Thread by @adamvoge

The transfer window is dead! Long live the transfer window! With dreams of Raphinha seemingly gone, whom else could Arsenal target? I analyzed the numbers of 44 big-five-leagues wide players, and I'm gonna shoot 'em at ya rapid-fire.

My disclaimer: This is 100% based on stats. I'm a proponent of the eye test and recommend you watch (full games, not comps) these guys before forming your opinions.

My criteria: High output, great ball control, creativity. Weighted for league and age. Ideal=25 +PL experienced.

Because Raphinha was the target, I tailored my formula to elevate him in the rankings, meaning similar profiles would rise as well. I'm also going with all tier-one career numbers to weed out inconsistent performers.

In order to expedite this thread, I skipped over smaller leagues. Most of those guys aren't terribly proven anyway. But my two favorites would be Cody Gakpo and Luis Sinisterra, both in the Eredivisie. Both are pretty left-sided, but Sinisterra is my ultimate favorite there.

In a first, I'm gonna feed you the whole list. But not everyone will get a chart. So here we go:
44. Anthony Gordon, Everton
43. Ludovic Blas, Nantes
42. Emmanuel Dennis, Watford
41. Ismaila Sarr, Watford
40. Roland Sallai, SC Freiburg
39. Jarrod Bowen, West Ham

38. Takefusa Kubo, Mallorca
37. Nico Williams, Athletic Club
36. Lucas Ocampos, Sevilla
35. Daniele Verde, Spezia
34. Arnaut Danjuma, Villarreal
33. Joao Pedro, Watford
32. Nicolas Gonzalez, Fiorentina
31. Gelson Martins, Monaco
30. Mikel Oyarzabal, Real Sociedad

29. Woo-Yeong Jeong, SC Freiburg
28. Harvey Barnes, Leicester
27. Daniel Podence, Wolves
26. Ilan Kebbal, Reims
25. Leandro Trossard, Brighton
24. Franck Honorat, Brest
23. Yeremi Pino, Villarreal
22. Alexis Saelemaekers, Milan
21. Sofiane Diop, Monaco

20. Amine Gouiri
Gouiri relies heavily on his right foot and lacks top-end speed, making him most likely a left winger. He plays in a front 2 for Nice, meaning he could also fill in at striker. His output his high but his ball control could leave a bit to be desired.

19. Martin Terrier represents an interesting opportunity for a club like Arsenal. A lower ceiling, but he's experienced and could step in quickly. He's a smart player and one of the best finishers on this list. Predominantly right-rooted, meaning he's mostly a LW with CF ability.

18. Musa Barrow is another right-footer who profiles primarily as a left winger. He's a good creator, among one of the best shot-creators in Italy over his three seasons at Bologna. The main negative with Musa would be his ball control, with the first touch a particular issue.

17. Pedro Neto's first season at Wolves was so good, I'd have risked it all. If he can be shown to be fully healed from his catastrophic knee injury, without adverse effects, he's an ideal do-it-all Saka fill-in. The big hurdle would be negotiating with Wolves.

16. Kamaldeen Sulemana is a major player to watch. He's direct, he's got pace, he can finish. He's also a great shot creator. The hangups with him mostly have to do with experience: he's only 20, and he's only got 1,000 minutes at a tier-one level. He also loses the ball too much

15. Hamed Traore is a well-rounded young winger with a bunch of experience despite his age. His output isn't setting any records but he's getting steadily better at finishing and creating, the latter of which started high. Good dribbler, mostly plays L or central but can play R.

14. Samuel Chukwueze is a terror with the ball at his feet. That makes him well-suited for the counter-attacking style he's playing at Villarreal. The type that can take Bayern out of the Champions League and be dispossessed by Alaves a couple weeks later (that really happened)

13. Goncalo Guedes is a wily vet who can play all over the park, including either wing or striker. He has a flair for the technical, and only scores bangers. Does he have the right physical profile to cope? I'm not sure. He also likely wouldn't be cheap.

12. Hirving Lozano is, in the goals sense, the anti-Guedes. His goals are all close-in but he's remarkably consistent. He's a good ballcarrier who maybe lacks some of the take-on skill it might take to really thrive in the Prem. But he can play either wing and has experience.

11. Rafael Leao is what my mind sees when someone mentions PnP. His 11G10A season was no fluke, backed fully by xG models. He's got all the physical tools to move inside one day, but for now is a LW who'd be very expensive. Needs to gain control of his game to really take off.

10. Aleksandr Golovin was one of my shouts last summer before we signed Odegaard. He's got the type of game that may be unexceptional to some, but my model loves that he never loses you the ball, and contributes chances above-average frequency. Great off-ball energy.

9. Moussa Diaby might be the closest thing this market can offer to Raphinha, numbers notwithstanding. He's a true two-sided winger who's direct with the ball at his feet, and can create via pass or dribble. I do worry that his control is a bit lackluster, and he's small.

8. Josip Brekalo is another who doesn't have eye-popping output, but always finds a way up these lists. The Wolfsburg-owned winger can play either side, but is more comfortable on the left. A good finisher who doesn't really have a major weakness statistically, but not explosive.

7. Michael Olise is exciting for so many reasons. He's also 20 and has 1,000 minutes at the top level under his belt. These numbers catch the eye but they are also a very small sample, so it will be a lot of fun to see what Olise can produce in his second go-round.

6. Cengiz Under is a good finisher and creator who just had his best season for Marseilles on the right wing. Unfortunately, he just locked into a permanent move there (he was on loan from Roma).

5. Houssem Aouar is often classified as a CM, but I'll die on my hill that he should play winger. Why? His strengths lie in ball control, carrying and creation, not defence. He's the type who could start day one for an Arsenal as a LW, shifting to 8 if needed. Likely affordable.

4. Domenico Berardi would be a real experience play. He's a right-winger and striker whose entire career has been in Italy. as is always the case, getting him to leave could be difficult. But he's got good ball control and creation, maybe not the best 1-v-1 for PL play.

3. Someone's going to have to explain to me what Marco Asensio has done to turn so many against him, because this formula loves him. He's turnover-resistant, a good passer and above-average scoring who can play either wing but likely gets more time at RW. Would RM sell for cheap?

2. Chris Nkunku. He's probably not available this summer but he'll have an RC next yr. Bundesliga tax? Yeah, I think there's some of that inflation here. But he's a very smart player, great energy, great teammate. Young Lacazette vibes to me (the good parts). RW/AM/SS.

1. Callum Hudson-Odoi. Let the banter begin! But if Chelsea find themselves saturated on the wings, I think this could be a lesser version of last summer's Tammy saga. He's been very bright when actually allowed to play, producing lots of chances. Not enough of a scorer, perhaps?

Let the banter begin! I didn't set out to put CHO on top, but the numbers love him. Maybe in a consistent starting role he goes bang, or maybe the shorter stints are keeping him from being exposed. Either way, what do you think? Feel free to weigh in with questions, comments!

And as always, I do this for free, and I'd love to keep it that way. If you appreciated the work, feel free to buy me a beer so I can forget this whole Raphinha thing ever happened. Thanks for reading!

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