Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Jun 26, 2022 27 tweets 7 min read Read on X
My daily update! #ukrdailyupdate

Today is a bit light on news so I am adding fun videos.

If you would like to view the map, here is the link: google.com/maps/d/u/0/edi…
First, the Kharkiv area: It is not well pictured, but Ukraine repelled a Russian attack into Udy (1). There were also ambiguous reports of Russia attacking Pytomnyk (2) and Verkhnii Saltiv (3). I believe these attacks were overnight, as I found them in the morning report.
The Izyum area: Russia is firing artillery everywhere. Ukraine is targeting the main supply roads into Izyum with their artillery. And probably shooting other areas as well, I just don't have information on those targets.
Apparently Ukraine still controls Mazanivka because they reportedly repelled an attack there today (4). I thought they lost this town a while ago, and I had only heard of fighting in the wooded areas around the town since then.
In fact, I am not sure I believe they control the town, but let's roll with it I guess. Ukraine also repelled attacks on Krasnopillya (5), Dolyna (6), and Bohorodychne (7).
The Severodonetsk area: Russia now has complete control over Severodonetsk (8), Syrotyne (9,10), Voronove (11), and Borivske (12). All of these areas were entirely abandoned by Ukrainian forces, and are now under total control of the Russian forces.
Russians are now shifting their focus to Lysychansk, and pushing hard to fully control Bila Hora (13). I wrongly said they captured this town the other day. There is heavy fighting going on in the southern outskirts of Lysychansk around the Gelatin and Rubber factories (14).
Russia captured Vovchoyarivka yesterday and pushed from there into the outskirts of Verkhnokamyanka today (15). Ukraine has launched a counter attack in this area to push Russia away (16).

Russia is bombarding every road in this area with artillery, as I have marked.
Before I move on from this area, about 50km north of Lysychansk, in Svatove, Ukraine hit a Russian warehouse with a missile. I have heard it was a Tochka-U, but some people are speculating it could be HIMARS.
Here is that location on the map:
The Bakhmut area: Ukraine repelled an attack on Pokrovske from the north east (17). From what I understand, the attack from the east (18) is a bit stronger, but Ukrainian defenses are holding on. This town is an extremely important defensive anchor for the Ukrainian line.
A bit further south, Russia is slowly capturing ground in the direction of Vershyna (19). This town is not considered as important as Pokrovske because the town behind it, Zaitseve, is a good defensive position.
Not to be confused with the other Zaitseve a few km to the south, which is also pretty important. I wish I were kidding, I'm not.

There is ongoing heavy fighting around Semyhirya (20) and Kodema (21).
The South Donetsk area: Russia is making a more concerted effort to attack Marinka recently, and Ukraine repelled another attack there today (22).
Speaking of Marinka, here is a video of a Ukrainian recon unit firing mortars into Russian infantry. Marinka looks like a hellish place to be right now.
Yesterday there were reports that Ukraine captured Yehorivka, Shevchenko, and Novomaiorske, but I did not mark them on my map because there wasn't any confirmation. Today, I saw a report of a Russian counter attack into Yehorivka (23) and Novomaiorske (24).
These reports were unconfirmed, and I mark these positions on my map with a lump of salt. It is entirely possible Russia still controls all of these areas, I am skeptical.
Speaking of skeptical, The Kherson/Mykolaiv area: The past few days have offered tantalizing news about Vysokopillya. Yesterday there was news (from both Russian and Ukrainian sources) that Russian forces pulled out of the town.
Today there is news of Russia attacking the town from Potomkyne (26). Did Ukraine capture the town (25)? I really don't know. I have marked it that way for now, but you should be skeptical. Why? Because news of Ukraine capturing Kyselivka (27) appear to be fabricated.
I see zero evidence backing the claim that they control the town, and I see pretty solid evidence that Russia does. The day Ukraine declared the capture, I posted that it was likely disinformation, and I think at this point it is obvious that it was.
Now, for a list of videos I found interesting today. First, a Ukrainian mortar team doing their thing.
Have you ever wondered what it is like to be on the receiving end of a Ukrainian ambush? This Russian filmed it for you.
Ukrainian special operations forces helped dial in artillery fire on a Russian position, and it did some serious damage.
The Russian Legion driving out to cleanse Ukraine of Putinists and Rashists.
Here are the results of Russian terrorism. A Russian strike on civilian infrastructure.
Finally, a video that requires no description.

