🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🌹Remember "coalition of chaos"? It's back

The Conservatives are set to reprise their 2015 election message to thwart the Lib Dems march in the south, as Boris Johnson told me when we talked for an hour earlier this spring

Latest @FinancialTimes column ft.com/content/31a6ab…
The Tiverton and Honiton by-election result last week should really worry Conservative party HQ. Although Labour's gain in Wakefield was also important, there's 20 odd seats akin to the Yorkshire town. But 230 are very similar to what they lost in Devon.

ft.com/content/31a6ab…
Come the next election, the Tories will argue Labour must gain 121 seats to have a Commons majority of just one.

Therefore the only plausible route to power is a coalition with the Lib Dems, but the two parties may still struggle for a majority.

ft.com/content/31a6ab…
Boris Johnson says:

"Do you want a sensible one nation Conservative party? This is a One Nation government that has done some fantastic things already and we’ll do a lot more. Or do you want Labour propped up by the SNP? We’re going back to that choice"

ft.com/content/31a6ab…
Michael Brooks, Tory pollster behind '19 campaign:

"Imagine another three years of all your politicians on your telly every night arguing about a referendum, about whether or not the country should stay together? Doesn’t sound very attractive, does it?"

ft.com/content/31a6ab…
Much as in 2019, Michael Brooks told me the Tories will play on voters’ exasperation - noting the electorate has been through two referendums, two general elections, two years of Brexit wrangling and Covid.

"They’re just sick of the whole lot of it”

ft.com/content/31a6ab…
The path to renewing "coalition of chaos" message was made smoother by Nicola Sturgeon this week. By stating the next UK general election in her nation will be a de facto referendum on indyref2, the Tories benefit from her increasingly hardline position.

ft.com/content/31a6ab…
Labour isn't convinced "coalition of chaos" redux will work given Johnson's governing style and seven years of turbulence.

One Keir Starmer ally describes it as “total crap” that “won’t land”, but at least two shadow cabinet members are highly agitated.

ft.com/content/31a6ab…
For more on the next election - Labour's fears of "long Corbyn", Lib Dem plans to become fiscal conservatives, the Tories hopes of talking up indyref2, exclusive interviews with the key characters - check out the paperback edition of #brokenheartlands 👇

amazon.co.uk/Broken-Heartla…

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More from @SebastianEPayne

Jul 1
For the new edition of #brokenheartlands, I sat down with Boris Johnson earlier this spring for an hour discussion about the red wall, blue wall, policy challenger and how he hopes to win the next election:

Here’s some highlights of what the prime minister had to say 🧵 Image
#1: How does he define levelling up? No one is quite sure what it is.

"It's a frustration that the Treasury spent so long in the postwar decades, particularly after the great 1980s boom in the City, thinking that the cash cow for the UK was just in London and the south east.”
#2: Johnson said the "the single most important thing in levelling up was high skilled/high wage jobs.

“I believe in equality of opportunity. I really do think there are places around this country which could achieve so much more and which are starting to achieve so much more.”
Read 23 tweets
Jun 17
🔸🔨🔹 Have the Tories lost suburban England?

The collapse of the red wall marked the first chapter of the UK's political realignment after Brexit. Is a 'blue wall' in prosperous south about to be the second?

My @ftweekend essay from Esher and Walton ft.com/content/b51ae7…
I've been to Esher and Walton, a seat that should be as Tory as they come. It is palpably prosperous, with nine train stations to London, large homes, good schools, healthy high streets. It was solidly blue throughout its existence - until 2016 and Brexit

ft.com/content/b51ae7…
As part of my blue wall travels, I spent an hour with Boris Johnson in his Downing Street study. He said his Tory party remains "broad-minded” and "bears down on taxation, drives business investment and offers principled moral leadership in the world"

ft.com/content/b51ae7…
Read 10 tweets
Jun 16
👨‍💼 The ‘good chap’ theory of government never really existed, the chaps were never always good

Lord Geidt’s resignation is a moment to decide whether or not to formalise the mess ministerial ethics, but it comes with hazards

Latest @FinancialTimes column ft.com/content/cd51a1…
Christopher Geidt is the ultimate chap: public school, Cambridge, Sandhurst, a top advisor to the Queen for a decade.

He was an obvious choice for Boris Johnson’s ministerial ethics advisor but could an establishment man ever tame an agent of chaos?

ft.com/content/cd51a1…
Finding a third ministerial ethics advisor for Johnson will be a challenge for even London’s most inventive recruitment agency. Some candidates will put off by the PM’s style, but a more fundamental problem is the actual role itself. It’s nonsensical.

ft.com/content/cd51a1…
Read 5 tweets
Jun 14
💥 The European Research Group is back

The Conservative party's most ardent Brexiter caucus has been highly influential in shaping the Northern Ireland protocol legislation. Some think they are still the PM's praetorian guard

Analysis with @GeorgeWParker ft.com/content/f04ea9…
The ERG's "star chamber" of lawyers - Sir Bill Cash, Martin Howe and Barney Reynolds - are due to meet today to decide whether to support the Northern Ireland protocol bill. A public declaration is expected before its 2nd reading later this month.

ft.com/content/f04ea9…
Whereas some Tories are concerned about whether the bill will break international law, senior ERG MPs are concerned whether it goes far enough.

“This is the last part of Brexit and we have to make sure we have fully taken back control.”

ft.com/content/f04ea9…
Read 8 tweets
Jun 7
NEW: Boris Johnson warns ministers to raise their game or face the sack. Colleagues say he’s not minded towards an immediate reshuffle.

“Boris knows people have to perform and some are not. He will assess performance in the cold hard light of day.”

ft.com/content/6c650e…
After the confidence vote, allies say the PM is keenly focused on delivery:

“Ministers need to ensure their departments are acting more swiftly and effectively.”

“Any reshuffle will be some time away and performance will be watched in the meantime.”

ft.com/content/6c650e…
Despite some Johnson allies urging the PM to undertake a rapid reshuffle to stamp his authority on the Tory party, those with acknowledge of his thinking say think he’s actually in a “unifying mood” with ministers.

ft.com/content/6c650e…
Read 4 tweets
Jun 7
❓❓❓ So, what happens now for Boris Johnson?

- How will No10 fight back?
- Will the rebels fight back?
- What will the Cabinet do?
- Will Tory grandees act?
- How can Johnson govern?

@FinancialTimes analysis has all of your answers ft.com/content/f5791f…
@FinancialTimes 1. How will PM and his team fight back?

Johnson's allies not interested in compromise or reaching out:

"Boris has indulged these people for far too long. He needs to do stamp his authority and rout those who "have caused endless headaches."

ft.com/content/f5791f…
Team Johnson insist "a win is a win" and will broadly continue as before

Some supporters say there are plans for an imminent “punishment reshuffle” in the junior ranks of the government for those seen as showing insufficient loyalty to the PM.

ft.com/content/f5791f…
Read 11 tweets

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