If Dems do manage to end the #filibuster, and then NOTHING is passed afterwards, will you vote for Dems in the midterms?
And if you hesitated for even a second before saying yes, then that's exactly why Dems won't end the filibuster.
Because if Dems end the filibuster, then their voters need to come out no matter what is blocked by senate procedure, stripped by the parliamentarian, etc.
What do I mean "if nothing is passed?"
Because there are a LOT of ways to prevent legislation from passing that aren't the filibuster.
The filibuster is the easiest to defeat, just need 60 votes.
(not an exhaustive list)
1. No quorum. Being the senate is 50/50, anytime a Dem is out sick, the GOP can simply leave, nothing gets done.
(see the month Lujan was ill. Dems couldn't do anything because the GOP left Washington.)
a Dem gets COVID? 10 days of no votes, no bills, no appointments.
No state visits, no face time w/ the media, Every Dem would have to stay in DC.
2. Motions to adjourn
Every GOP could offer their own individual motion to adjourn, and all it takes is 20 votes to require the bill to be read on the floor.
So every day simply would be spent reading the same bill 50 times and voting it down on party lines.
3. Procedural fuckery
Senate Minority leader needs only 20 votes to grind the senate to a halt simply by demanding everything from bills to amendments to appointments to motions be read in full on the floor.
These 3 things alone can make my question a reality. And I'm not a constitutional lawyer or a politician, so I'm certain there are some I'm missing.
(I'll link the supporting text when I'm not on my phone).
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By saying "abortion isn't enumerated in the Constitution", Alito is making the 10th amendment argument, sidestepping the "when does life begin?" issue altogether.
But because of that, since codifying abortion into law would not change its lack of enumeration...
it would be challenged by any state with a ban (TX), quickly sail through the district court (stacked w/ Trump appointed Rs), enjoined by the circuit court (stacked w/Trump appointed Rs) and end up where? Right back in Alito's lap because he oversees the 5th circuit.
The reason abortion was never in direct danger by SCOTUS was because up until 2017, the Republicans never controlled a district/circuit/SCOTUS combo where they also had the state legislature/governor
So any time they'd try this insanity, it'd get squashed before SCOTUS.
In light of what's transpired today, I think I should share a little story about why I and many other Dems who were screaming about the importance of the judiciary are angry today.
And no, it's not the SCOTUS. It's the 5th Circuit Court of Appeals (5th CCA)
First some facts:
In 2016, because of the Reid/McConnell agreement, it only took a simple majority to fill judiciary appointments (not SCOTUS)
And in 2016, the 5th CCA had 6! vacancies.
Also: Any contested bill from TX/MS/LA gets adjudicated in the 5th CCA.
It's a big deal
Also, the 5th CCA has been the deciding court for:
- Loosening EPA regs
- Mandating the Stay in Mexico Policy
- Forcing the Biden Admin to sell oil licenses
- SB8
- and now the 15 week abortion ruling
Omicron is more transmittable than the other variants, but seems to cause less severe symptoms. So if we let a highly contagious/low lethality virus become the predominant strain, that effectively works as a vaccine, right?
1 big problem w/ that theory:
SARS-COV2 is zooonotic, meaning animals can carry and mutate the virus. This means that we may think we're passing around cute and fluffy COVID, give it to the animal population, who turn it to killer COVID, and give it back.