The Conservatives are set to reprise their 2015 election message to thwart the Lib Dems march in the south, as Boris Johnson told me when we talked for an hour earlier this spring
The Tiverton and Honiton by-election result last week should really worry Conservative party HQ. Although Labour's gain in Wakefield was also important, there's 20 odd seats akin to the Yorkshire town. But 230 are very similar to what they lost in Devon.
"Do you want a sensible one nation Conservative party? This is a One Nation government that has done some fantastic things already and we’ll do a lot more. Or do you want Labour propped up by the SNP? We’re going back to that choice"
Michael Brooks, Tory pollster behind '19 campaign:
"Imagine another three years of all your politicians on your telly every night arguing about a referendum, about whether or not the country should stay together? Doesn’t sound very attractive, does it?"
Much as in 2019, Michael Brooks told me the Tories will play on voters’ exasperation - noting the electorate has been through two referendums, two general elections, two years of Brexit wrangling and Covid.
The path to renewing "coalition of chaos" message was made smoother by Nicola Sturgeon this week. By stating the next UK general election in her nation will be a de facto referendum on indyref2, the Tories benefit from her increasingly hardline position.
For more on the next election - Labour's fears of "long Corbyn", Lib Dem plans to become fiscal conservatives, the Tories hopes of talking up indyref2, exclusive interviews with the key characters - check out the paperback edition of #brokenheartlands 👇
For the new edition of #brokenheartlands, I sat down with Boris Johnson earlier this spring for an hour discussion about the red wall, blue wall, policy challenger and how he hopes to win the next election:
Here’s some highlights of what the prime minister had to say 🧵
#1: How does he define levelling up? No one is quite sure what it is.
"It's a frustration that the Treasury spent so long in the postwar decades, particularly after the great 1980s boom in the City, thinking that the cash cow for the UK was just in London and the south east.”
#2: Johnson said the "the single most important thing in levelling up was high skilled/high wage jobs.
“I believe in equality of opportunity. I really do think there are places around this country which could achieve so much more and which are starting to achieve so much more.”
The collapse of the red wall marked the first chapter of the UK's political realignment after Brexit. Is a 'blue wall' in prosperous south about to be the second?
I've been to Esher and Walton, a seat that should be as Tory as they come. It is palpably prosperous, with nine train stations to London, large homes, good schools, healthy high streets. It was solidly blue throughout its existence - until 2016 and Brexit
As part of my blue wall travels, I spent an hour with Boris Johnson in his Downing Street study. He said his Tory party remains "broad-minded” and "bears down on taxation, drives business investment and offers principled moral leadership in the world"
Finding a third ministerial ethics advisor for Johnson will be a challenge for even London’s most inventive recruitment agency. Some candidates will put off by the PM’s style, but a more fundamental problem is the actual role itself. It’s nonsensical.
The Conservative party's most ardent Brexiter caucus has been highly influential in shaping the Northern Ireland protocol legislation. Some think they are still the PM's praetorian guard
The ERG's "star chamber" of lawyers - Sir Bill Cash, Martin Howe and Barney Reynolds - are due to meet today to decide whether to support the Northern Ireland protocol bill. A public declaration is expected before its 2nd reading later this month.
Despite some Johnson allies urging the PM to undertake a rapid reshuffle to stamp his authority on the Tory party, those with acknowledge of his thinking say think he’s actually in a “unifying mood” with ministers.
Team Johnson insist "a win is a win" and will broadly continue as before
Some supporters say there are plans for an imminent “punishment reshuffle” in the junior ranks of the government for those seen as showing insufficient loyalty to the PM.