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Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
@PhillipsPOBrien
Jul 1, 2022 • 3 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Had this article published in @TheAtlantic today. It’s about asking questions about how we judge what is a ‘great’ power and what’s a smaller one. theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
Was struck by the constant pre-invasion claims by Kissinger, Mearsheimer, Walt and Charap, all of whom would claim to be ‘realists’ that Russia was a great power and therefore its demands needed to be met. However they never really bothered to reflect on what made a great power…
Beyond discussing military power. Clearly Russia is not a great power, but a deeply flawed one, and we need to provide a more nuanced understanding of power than the one these realists supplied. theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
May 5
The @CSIS Interpret China resource has assembled a number of very interesting sources on how the Chinese state is thinking about and reacting to the Russo-Ukraine War. It is a really helpful one-stop shop that anyone interested in the subject should examine.interpret.csis.org
One report. by a leading Chinese scholar, talks about how Russia is trying to recalibrate its global relationships, and how the Chinese-Russian alliance, while strong, is no longer the "limitless" partnerships that was proclaimed before the invasion. interpret.csis.org/translations/t…
Another really interesting Chinese analysis looks at 2024, and argues that after the US election, there might be a push for a peace deal. Also tries to think about the future development of warfare, and how China can adjust to a battlefield full of masses of cheap UAVs interpret.csis.org/translations/a…
Read 5 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
May 4
And the battle lines have (at least temporarily) stabilized after all the doom and gloom of the last few weeks. No great Russian breakthroughs and exploitations, some small, incremental advances at very high cost. With Ukraine getting more ammunition, Russian losses might even rise.
UK Intelligence estimates 465000 Russian casualties so far--an staggering figure. The Russians are generating soldiers, but losing them at an astounding clip. The disregard of the Russian leadership for their own people is one reason Ukraine must win.
Actually, UK intelligence estimates OVER 465,000 Russian casualties--fighting just Ukraine. This is one of the most futile military campaigns in modern history.
Read 5 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Apr 16
Hi All, just sent out this piece on the brutally simple lesson that we have seen in the last few days, one that Europe must learn from and prepare for immediately if the continent is not to be the plaything of nuclear powers. Image
Non-nuclear Ukraine has been made to suffer at the hands of a nuclear power. Let’s hope it doesn’t happen to the continent as a whole.
People talking about relying on the U.K. and France’s nuclear forces don’t get it. That will be an inevitable short term reality, but it’s not a long term plan. Both are national and both governments could be unreliable in the future. What happens if the National Front takes power in France? Nigel Farage and Dominic Cummings have been likewise Russian sympathisers in the U.K.
Read 6 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Mar 8
The Polish government now saying that they can conceive of NATO forces in Ukraine. War is a dynamic process and can lead to dramatic changes--its amazing that so many people cannot see that such a development is becoming more and more possible.
Also important to see @sikorskiradek challenge Russian reflexive control. This is about European states saying to Russia that we dont accept the security paradigm you are trying to impose. Make Russia worry more. This is exactly what I said 4 days ago.
In the end, breaking the chains that Russia has wrapped around the security discussion of this war might be the key step to helping Ukraine win it.
Read 5 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Feb 29
Just sent out an update on the chance of European intervention for Ukraine, motivated by the deliberate statements of @EmmanuelMacron People who discount European intervention for Ukraine do not understand war. The longer they go on, the bloodier they become... Image
the more state's contemplate actions that previously they never thought possible. As Russia slaughters hundreds of thousands and the war drags on, it is increasing the chances of intervention. Only a fool would deny that--and Macron is no fool Image
An example of what is being contemplated. The Baltics, for one, have to take any abandonment of Ukraine by the USA as a huge threat to themselves.
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Feb 11
Trump’s admission yesterday that he would be happy to encourage Putin to attack Europe should and all hopes that somehow the Republican Party is salvageable. As such I wrote a piece that the Dems should take 2 bold steps now to reach out to sane Repubs. substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_…
Image
Like FDR in 1940, in the Face of isolationists who were sympathetic to Hitler, the Dems should name two internationalist Republicans to the Cabinet. Second, they need to consider a unity ticket in 2024. Think Michelle Obama and Adam Kinzinger.
In case you missed it, here is an article about what Trump said. cnn.com/2024/02/10/pol…
Read 7 tweets

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