Thread by @PhillipsPOBrien

Will be interesting if this translates into decreases in Russian combat intensity. Anecdotally there is some evidence of a concerted Ukrainian attempt to hit depots (smart) and now they have more and more systems that can do so.

https://twitter.com/iaponomarenko/status/1541343878489464832

One example.

https://twitter.com/jimmysecuk/status/1541340149161906176

Putting this here as it’s an important question, and I don’t know. I heard going into the war that the Russians had many years worth of ammo stocks. However wartime usage is always far higher than anticipated, so it might not have been as large as calculated.

https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1541348339634954240

The other thing to consider is that even if you have stocks or ammo/equipment, if you don’t have working systems of large depots moving the supplies to small depots and then front line forces, doesn’t matter what your stocks are.

Germany and Japan actual built enormous stocks of munitions in 1944, larger than any other year of the war: however they struggled to deploy them to the front.

If Ukraine keeps destroying the depots (and the rail lines that serves the depots) while whittling down Russia truck numbers, that’s just as If not more important than the amount of ammo stocks Russia has. Hope this helps.

A few comments on people are saying. It’s really hard to hide a large munitions depot. Not only are they big (lots of stuff) but they need to be close to rail lines. There is constant traffic in and out, and Ukraine can get intel on many levels, from local info to satellite, etc

Also worth thinking of things like HIMARS as a form of World War 2 AirPower, only more accurate. What took a plane in 1944 can now be attempted from the ground (which is why the range of the ammo given to Ukraine is so important).

Two final comments. It should be apparent in the coming weeks if these attacks are working. Just watch Russian combat intensity. If Ukr is systematically destroying Russian depots throughout the region, it will have an impact that can be observable.

Second, hard to say how/whether Russian logistics have improved since the start of the invasion. They certainly seem able to supply their forces behind the lines in the Donbas, thus all the heavy firepower. However this is the easy part.

The test of a military logistics system is its ability to support a fast advance. Once you move forward it’s a challenge of organization, trucks, stocks, etc. tbh, Russia has not advanced enough in the Donbas to make a judgement on the state of their logistics.

Sorry, this thread is an example of one quick tweet spinning out of control. Wasn’t expecting it to grow like this. Need to get back to work!

You can see a large Russian ammo depot blow up in space.

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/status/1541465455109586945

Pentagon briefing today provides a little more evidence to back up the claim that the Ukrainians are targeting Russian logistics with HIMARS. Its a bit of a wink/nudge, but the defense official says while Ukr targetting is up to Ukr, its assumed they are doing what the US does.

and thats prioritizing command and control, logistics and large troop concentrations. Considering all the praise about how quickly the Ukrainians picked up US training, think we can say that this is what they are prioritizing. (link to whole transcript) defense.gov/News/Transcrip…

Later in the interview the official, who clearly has some experience with the Ukrainians receiving HIMARS training, goes out of their way to praise how quickly the Ukrainians learned the system: 'pretty extraordinary'.

Other things worth noting--a great deal of praise for the decision to defend Severodonetsk. Says the Ukrainians did it with relatively few troops and exacted a heavy tool. Maybe most impressively, the Ukrainians withdrew on their own when they wanted. Russians couldnt stop them.

Thats what I was trying to say yesterday about the withdrawal from SDonetsk being a clear sign of Russian strategic failure.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1541036376703090689?s=20&t=aJFPv8fdF0iI3RayqlO2Rg

Then goes on to point out that this area of Russian success is really tiny. Puts it in Washington DC terms which might not make sense, but basically DC and some suburbs (Fairfax county). Indeed has a dig at all the people talking about the area likes it large. It really is tiny.

Last thing worth noting is the way the official danced around the question of Russian force regeneration going forward. Says signs the Russians are doing things differently, but also suffering significant costs--and then just backs away from answering.

All in all some interesting things in there. Most important seems to be that they are very impressed with Ukrainian ability to learn the HIMARS systems, they are preparing more the be used quickly, and that the Ukr are probably using US targeting priorities.

Interesting, seems to have been a real decline in Russian shelling yesterday. If this continues for a few days, think we start having evidence that the Ukrainians are targeting Russian ammo depots successfully.

https://twitter.com/davidkarban/status/1541460980772773888

Btw, take artillery preponderance away from the Russian army and you have a military that: using scientific language, can be described as crappy.