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Andrea Gilli Profile picture
@aa_gilli
Jun 28, 2022 • 10 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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A small thread on @NATO the #madridsummit the #strategicconcept and where the Alliance is moving, based on our report for @NATO_DefCollege

ndc.nato.int/news/news.php?… Image
This is a historic shift for NATO. Multilateralism is weakening when great powers competition is re-emerging. China, as anticipated yesterday, was discussed as its growth offers opportunities but also raises concerns. Image
World is moving East, and that’s why in Madrid PM of 🇯🇵 🇰🇷 🇦🇺 and 🇳🇿 will also participate. On this, see ndc.nato.int/download/downl…
Technological acceleration is reshaping our lives, our societies, our economies and the world. NATO Allies want to preserve their tech superiority. I have written on this highlighting both our advantages direct.mit.edu/isec/article/4… Image
As well as the risks and opportunities. ndc.nato.int/download/downl… NATO has launched a set of important initiatives, like DIANA, which will attract further attention at the summit and in the years to come.
A third issue is climate change. Climate change affects our societies and our economies but also our security. Climate security has been high on the agenda for NATO for some time. Image
These three structural factors are likely going to make the work for NATO harder: this calls for difficult choices. Is climate change more important than China? Is partnering around the world more important than addressing by crises?
The two final issues are covid and the war in Ukraine. Covid reminded us that security has a broader meaning than military capabilities: in lockdown and social distancing, you cannot do mil training and exercises. Covid reminded us critical dependencies. Image
The war in Ukraine will receive additional attention. Yesterday’s news that NATO will increase its NRRF from 40 to 300k highlights where we are heading. Other issues like mil mobility, permanent deployments, air defenses and modernization are coming up. Image
Entry of 🇸🇪 and 🇫🇮 complement this complex picture: two democracies, bringing mil capabilities, in the northern part, but Allies must all agree. Nato of the future will have to balance different priorities, strike trade-offs and make difficult choices.

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More from @aa_gilli

Andrea Gilli Profile picture
Apr 11
Suggellato dal prof. @guidotweet , sono andato a guardare la puntata di Piazza Pulita per ascoltare cosa ha detto il Magnifico Rettore dell’Universitá per Stranieri di Siena Tomaso Montanari./1
Dopo una serie di assurdità assortite, tra cui non riuscire a spiegare come il suo popolo della pace vada in piazza non contro Putin ma contro Von Der Leyen, Montanari dice che la Russia spende €90bn l’anno in difesa contro i €326 dei paesi UE, 4 volte tanto — afferma/2
Pertanto non sarebbe necessario spendere ulteriori risorse.

1. A rischio di essere petulante, 9-18-27-36: se la spesa russa è €90bn e quella europea €320bn, la spesa russa non è 4 volte quella europea./3
Read 11 tweets
Andrea Gilli Profile picture
Mar 15
Oggi ci sarà una manifestazione in molte piazze italiane. Ammetto che non ho capito del tutto il messaggio. Ma quest’occorrenza mi permette di fare una riflessione generale./1 Image
Da tre anni amici, colleghi, conoscenti o estranei che regolarmente chiedono lotte sindacali durissime, scioperi e ogni tipo di scontro sociale invocano la pace in Ucraina. È un loro diritto, ma non comprendo del tutto la logica./2
Quando gli altri vengono minacciati, devono arrendersi. Quando si tratta di noi, allora non si transige. Lotta dura senza paura.

O quando si tratta di invasioni brutali contro altri, non c’è nulla da fare: accettiamo i rapporti di forza./3
Read 5 tweets
Andrea Gilli Profile picture
Mar 13
I am reading many comments against EU ReArm — Europe’s military modernization plan. Let’s try to break down the discussion/1 Image
That war is costly, ugly and economically inefficient is a truism: also brawls, divorces and litigations are. Still, many pursue these options rather than going amicable solutions./2

web.stanford.edu/group/fearon-r…
It seems to me, many are not opposed to EU ReArm but to war: then we are dealing with cognitive dissonance./3
Read 9 tweets
Andrea Gilli Profile picture
Jan 16
Non sono del tutto d’accordo. Parto dalla fine. Le ore di insegnamento e di studio sono limitate. Come tali vanno ottimizzate. Come le ore dei medici. La scienza ci dice come curare le malattie. Ma la sanità ottimizza la scienza (medicina) e gli scienziati (i medici)./1
Possiamo discutere se questa ottimizzazione sia scienza o meno (ovviamente ci sono anche considerazioni etiche, legali, culturali e istituzionali), ma non relegherei la questione ad un dibattito tra opinioni/2
Ora entriamo al tema. Si deve insegnare latino e greco a scuola. Ci sono molte ragioni legittime (su cui non si deve essere necessariamente d’accordo), tra cui conservare conoscenza, e diffondere determinati valori. Ma se si dice che insegnare latino e greco aiuta a ragionare/3
Read 10 tweets
Andrea Gilli Profile picture
Jan 12
Early last week @GiorgiaMeloni flew to Mar-a-Lago likely to discuss with President-elect Donald Trumps the terms for the release of Italian journalist Cecilia Sala from an Iranian prison. Upon Meloni's return, Italy's media went crazy./1
after the possibility that 🇮🇹 may sign a contract with Elon Musk's Starlink for the supply of sat-based internet connectivity. I have read multiple counter-arguments and non makes much sense/2
1) Can we really trust Musk? This is a really abayed argument. Contracts are there to address uncertainty. Additionally, do we really think Musk is a moron? As he tries to sell his service worldwide, he would unplug his service to a G7 country for no reasons./3
Read 17 tweets
Andrea Gilli Profile picture
Nov 7, 2024
From the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, I tried to explain that a peace would be much more demanding than a war. Now we have the first hints./1 Image
Apparently, Donald Trump’s peace plan entails: freezing borders on current frontlines, no NATO for Ukraine and a European peacekeeping force to defend the demilitarized border between Ukraine and Russia./2
The challenge is not to achieve but to preserve the peace. For simplicity, let assume the front is 1.000 km & you need a brigade every 4km to defend it from further attacks. Let assume a notional brigade is made of 3k soldiers. (1000/4)x3000: It’s 750.000 deployed troops./3
Read 7 tweets

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