Responses to this tweet say this was a "command point of the Russian 20th Army (military unit 89425, Voronezh)"

The vital thing here is Ukraine is using GMLRS to target higher level command posts

This kills the best logistical staffers & signals needed for offensive ops👇
1/
Please also note the use of commandeered civilian vehicles in this 20th Army headquarters.

An artillery heavy combat environment chews up soft skin tactical trucks & 4-wheel SUV sized liaison/utility vehicles very quickly.

An Army headquarters running short of mil-spec light
2/
...utility vehicles such that they are using commercial vehicles W/O spare parts in the supply system says a lot about losses to date.

Given Russian General's propensity to both demand and get the best for themselves at the price of the front line conscript.

3/
If after 4-months of fighting a Russian Army HQ inside Ukraine isn't 100% mil-spec vehicles.

You are looking at a very visible marker for a catastrophic soft skin vehicular loss rate.

4/End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Jun 27
This is the single most important Ukraine battlefield map for the next month or so of fighting.

Ukraine's recent strikes have demonstrated they have the 85 km range version of GMLRS.

This map shows GMLRS coverage versus Russian artillery ammo rail logistics depots.

1/
Right now Ukraine is racing to strike every one of these five depots with GMLRS before Russia can disperse the concentrated tonnage of artillery munitions in them.

These depots are covered by the full bell, book, & candle of Russian integrated air defenses with S-400, S-350,
2/
... Pantsir & Tor.

To defeat them, Ukraine has been doing coordinated Toska-U & GMLRS saturation strikes from multiple azimuths & trajectories to overload Russian fire control channels.

These kind of strikes take time to set up between the evaluation of air defenses & the
3/
Read 10 tweets
Jun 27
@Ralphabet99 Logistical pauses are normal after a major operation is concluded.

Russia stopping it's shellfire such that FIRMS doesn't see hot spots is a completely new operational pattern in Donbas we haven't seen before.

It may be a leadership change issue, but previous fired
1/
@Ralphabet99 ...Russian generals didn't cause the volume of shells to drop from 60K a day to undetectable.

The Belarus ammo shipments & Western intelligence talking about Russian shell shortages are the background for this new operational pattern.

2/
@Ralphabet99 The new operational pattern suggests Russia now has to conserve shells & rockets after shooting over 7 million of them.

The longer the shell pause. The bigger the Russian logistical problems with shell reserves.

The more even the 'artillery playing field' with Ukraine.

3/
Read 4 tweets
Jun 27
Alright, this is a logistical thread 🧵revisiting roller conveyors.

The photo at the lower right in the retweet is a Soviet era railway mechanized roller conveyor that assists in the loading of wooden boxes into break bulk railway cars.

1/
I've gone on at length about roller conveyors history, role in WW2 military operations and how they are being used in US military cargo planes to move pallets of weapons to Ukraine.

3/
I've seen exactly two photos of these Soviet era railway mechanized roller conveyors, alternately called "traction conveyor," prior to this one.

They are a key logistical asset of the Russian military and all of its standard wooden boxes for artillery & mortar shells are

4/
Read 11 tweets
Jun 16
@ChrisO_wiki @chefjoseandres I disagree for a couple of reasons.

Here is the 1st reason:

amazon.com/Collapse-Germa…
@ChrisO_wiki @chefjoseandres Mierzejewski's "The Collapse of the German War Economy, 1944-1945..." which would be more accurately subtitled "How Bureaucratic Fights of Ultra Intelligence Delayed Giving the German Economy a Coal Distribution Heart Attack Via Strategic Bombing."

Mierzejewski's key
3/
Read 14 tweets
Jun 15
>>100 rounds of ammo within weeks

I am going to presume that means pods of GMLRS. That is 600 GMLRS rounds.

Ten MLRS launchers in Ukrainian hands can fire all that in a day.

This is "make believe" military aid.🤡👇
1/4
So, it looks like the Atlantic Council was right and I was wrong writing the following because they knew the utterly pathetic levels of GMLRS ammunition the Biden Administration was going to provide.

2/4
I'm sorry to get Ukraine & it's supporter's hopes up with that thread.

I had no clue as to the level of make believe symbolism the Biden Administration was going to engage in to publicly appease the Putin Regime.

3/4
Read 4 tweets
Jun 15
I don't have the words to express how militarily _Silly_ the Russian Air Force standoff missile strike shown in the tweet below is. So I'm going to drop some WW2 photos to calibrate your eyes to the silliness.

Rail Logistical 🧵
1/
This is a damage-assessment photograph taken on July 8, 1944 after an American air raid on the French Rouen-Sotteville marshaling yards.

The raid was a part of the allied "Transportation Campaign" to isolate the Normandy beachhead from Nazi troops.

3/
web.archive.org/web/2018100410… Image
It took a few hours for the German & French workers at the Rouen-Sotteville marshaling yards to repair around the seven bomb holes.

Visually, it is easy to see why. There are a lot of parallel tracks which still go from one end of yard to the other.

You can switch between
4/
Read 10 tweets

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