🧵 How did Britain become a low trust society?

After the war, Lee Kuan Yew came to London. He was amazed to watch newspapers being sold with no attendant, customers took their paper and paid the exact amount. This was the kind of society he went back to Singapore to build. And this is where British society has ended up: shoplifting in epidemic proportions. Billions are being lost and livelihoods ruined because the police are incapable or unwilling to do much about it. And too many parts of the country have just accepted a low quality of life.

New @ukonward report: Reality Check - what voters really think about immigration by @jim_blagden

With migration becoming a top public priority again, we've worked with @StackStrat to examine the debate on control vs. reduction of numbers.

Highlights 🧵 ukonward.com/reports/realit… #1: Immigration is rising up the political agenda, echoing the increase in net migration. After Brexit, levels did fall but they have been gradually increasing with the introduction of the points-based system.

It's now reached a salience not seen since 2017

🔃 Rishi Sunak is gradually earning the Conservatives a right to be heard again on the economy. But the Prime Minister must be big and bold in his September reset with a new narrative on security and opportunity.

Latest @theipaper column inews.co.uk/opinion/tories… As Sunak said, the Five Pledges are foundational to what comes next.

Security is key - national, economic or environmental. When I travelled to write Broken Heartlands, the constant message I heard was people feeling abandoned by the political system.

inews.co.uk/opinion/tories…

🧵 This was a Budget to bring back trust - reassuring and optimistic, providing support now and fostering growth in the future.

It balanced fiscal security and creating better conditions for prosperity. A solid start, but there's still an electoral and delivery mountain to climb Jeremy Hunt has made a necessary bold move on free childcare to the age of three - I'm delighted he's heeded the calls of @Siobhan_Baillie and @ukonward to provide assistance for children but also parents eager to get back to work. The extra cash is just what the sector needs.

🔹Thrilled to be launching @ukonward's Future of Conservatism Project with a keynote speech today by @michaelgove.

Those who have written off the centre right are wrong. We're starting the next chapter of conservative modernisation with a mission to build a national community. Over the next year, we'll be producing three substantial research papers making the intellectual case for a new conservatism, where the economic and social are tightly interwoven.

I'm delighted to welcome @gavinantonyrice and @NJ_Timothy to Team Onward to lead the research.

⬆️Is the phrase "levelling up" finished?

@Geri_E_L_Scott reports some Conservative MPs in marginals have been discouraged from using it, focusing instead on "enhancing communities" or the godawful phrase of "gauging up".

But I doubt we've heard the last of it. Some thoughts... The phrase 'levelling up' originated in 2019 when Boris Johnson was seeking an agenda to tackle regional inequality and the reasons behind the Brexit vote. It was found in both the party's manifesto and his speech outside Downing Street after the election.

It's been a fantastic first week at @ukonward - here's what we've been up to:

- On Tuesday: we were delighted to welcome Michael Lind for an in conversation with @NJ_Timothy about the future of conservatism both sides of the Atlantic.

What they discussed

https://twitter.com/Valen10Francois/status/1612882834003312640

- On Wednesday, Onward welcomed @GeorgeFreemanMP for an important, substantive speech on what the UK's science and research policy might look like after Horizon Europe and its importance for levelling up.

Watch back George's speech and Q&A

🔷 Rishi Sunak has been prime minister for a month, but he’s already struggling to stamp his authority on the parliamentary party. Here are the four new Tory tribes causing the PM headaches.

Latest @FinancialTimes analysis ft.com/content/e2cb19… Tribe #1: The ‘heartland defenders’ of centrist Tory MPs.

These should be Sunak's natural supporters, yet they are rallying against his plans on housebuilding and green energy (despite both being 2019 manifesto commitments). Embodied by Damian Green.

ft.com/content/e2cb19…

👥 What precisely is Rishi Sunak for?

The PM can’t exist on managerialism alone, despite the economic crisis. Instead he should focus on the party’s 2019 blueprint for fixing Britain.

In short: Johnsonism without Johnson

Latest @FinancialTimes column ft.com/content/6c9ff4… The 2019 manifesto was notable for its “Get Brexit Done” slogan, but had far more depth and ambition than is often acknowledged. With its bold plans for devolution, expansion of the railways and boost for science, Sunak should focus on its core proposals.

ft.com/content/6c9ff4…

Conservative MPs were talking this week about a “devil’s bargain” between Rishi Sunak and Suella Braverman.

Will the deal that put Sunak to No10 hold, or backfire and cause collateral damage to his nascent premiership?

@FinancialTimes weekend analysis ft.com/content/afc7a4… One Tory insider said Sunak and Braverman spoke half a dozen times on October 23, the day she endorsed him.

One Home Office insider: “A deal done was obviously done: ‘back me and I’ll install you back as Home Secretary”.

Sunak’s allies deny any deals.

ft.com/content/afc7a4…

👥 Who’s who in Team Sunak?

With just a few days to assemble a Number 10 team, the new prime minister has turned to his close aides from his time as chancellor to replace Liz Truss' Downing Street operation.

