back to 2017, as an obscure figure alongside Baghdadi with whom it was difficult to communicate aymennjawad.org/23234/dissent-…
Members of Islamic State’s Jaysh Khalid bin al-Waleed have gone out of the Yarmouk Basin to participate in fighting against govt alongside the rebels (heard from both sides of the frontlines). If so, looks like this was a condition Jaysh Khalid imposed for a ceasefire.
As one source puts it: ‘With the presence of frogs [traitors] and the Free Army betraying each other, there is no means except to stand shoulder to shoulder and go forward with each other.’
Approximately 50 Jaysh Khalid fighters have gone out of the Yarmouk Basin to fight alongside rebels: some are new civilian recruits from the recent campaign to recruit fighters against Syrian government. Others are veterans.