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Jun 27 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
@Ralphabet99 Logistical pauses are normal after a major operation is concluded.

Russia stopping it's shellfire such that FIRMS doesn't see hot spots is a completely new operational pattern in Donbas we haven't seen before.

It may be a leadership change issue, but previous fired
1/
@Ralphabet99 ...Russian generals didn't cause the volume of shells to drop from 60K a day to undetectable.

The Belarus ammo shipments & Western intelligence talking about Russian shell shortages are the background for this new operational pattern.

2/
@Ralphabet99 The new operational pattern suggests Russia now has to conserve shells & rockets after shooting over 7 million of them.

The longer the shell pause. The bigger the Russian logistical problems with shell reserves.

The more even the 'artillery playing field' with Ukraine.

3/
@Ralphabet99 The Russians running low of shell stocks qualifies as "Culminating point" in this war.

Time will tell.

4/End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 29
It looks like the US Army does plan to field a lot more light tanks than I thought in my earlier tweet.

See the article:

1/5
Text from the link:

The initial Mobile Protected Firepower (MPF) contract award will cover an initial low-rate production order of 96 vehicles. The Army expects to take delivery of the first examples, from an initial lot of 26 MPFs, in December 2023 and have its first unit
2/5
... fully equipped with them by 2025. The service presently plans to buy a total of 504 new light tanks, with most of them arriving by the end of 2035. It's not immediately clear if this figure includes any of the preproduction examples that
3/5
Read 8 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 28
These photos from @UAWeapons show a very important reality of the war in Ukraine.

Intense artillery wars fill the roads with super sharp debris like these fragments from a detonated M31A1 GMLRS.

Tire logistics🧵with a global starvation hook.
There are two things militaries always get wrong in a major war.

The amount of artillery munitions used and the amount of tires you need to support a war.

2/ Image
Major wars create road debris from h--l.

Military trucks and wheeled light utility vehicles run over that debris and lose their tires.

3/
Read 10 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 27
This is the single most important Ukraine battlefield map for the next month or so of fighting.

Ukraine's recent strikes have demonstrated they have the 85 km range version of GMLRS.

This map shows GMLRS coverage versus Russian artillery ammo rail logistics depots.

1/
Right now Ukraine is racing to strike every one of these five depots with GMLRS before Russia can disperse the concentrated tonnage of artillery munitions in them.

These depots are covered by the full bell, book, & candle of Russian integrated air defenses with S-400, S-350,
2/
... Pantsir & Tor.

To defeat them, Ukraine has been doing coordinated Toska-U & GMLRS saturation strikes from multiple azimuths & trajectories to overload Russian fire control channels.

These kind of strikes take time to set up between the evaluation of air defenses & the
3/
Read 10 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 27
Alright, this is a logistical thread 🧵revisiting roller conveyors.

The photo at the lower right in the retweet is a Soviet era railway mechanized roller conveyor that assists in the loading of wooden boxes into break bulk railway cars.

1/
I've gone on at length about roller conveyors history, role in WW2 military operations and how they are being used in US military cargo planes to move pallets of weapons to Ukraine.

3/
I've seen exactly two photos of these Soviet era railway mechanized roller conveyors, alternately called "traction conveyor," prior to this one.

They are a key logistical asset of the Russian military and all of its standard wooden boxes for artillery & mortar shells are

4/
Read 12 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 25
Responses to this tweet say this was a "command point of the Russian 20th Army (military unit 89425, Voronezh)"

The vital thing here is Ukraine is using GMLRS to target higher level command posts

This kills the best logistical staffers & signals needed for offensive ops👇
1/
Please also note the use of commandeered civilian vehicles in this 20th Army headquarters.

An artillery heavy combat environment chews up soft skin tactical trucks & 4-wheel SUV sized liaison/utility vehicles very quickly.

An Army headquarters running short of mil-spec light
2/
...utility vehicles such that they are using commercial vehicles W/O spare parts in the supply system says a lot about losses to date.

Given Russian General's propensity to both demand and get the best for themselves at the price of the front line conscript.

3/
Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Jun 16
@ChrisO_wiki @chefjoseandres I disagree for a couple of reasons.

Here is the 1st reason:

amazon.com/Collapse-Germa…
@ChrisO_wiki @chefjoseandres And this is the 2nd reason:

amazon.com/Bomber-Command…
@ChrisO_wiki @chefjoseandres Mierzejewski's "The Collapse of the German War Economy, 1944-1945..." which would be more accurately subtitled "How Bureaucratic Fights of Ultra Intelligence Delayed Giving the German Economy a Coal Distribution Heart Attack Via Strategic Bombing."

Mierzejewski's key
3/
Read 14 tweets

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