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Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
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Jul 1 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Notably, R.E. Lee's strategy did not substantially change from 1862 to 1864 despite the overall deteriorating military situation for the Confederacy.

He succeeded in invading the North in 1862 & 1863 & planned to do the same in 1864 but US Grant beat him to it.

#Gettysburg
"For God's sake, send up Hancock. Everything at odds. Reynolds is killed, and we need a controlling spirit."

Message from General Buford to General Meade, morning of 1st Day, Gettysburg. Image
"It was imperative to strike before we were struck by this overwhelming force in a hand-to-hand fight, which we could not probably have withstood or survived. At that crisis, I ordered the bayonet. The word was enough."

Apropos nothing: throughout 1862 & 1863 there were numerous meetings of public intellectuals et. al in Great Britain arguing that the North could not defeat the South and that the only way to end the bloody civil war was through a negotiated settlement.

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Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Jul 4
A failed 🇺🇦counter-offensive to retake parts of Kherson province could have much more severe long-term strategic consequences for Ukraine than losing additional territory in the Donbas.

Indeed, the battle over Kherson city could be Ukraine's defining "Saratoga moment."
Continued Western support will be pivotal for shifting the medium to long-term military balance in Ukraine's favor. A failed/long drawn out 🇺🇦 offensive to retake Kherson city, however, would play into the hands of those in the West arguing that military support is futile....
...and that additional military support will only unnecessarily prolong the war. Consequently, calls for a ceasefire/"negotiated settlement" in some Western countries, particularly in Germany, would increase & perhaps undermine efforts to better coordinate, streamline support.
Read 7 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Jul 2
"In helping to move part of German public opinion towards the proposition that Ukraine cannot win the war, and in thereby helping to delay the delivery of the necessary weapons, Habermas has made Ukraine's defeat more likely," argues @TimothyDSnyder

faz.net/aktuell/politi…
"Habermas bases his entire argument on the historical claim that the Cold War demonstrated that no nuclear power could lose a war. This is incorrect. Both the Soviet Union and the United States lost major wars during the Cold War..."
"We know that a humiliating defeat for Russia will not lead to nuclear war. Russia was defeated and indeed humiliated in the Battle of Kyiv, but did not use nuclear weapons and did not escalate."
Read 4 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Jun 15
Die militärische Stärke einer Streitkraft ist nicht absolut sondern muss immer relativ zum allgemeinen Zustand der gegnerischen Streitkraft gemessen werden.

Hier hat sich das relative Kräfteverhältnis im Osten der 🇺🇦 nun zugunsten 🇷🇺s verschoben.

Kurzer 🧵👇
1/x
1. Der Kampf im Donbas wird von der Artillerie entschieden. Hier hat 🇷🇺 klare Vorteile was Feuerkraft/Nachschub betrifft.

2. 🇷🇺 Truppen kämpfen nun großteils laut ihrer Einsatzdoktrin & führen einen rudimentären Kampf der verbundenen Waffen durch. Das reduziert 🇷🇺Verluste.
2/x
3. Auch die 🇷🇺 Luftwaffe kann effektiver in Gefechten eingreifen, da die 🇺🇦 Flugabwehr im Osten hauptsächlich aus MANPADs besteht & 🇷🇺Flugabwehrsysteme den Einsatz der 🇺🇦 Luftwaffe einschränken.

4. 🇷🇺 Truppen setzen auch breiter/gekonnter elektronische Kampfmittel ein.
3/x
Read 17 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Jun 13
This could roughly translate into ~11-12 mechanized/tank brigades + a # of independent artillery/rocket artillery brigades.

🇺🇦 had a total of 13 active mech./tank brigades pre-February 24.

In other words, 🇺🇦 asks for help to regenerate almost its entire ground maneuver force.
54 battalions in total including ~10 +/- tank & ~44 +/- mechanized infantry battalions. All rough calculations and all depends on exact force structure of course. Note: the request does not include short/medium range air defense systems which are also sorely needed.
FYI:

Ukraine had 858 main battle tanks (MBTs) pre-February 24 (per @IISS_org MilBal+ database).

Ukraine lost 194 MBTs to date (per @oryxspioenkop database)

Poland & Czech Republic sent ~270 MBTs enough to generate 2 strengthened tank brigades.
Read 8 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Jun 13
Another great piece of reporting by @MacWBishop 👇

‘They’re Wiping Us From Earth’: Evading Russian Artillery With a Ukrainian Military Unit rollingstone.com/culture/cultur… via @RollingStone
On Russian tactics in the ongoing fight in eastern 🇺🇦: “Russian scouts move forward to probe Ukrainian positions, then call in large-scale artillery strikes when they make contact. The artillery is followed by masses of armor supported by infantry.”
“One of the biggest problems is the drones,” says “Ostap,” the nom de guerre of the 🇺🇦scout. “I hear Orlans [a type of Russian reconnaissance drone] all the time. But I almost never see them. They’re too small and too high. It’s next to impossible to shoot them down.”
Read 8 tweets
Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Jun 12
🇨🇳 defense minister Wei responds to 🇺🇸defense secretary Lloyd Austin’s speech yesterday. China ‘firmly rejects US smearing accusations,’ and accuses the US Indo-Pacific strategy of being ‘strategy to hijack countries in our region and target one country [China].’ #SLD22
🇨🇳 defense minister appears to suggest that root cause of Russia‘s war of aggression in Ukraine is the United States. #SLD22
🇨🇳defense minister reiterates China’s nuclear “no first use” policy (NFU). #SLD22
Read 5 tweets

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