Ryan Burge 📊 Profile picture
Jun 27 5 tweets 3 min read
New from me @Religion_Public - who are those who were cheering the Dobbs decision last week?

First - it's important to point out that 1/5 Americans want to make abortion illegal in the United States.

But what are their demographics, religion, and ideology?

THREAD (1/5). Image
I was pretty shocked to learn that the racial composition of those opposed to abortion looks almost exactly like the racial composition of the United States overall.

White folks are not overrepresented in the anti-abortion subset of the population. Image
In terms of religion, the gaps aren't as large as many people would assume.

Catholics are 18% of America and 20% of the anti-abortion subset.

Protestants are 12 points different (46% vs. 34%), while the nones are 21% vs 34%. But no other differences to speak of. Image
However, when it comes to church attendance that disparity between the two groups grows substantially.

49% of anti-abortion people attend church weekly or more. It's just a quarter of the gen pop.

It's notable that 31% of anti-abortion folks attend less than yearly, tho. Image
Finally, the political ideology of anti-abortion Americans is obviously more conservative. 63% of them ID as conservative vs. 40% of the gen pop.

However, 18% of anti-abortion people ID as liberal - much higher than I would have guessed. Image

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More from @ryanburge

May 3
I'm just going to throw a bunch of graphs in this thread about views of abortion.

Here's a good place to start - allow abortion for any reason.

1977 vs 2021
Entire Sample: 37% to 54%
Democrats: 35% to 71%
Independents: 35% to 44%
Republicans: 39% to 34%
There were some *huge* shifts among Democrats when it comes to abortion in the following scenarios between 2016 and 2021.

The couple is not married
2016: 53% in favor
2021: 70%

Cannot afford more children
2016: 56%
2021: 72%

Wants no more children
2016: 58%
2021: 74%
Here those six scenarios among the three types of white Christians - Evangelicals, mainline, and Catholic.

There is overwhelming support for access to abortion in the case of rape, the mother's health, and serious defect in the child among all three of these groups.
Read 22 tweets
Nov 2, 2021
Something's broken in the new GSS data

Share in 2018 vs 2021:
Evangelicals: 22.5% to 13.3%
Mainline: 10.8% to 11.4%
B. Prot: 11.4% to 6.4%
Catholic: 23% to 21.3%
Jewish: 1.6% to 1.5%
Other Faith: 6.2% to 7.6%
Nones: 23.1% to 28.4%
Unclassified: 6.5% to 15.8%

COVID ruined this.
This is with the other weight supplied by the GSS. It doesn't fix the problem.

Somehow a lot more people chose odd responses for religious affiliation.

But, that impacted black Protestants and evangelicals. And no other tradition. This is going to take a while to sort out.
This thread is just watching me flail now.

I broke non-denoms away from the evangelical category here.

This data says that there are 2x non-denoms vs evangelicals in 2021.

That's non-sensical.

We're in the bad place.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 11, 2020
Here's a myth that won't die and really needs to.

"Evangelicals who aren't that devout are the ones who like Trump the most."

Fact: Trump's support among evangelicals is the highest among those who attend church the most. This has been true in every survey I've looked at. Image
And just so I show my work....

This is two party vote choice in 2016 and presidential approval in both 2017 and 2018 from the CCES among evangelicals.

In every single case, evangelicals who attended church more than once a week were the strongest Trump supporters. ImageImageImage
And add @socofthesacred to the mix, too.

The total sample size of the CCES 2016-2019 is over 160,000 respondents, as well. So, this is about as reliable as surveys get.

Read 4 tweets
May 29, 2020
One of the most important new measurements in political science is racial resentment. It's adjacent to racism, but tries to understand some of the thinking behind racist views.

This is a scale from zero (no resentment) to four.

The Qs are in the next tweet.
Over 60% of white evangelicals score a 3 or 4 on the scale, followed by 52.5% of Orthodox Christians.

It's about half of white Catholic in the top two categories, but mainline Prots aren't far behind (42.2%).

62.6% of agnostics and 70.6% of atheists score zero
Just to add on to this:

White evangelicals who attend church more than once a week have the highest racial resentment score of any attendance group.
Read 4 tweets

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