He'll be hosted from 26-28 June at the G7 summit by Chancellor Scholz of Germany (they'll be at Schloss Elmau, photo below)
A beautiful location in the Bavarian forest, between Garmisch-Partenkirchen & Mittenwald (and a great biking route). 1/8
This is Biden's 4th trip to Europe in 18 months, showing his priority of revitalizing allied & partner cooperation.
Since taking office, several recent surveys & polls from all the EU nations have shown an increased trust & confidence in US leadership. pewresearch.org/global/2021/06… 2/
There are several big ticket items associated with this G7 conference:
-EU and Global security
-Economic issues linked to COVID recovery; food & energy security
-Climate
-Cyber
-Migration & immigration
-Countering transnational threat effects on economies
3/
Then, on 28-29 June he'll be with Spain's President Sanchez (picture below) in Madrid at an "off-site" NATO Conference.
Significant agenda items:
POTUS will "shop" US thoughts on a new NATO strategic concept (the first since 2010) 4/
The 2010 concept had a benign view of Russia, no comment on China expansion. This one will be different.
NATO force posture another issue...with many nations significantly increasing defense spending plans.
Of course, Sweden & Finland NATO membership is a key topic. 5/
Other agenda items for small groups: cyber threats, climate change, space operations, immigration.
And, of course, the leaders will discuss further ways to assist Ukraine and affect Russia's ability to wage war.
There likely will be discussion of NATO Black Sea operations... 6/
What's most interesting to me (having provided input to and having felt the effects of past NATO summits) is that this one will be very different.
Because NATO more united than they've been in the last 3 decades.
Interestingly, nations from Asia will also be at the summit. 7/
G7 & NATO summits are always have a jammed packed agenda. This one seems even more so.
There's always some contention, but appears this one is headed more toward common collaboration.
Viel Gluck & Buena Suerte to all participants...the world is depending on the outcomes.
8/8
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I've been hesitant to write a 🧵on the current tactical situation & what might happen next. But @DAlperovitch's view of potential outcomes (RT below) cause me to weigh in.
His view is plausible, but I don't believe it accurately portrays the current situation. 1/
In both the Donbas & Kherson, it appears the RU are following their playbook.
1. Russian Massive Arty barrages 2. Russian Attempts Recon in Force (RIF) 3. Russian targets civilians 4. RU focus on logistics build/regeneration 5. RU lacks Combined Arms Operation action 2/
At the same time, UKR is required to slightly adapt their tactics & operational design
1. UA conducts close counterfire fight vs RU arty 2. UA thwarts RU RIF 3. UA incorporating arms & logistics from West 4. UA employs limited Combined Arms capability. 3/
In the coming days, Americans may here about Lithuania's blockade of the RU enclave of Kalinigrad.
Few Americans know about this Russian enclave WEST of several NATO nations. I introduced the importance of its strategic importance to @CNN in December.
During an interview, the terrific @MarquardtA asked me why the US wasn't delivering the weapons "some" in UKR said they had requested (1000 artillery, 500 tanks, etc).
I cited @SecDef press conference from Madrid yesterday, where Austin rebuked the same question. 1/9
The @SecDef noted he was specifically coordinating equipment transfer and weapons priorities with Ukraine's Defense Minister Reznikov.
Reznikov's top priorities are:
-Long Range fires
-Armor vehicles
-Mid-range ADA systems
-Howitzers
Then Austin provided some numbers...2/
-Reznikov asked for 10 battalions of artillery, the west has provided 12.
-R asked for 200 tanks, UKR has received 270
-Ukraine received 97,000 anti-tank missiles, more than they requested, which is also more than the number of tanks in the entire world. 3/
Due to the 1/6 report, 2A legislation & economic issues, details of Donbas battles & the illegal Russian invasion of Ukraine are not at the forefront.
UA isn't "losing" & the action isn't stalled. It remains a slugfest in the east.
Here's a new 🧵on equipping UA. 1/21
As I said in past threads, the "new phase" of the fight (which started in early April), brought change.
-RU focus is on massing artillery, attempts at breakthrough.
-UA focus is logistics, active defense & maintaining will.
I've used this slide to describe the major shifts. 2/
In the last few days, the @nytimes, @washingtonpost, @WSJ & others have reported Ukraine's demand for more combat equipment.
UA needs support, lots of it. It's important to understand the scope of their "asks," the art of the possible & the associated logistics requirements. 3/
Normally I have no problem sleeping. But after watching the first Congressional 1/6 report, I needed to write some things down.
So many disturbing things:
-Barr's comments
-Kushner's dismissal of WH counsel advice
-the witness testimony
-the extensive new video
A 🧵 1/9
Congresswomen's @RepLizCheney description of events was masterful & yet extremely upsetting. She described the state of our democracy being in grave danger.
But it was @BennieGThompson opening remarks, and his comments about our Constitutional oath, that has me wide-eyed 2/
As a soldier, and a few times as a government official, I've taken that oath. I've also given it every time I promoted someone or was promoted myself.
It's sacred.
I learned to recite it from memory after being chided by a 1SG for reading it from a card when I was a Captain. 3/