"It's almost a whole Treasury takeover"

ft.com/content/86e1df… Key faces in Team Sunak:

- @OliverDowden is expected to return to cabinet as Sunak chief operating officer after chairing both of his leadership campaigns. One ally says he'll be "Rishi’s right-hand man throughout and will help him run the government"

ft.com/content/86e1df…

❓ What will Boris Johnson do now?

Allies of the former PM say he's going to be spending more time in Washington DC, shoring up support for the war in Ukraine - especially with the prospect of Republicans limiting support to Kyiv after the mid terms.

ft.com/content/9fb90f… One friend: "There is no formal role yet but Boris is very worried about the situation in Ukraine. He believes that the US and US defence spending is the best force for military success in the war and wants to make sure support does not slip away"

ft.com/content/9fb90f…

NEW: Jeremy Hunt announces he will "reverse almost all the tax measures announced in the growth plan." Well that's it for Trussonomics (and the platform Liz Truss stood on to be prime minister) As well as curtailing the energy package, the most measure Hunt announced was scrapping 1p income tax cut. Rishi Sunak was due to introduce it in 2024, Kwasi Kwarteng brought it forward to 2023. Fact it's not happening "indefinitely" shows just how bad the economic's situation is

“The question is when — not if — she goes"

Even ministers in Liz Truss' government think she will be the shortest ever PM. But no one knows how and when she will go, never mind who will replace.

@FinancialTimes analysis on a very chaotic messy mood ft.com/content/11c163… Another senior minister reckons Truss will go:

"It’s over, but I’m not sure when. Perhaps this week, perhaps next. She could also survive a little longer in a caretaker role — effectively Jeremy Hunt carries on as CEO."

ft.com/content/11c163…

💥 Liz Truss fights for survival:

- Senior City figures call on the PM to stand down
- Allies of PM liken "plotters" to anti-Brexit campaigns and say they're forcing Tories towards an election
- 3 MPs call for her to go

Tomorrow's @FinancialTimes splash ft.com/content/38b30b… Tory peer Stuart Rose, chair of Asda and former head of M&S, calls on Truss to resign:"She is a busted flush"

"As prime minister, you have to have the confidence of business, investors, the electorate and colleagues in the party. She has none of these"

ft.com/content/38b30b…

❓ Can Liz Truss survive ❓

Tory MPs are in despair after the PM’s efforts to shore up her position after a disastrous 24 hours.

Wheels are starting to move on how the 1922 committee could oust her after just 38 days in No10.

@FinancialTimes analysis on.ft.com/3EIvxBv Senior Tories welcome Truss’ decision to fire Kwarteng and replace him with Hunt, but don’t think it goes far enough:

“Jeremy is a sensible choice, but he has no economic experience. I’m not sure he’s well equipped at all to deal with this crisis.”

ft.com/content/40a768…

💥 Inside No10: Liz Truss prepares for a U-turn but fears what comes next.

"It would mean she is politically finished as a project. What would be the point of a Truss government if it isn’t doing radical economic reform?”

Latest @FinancialTimes analysis ft.com/content/062bb6… Conservative MPs are already openly discussing removing Truss.

Although 1922 rules say she can't be challenged for a year, a widespread view is if 100 no confidence letters went to Graham Brady "he would have no choice but to do something about it"

ft.com/content/062bb6…

Liz Truss has addressed the 1922 committee of Tory MPs this evening. The PM told MPs they should focus on the energy price guarantee and "highlight the devastation that would have been caused to small business had we not acted" Truss also told Tory MPs that Labour "has no plan beyond the next 6 months" and no plan to help businesses.

💥 Inside Liz Truss' dramatic 45p tax U-turn

PM has told colleagues "it’s not the fight I wanted to have" and didn't want it to become "the defining issue of my premiership"

Analysis with @GeorgeWParker @PickardJE
ft.com/content/5897a5… Kwasi Kwarteng insisted he had not offered to resign over. “Why would he?” said one ally. Downing Street insiders said Truss had been advised by some officials last week she would have to “lose the chancellor”, but she told aides she “never” considered it

ft.com/content/5897a5…

🌹 A Labour government led by Keir Starmer is now plausible, but certainly not a given.

The party's conference in Liverpool showed that Labour believes it can win again, but it still has more to do on story telling.

Latest @FinancialTimes column ft.com/content/b17a76… The standout moment of this year's Labour conference was not Starmer's keynote, as solid as it was. It was the opening montage, when the party paid tribute to Queen Elizabeth II and belted out “God Save The King" - unimaginable during the Corbyn years.

ft.com/content/b17a76…

😬 Conservative MPs are deeply divided on Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng's economic strategy

It's libertarians who are fully on board vs moderates who are nervous about the competence of the Truss regime.

Analysis with @GeorgeWParker @PickardJE
ft.com/content/2a79c9… Supporters of the Truss-Kwarteng plan say there was no alternative than to stimulate growth with less than two years to a general election.

"It was either this or continue with the status quo and almost certain election defeat"

ft.com/content/2a79c9…