Michael Wagener Profile picture
Jun 26 11 tweets 3 min read
This #ENGvNZ test series is just bizarre. You can count on one hand series in history where the two teams have been as even a these two in the 1st innings.

No team has had a 50 run 1st innings lead in any test.

The difference in collective 1st innings batting averages is 0.77.
And yet, England have already won the series and are looking at a whitewash.

And it's not like NZ have batted particularly badly in the 3rd innings.

In every match, England have been set between 275 and 300.

Teams don't normally chase scores in that range successfully.
So what has gone wrong?

1. England has batted very well.

It's important to give credit where it's due. There are two teams on the field, and England have been extraordinary.

But that's not th he whole story.
2. The Duke's ball

The Duke's ball just doesn't suit the NZ bowlers, who are much more effective with the Kookaburra. One of the key ways that NZ have got wickets in the 4th innings has been variable bounce. The Duke's doesn't offer that, and NZ haven't had good plans to use it.
3. Bowling options.

New Zealand's 4 best 4th innings bowlers in the last 5 years have been Wagner, Southee, Jamieson and Ajaz Patel. Of those only Southee has bowled more than 7 overs so far in the 3 fourth innings combined.

Jamieson was due to injury, so that's understandable.
Wagner is also understandable, as the Duke's ball really didn't suit his bowling style. But Patel's omission is baffling. He was given 2 overs in the first match. He beat the bat twice, but was hit for a couple of 6s. Then he wasn't given the ball again.
It's also worth remembering how Ajaz Patel broke into the NZ side to begin with - he got selected based on 3 seasons of consistently picking up bags of wickets in the 3rd and 4th innings of matches.

He's a specialist at just the thing that NZ needed. And NZ haven't bowled him.
If Bracewell was an outstanding bowler who had been putting up numbers that suggested that he deserves the spot instead, that would be understandable.

But Bracewell is Wellington's 3rd choice spinner. Before this tour he had taken 27 first class wickets in 36 innings.
Now there might be some reasons that we don't know about. Perhaps Patel has been bowling really badly in the nets, or perhaps Bracewell has a photo of Gary Stead in a compromising position. But it seems most likely that the reason Patel hasn't been used is 3 Ben Stokes sixes.
And that right there is the power of aggressive cricket.

Those 3 shots caused NZ to abandon the player most likely to have won them this series.

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More from @Mykuhl

Sep 29, 2020
There was another really interesting innings in the #IPL match today. This time by Kane Williamson.

He scored 41(26) at Abu Dhabi. That's a strike rate of 157.7, which is the second highest for any score over 40 at Abu Dhabi this IPL. (Top was Suryakumar Yadav's 47(28) SR 167.9)
That, in itself, isn't particularly interesting. What is interesting is how he scored those runs.

He faced only 3 dot balls. He scored off the other 23. Those three dots were a ball he hit too hard to a fielder, one that hit him and they got a leg bye and the ball he got out on.
He scored 5 boundaries, all fours. So he scored 20 runs in boundaries, and 21 in non-boundaries.

He scored at a strike rate over 150, despite scoring fewer boundary runs than run runs. This graph is every innings this IPL with 30+ runs at 135+ Strike rate.

Williamson's in red.
Read 12 tweets
Sep 27, 2020
I'm going to make a few comments on Rahul Tewatia's innings, because, statistically, it's really interesting.

First of all, the rate of acceleration was astounding. Image
I find that breaking T20 innings into 15 ball groups is often really informative. It's very, very informative here. Image
Another good technique is to look at using exponential smoothing to look at a batsman's scoring rate. For Tewatia's innings, his smoothed rate is astoundingly low at the start, then astoundingly high at the end. Image
Read 8 tweets
Sep 26, 2020
Today is our iron wedding anniversary.

We're having a high-iron dinner.
Mmmmm Image
Seasoned, then into the oven at 90°c for a long time. Image
Read 5 tweets
Sep 11, 2020
While I'm loathe to praise a new tax, I've had a think about the new tax that Labour is proposing and while I think they could have done it a lot better, I can see some of the rationale in those numbers. 1/n
According to TradingEconomies, we're expected to have a government debt of about $98 billion at the end of this year.

The cost of servicing that debt based on our current interest rates is about $610 million per year. 2/n
A tax that raises $550 million from the top 2% income earners almost completely pays the maintenance costs of the debt that's kept our economy afloat during the pandemic created recession.

They'll be hoping that bracket creep will cover the rest. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
Aug 19, 2020
Normally on a Tuesday/Wednesday I put out a cricket stats article. I set aside time every Tuesday for doing analysis.

This week was no different, except that I decided to do some more work on a large project that I've been attempting for about 4 months, looking at ODI captaincy.
As a result, I didn't have anything to publish. But I did notice something in a different sport.

Ever since I was about 10 years old, I've followed (vaguely) the Portland Trailblazers. I saw them playing a match against the Bulls and I decided they'd be my team. 2/n
It's hard to follow too many sports, so I've generally only checked in on them from time to time, but there's still a bit of loyalty there, and I know more players from them than from any football side, so I have a small degree of fandom, without being particularly obsessive. 3/n
Read 12 tweets
Aug 1, 2020
Somehow an Indian fan managed to find a way to make England vs Ireland into further evidence of the greatness of MS Dhoni.
In the only ODI match that Billings and Dhoni have been on the same field for, Dhoni played a "mature" "anchoring" innings of 25(36) when India were chasing 322. India fell 5 runs short.
After people telling me that I'm wrong and that Dhoni is an expert in chasing in English conditions, I looked into the numbers.

Some fans are not going to like me for doing this....
Read 9 tweets

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