Thread by @SeDanSmith

@UN_MINUSMA's new mandate is due to be finalised tomorrow (29 June) by the UN Security Council. A short 🧵on what to expect and look out for:
#peacekeeping

1) The Mission's current two strategic priorities are likely to remain unchanged.
a) Support the implementation of Peace Agreement in northern #Mali
b) Support a Malian-led strategy to protect civilians, reduce intercommunal violence & reestablish state authority in the centre

2) The Council appears poised to support the SG's proposal for an internal review of MINUSMA. This will likely entail an analysis of the challenges hindering the implementation of the mandate, including the protection of civilians, and recommendations as to how to proceed.

3) Unsurprisingly, one of the most contentious issues during this year's UNSC negotiations has been MINUSMA's role in investigating and reporting on human rights violations in #Mali. Many member states have fought to reinforce the existing language in the mandate. Others haven't.

4) I say 'unsurprisingly' as we at @CivCenter noted this aspect in an op-ed published in @just_security earlier this month:
justsecurity.org/81932/preventi…

5) Given the wave of alleged human rights violations by the Malian army & Russian partners since the turn of the year, expect more focus on the conditions under which MINUSMA provides support to Malian forces. The UN's Human Rights Due Diligence Policy is a key part of this.

6) One final element of interest will be the extent to which the new mandate acknowledges the expressed wishes of the transitional Malian government.

a) Last month, the transitional government announced Mali's withdrawal from the G5 Sahel, including its soldiers from the Joint Force.

b) Meanwhile, Bamako has repeatedly made clear in recent months it does not want French aircraft flying in Malian airspace once Operation Barkhane has withdrawn - not even to support MINUSMA in emergencies.

7a) One would expect the new mandate to call for some kind of assessment of the extent to which MINUSMA can continue supporting the G5-JF in light of Mali's withdrawal.

7b) However, the UN is almost certainly going to have to find its own solution to boost its aerial protection in Gao and Ménaka - the Malian authorities are not at all inclined at this stage to revive cooperation with the French military.

8) One other topic of interest will be the extent to which the UNSC criticises the Malian transitional government for imposing restrictions on MINUSMA's movements to protect civilians and investigate HR abuses.

There is strong precedent in UNMISS's 2019 mandate.

9) We'd expect to see a similar paragraph in the resolution today, although the language may be a little softer since there is little chance of Russia agreeing to a resolution that 'strongly condemns' its allies in Mali's transitional government.