GeoConfirmed Profile picture
Jun 30 13 tweets 6 min read
GeoConfirmed - Thread about the shelling of Snake Island.

I don't think we need to GeoLocate Snake Island anymore, but in case you have doubts, its around 45.254787, 30.203294.

So the claim is that Ukrainian 2S22 Bohdana 155 howitzers were used to shell Snake Island.

1/
This howitzer can fire all standard NATO 155mm ammunition. It has a minimum range of 780m and can fire high-explosive incendiary/armour-piercing (HEIAP) ammunition to a range of up to 42km, and rocket-assisted projectile (RAP) to a range of 50km.

army-technology.com/projects/2s22-…

2/
So the range is 42km and 50km. When we project this on Snake Island this is what we get.

3/
But in that area you have something very important: The Romanian border, a NATO country.

So when we cut of the Romanian part of this cone, and we follow the coastline, we get something like this.

4/
This is an area full of swamps and rivers, and very hard to place heavy artillery. You need a steady ground to fire (and adjust fire). So that limits the options.

But there was another picture:



5/
And yes, we GeoLocated it:

Thx to @AaronB2022 for the initial clue.
And our @GeoConfirmed members @a_vikulin, @kargolow, @OSINT_Amateur searched and found the exact location:

45.301060, 29.752150

6/
So on the map would it be this location:

6,5km from the border of a NATO country.

7/
And how did they get to that location?

Could be by boat, could be by land.

A bridge was build right before 07 MAR between two Island next to the "GeoLocated" Island.

There is also a house with what seems a possible dock near that Island.

8/
On 25 FEB the Island was overrun, so the building of this -what seems to be- a bridge started soon after the capture of Snake Island. It seems likely that Ukraine was planning all along to shell Snake Island from the coastline.

9/
Conclusion:

It is highly likely that Ukraine indeed used 2S22 Bohdana 155 howitzers to shell Snake Island.

Not only did we geolocate a firing location, Snake Island is also within range for the HEIAP ammunition.

10/
It's also possible that the fact that they fired from an area this close to a NATO country played an important role in the assessment from Russia to not engage it and because of that, they had to withdraw from Snake Island.

11/
Why is Snake Island so important and the loss of it a huge blow for Russia? (Ref. Zoka's reaction)

Because it's a "strategically and tactically important rock" to say it with the words of @CovertShores



12/
Whoever controls the Island, controls all the sea around it.

With the connection Snake Island - Sevastopol you control the access the that part of the Black Sea.

13/

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Video 1:

1/
Other footage, video 2:

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