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More from @AndrewPerpetua

May 23
Ukraine does not have an adequate air force, but it can create the effects of an air force using other methods and tools. For example, long-range drones can be deployed in a series of nested concentric circles to mine and harass supply roads, effectively cutting them off.

One layer of drones could strike targets 100 km out, the next at 80 km, then 60 km, 40 km, and finally, the remaining drones could dominate the last 20–30 km leading to the front.

With sufficient drone coverage density, the impact on enemy logistics can closely mirror that of a conventional air force—cutting off supplies and limiting troop movements.

Furthermore, the development of heavier strike drones, with payloads between 100 and 500 kg, can replicate the effects of traditional airstrikes. In conjunction with attack drones, this combination becomes a deadly one-two punch: attack drones locate and relay target positions, and heavier strike drones follow up with rapid and destructive precision.

Once the enemy's rear positions are degraded to this extent, the front becomes unsustainable. The opposing force will be forced to withdraw, regardless of intent.

Ukraine does not need large offensive pushes to defeat Russia. It needs extremely high-density drone coverage to deny Russian sustainment. Land can be taken back piece by piece, without committing to large and costly ground assaults.
All but the heavy strike drones can be done with the technology that Ukraine has available today, right now. The strike drones could be developed in short order. This is a realistic path to victory using the tools and resources available. And one which Europe could help using financing alone.
Europe could also provide longer range weapons for Ukraine’s existing aircraft, which is frankly a much more unrealistic path forward. Albeit possible. And Europe doesn’t really have the weapons available to give, so would require making them first.
Read 4 tweets
May 10
After Trump put Fedex guys in charge of USPS, the democrats should issue an official warning that any aspect of USPS that might get “privatized” under trump will be immediately seized, without compensation, by the following administration and congress.
There should be an open air understanding that any aspect of the government privatized by Trump will be seized back without compensation. We will eminent domain your ass, and change any law (or court makeup) to make it legal.
The property of the people isn’t for sale. That’s the message.
Read 4 tweets
May 3
The US saw Russia using nothing but golf carts and ladas in Ukraine and said fuck it, we're going on all in. We're cancelling all armor procurement. Battle golf carts are the future. Who needs firepower when you have bags of meat strapped to a go-cart?
Many Americans will die, and that is a sacrifice the Army is willing to make. Drive the golf cart full steam into a drone swarm. The guys in the back will have tons of ability to shoot back before they die, since there will be no walls or doors to get in the way.
All paths will be heavily mined, which is why we got rid of mraps. The mraps would just get disabled anyway, and then you'd be wishing you had a golf cart to ride. So, instead of wasting our time with armor, lets cut to the chase and deploy you on a golf cart from the start.
Read 5 tweets
May 1
Interesting uptick in Russian dive bomber drones recently. I've wondered why they were developed then suddenly disappeared. They always seemed the most effective type of drone.
Russians are using dive bombers to destroy vehicles. Much more efficient than suiciding the drone and deals the same damage.
Magyar used to use dive bombers to destroy tanks, but stopped for some reason.
Read 8 tweets
Apr 26
Sitting here listening to a news report from the 1970s where the police broke into the wrong house in a police raid, where every American was... normal. They were outraged, they wanted immediate accountability and changes to the law. And then congress... changed the law. Apparently the US had a functional society at some point.
Literally in 4 days there will be a major supreme court case in the US about this. That law from the 70s, the federal government has basically declared the law doesn't count. On Tuesday, four days from now, there is a Supreme Court case where the courts will decide whether that law written by congress is going to be followed or whether the judiciary gets to invent their own laws and ignore congress.
And nobody is talking about this, for some reason. Even after literally yesterday where Trump literally signed an executive order THAT ALLOWS FEDERAL AGENTS TO SEARCH YOUR HOUSE WITHOUT A WARRANT.
Read 6 tweets
Apr 18
I see several things happening in Ukraine right now:

1: Ukraine has pivoted to a drone based defense. Most of the gains you see Russia making right now are coming as a result of one of two things. A: Inferior Ukrainian drone units or B: Overwhelming Numerical Superiority.
When I say an inferior drone unit, I do not mean the pilots are bad, or even necessarily that their construction is bad. It could be as simple as not having access to enough drones, or not having enough pilots. I simply mean the unit isn’t strong enough for the task.
Where we see the strongest drone units, we see Russia struggling to advance, Usually only advancing with extreme numerical superiority and enormous casualties.
Read 15 tweets

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