Thread by @georgewbarros

July 2, 2022 map update.

Russian forces captured Lysychansk, the last large Ukrainian settlement in Luhansk Oblast.

Only about 55 square km of Luhansk remains uncontested, and Russian forces will likely occupy Luhansk in a few days.

More in this thread for @TheStudyofWar. 🧵

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1543350912919404544

1. We expanded Russian advances to Lysychansk; Russian forces likely captured Lysychansk on July 2. It’s unclear whether Russian forces have fully cleared and secured Lysychansk of July 2. Geolocated videos posted on July 2 show Russian forces casually walking around multiple...

locations in downtown Lysychansk. The relaxed behavior of these Russian troops indicates that there is likely no remaining organized Ukrainian defense in Lysychansk. Premier Russian news outlet RIA Novosti claimed that Russian forces captured Lysychansk on July 2...

The Ukrainian General Staff 1800 report of July 2 did not mention Ukrainian defensive activity in Lysychansk as such reports previously had. Ukrainian Minister of Internal Affairs Vadym Denysenko gave an interview on July 2 in which he said, “Unfortunately, as of now...

the probability of [Russian Forces] capturing Luhansk Oblast is very high,” indicating that Ukrainian forces likely lost Lysychansk. It's unclear if Russian forces encircled any Ukrainian troops in the city. Some Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces vacated the city...

whereas Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov claimed that Russian forces trapped an unspecified number of Ukrainians troops in the city. Ukrainian forces likely successfully withdrew from Lysychansk as they did from Zolote and Hirske around June 24. Russian forces likely captured...

Shepilove and Novodruzhesk as they claimed, though ISW has no secondary evidence to confirm this at this time. We adjusted assessed Russian military control given the likely capture of Lysychansk.

Sources: t.me/rian_ru/169579; t.me/nezhurka/2315;

Sources continued. t.me/photographermi…; t.me/ukrainian_guid… ;

https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1543248682329509890

;

https://twitter.com/Cosmonaut19/status/1543286403357847553

;

https://twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1543176243398557696

;

https://twitter.com/AyazK100/status/1543187076853555200

;

Sources continued.

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1543213343233785856

; t.me/miroshnik_r/78…; t.me/millnr/9033; t.me/RKadyrov_95/24…;

2. We recoded previous Russian claims in Privillya as Russian advance after observing evidence of Russian forces being in Privillya on July 1. Sources: t.me/millnr/9032;

3. We recoded previous claims in Verkhnokamyanka as Russian advance after the Ukrainian General Staff confirmed that Russian forces are strengthening themselves in this settlement on July 2.

Source: facebook.com/GeneralStaff.u…

4. On this same point we expanded Russian advances towards Zolotarivka and Verkhnyokamyansk given the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces led an offensive in the direction of Lysychansk-Zolotarivka and Verkhnyokamyansk but had no success and withdrew.

5. We recoded Ivanivka in northern Kherson Oblast as Ukrainian counteroffensives given the Ukrainian General Staff reported on July 21 that Ukrainian combat operations forced a Russian withdrawal from Ivanivka.

Source: facebook.com/GeneralStaff.u…

As always, we will continue to refine our assessment as we collect more information.

All of today's changes are live on our interactive map: storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6…