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Samuel Ramani Profile picture
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Jul 3 • 2 tweets • 1 min read
BREAKING: Turkey detains a Russian cargo ship possessing grain stolen from Ukraine
This is a major victory for Ukraine's efforts to pressure Turkey on illegal grain transfers. But it will also undermine Turkey's neutrality between Russia and Ukraine on the food security issue, and augment tensions with Moscow which are rising over northern Syria

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More from @SamRamani2

Samuel Ramani Profile picture
Jun 15
Russia's influence in Africa has withstood its botched invasion of Ukraine

Will food insecurity, war crimes allegations and secondary sanctions derail Russia's ambitions in Africa? Based on my forthcoming book on Russia in Africa, I share some thoughts /1
The Ukraine war has done little to change Russia's geopolitical alignments in Africa

Russia's key partners, such as Egypt, South Africa and Algeria, have embraced neutrality and regional powers like Nigeria have condemned the war but not sided with Ukraine /2
Business-as-usual relations with Russia are the norm

No African country has sanctioned Russia, mega-projects like El Dabaa in Egypt are intact, Russia struck a new security pact with Cameroon and is exploring energy projects with Nigeria and South Africa /3
Read 9 tweets
Samuel Ramani Profile picture
May 12
Timofey Bordachev, an influential Russian academic, shared his thoughts on Sweden and Finland's NATO accession

Bordachev's opinions provide useful insight into the Kremlin's perceptions of and narratives about these developments. Some more details /1
Bordachev's overall assessment is that Sweden and Finland's pursuit of NATO membership is "irrational" and "suicidal"

Bordachev argues that Russia viewed Sweden and Finland as rational players, but now links them to the "Tallinn to Sofia" belt of US clients /2
Bordachev argues that "Finnish prudence" has been overstated, however, as Finland's neutrality broke with the 1918-44 history of conflict

He argues that the memory of heavy losses to the Soviet Union were all that sustained Finnish prudence /3
Read 7 tweets
Samuel Ramani Profile picture
May 10
Ukraine's first president Leonid Kravchuk has died

I had an opportunity to interview Kravchuk about the road to war between Russia and Ukraine. Some thoughts here /1
Kravchuk was extremely frustrated with the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, which was signed shortly after he left office

Kravchuk accused the signatories of betraying Ukraine and treating the memorandum "like a piece of paper" /2
Unlike Zelensky, however, Kravchuk stridently defended Ukraine's decision to surrender its nukes in the 1990s

Kravchuk argued that Ukraine could not manufacture warheads, the US would not help and Russia would deem a nuclear Ukraine a threat to regional security /3
Read 8 tweets
Samuel Ramani Profile picture
May 7
New Levada Center polling data reveals some very interesting findings on how Russians view the war in Ukraine

Here are some of the most important insights /1
Although the Russian media has called for a total mobilization in support of the war and constantly warns of World War III, apathy towards the war is growing in Russia

59% of Russians closely follow the Ukraine war, which is a decrease from last month /2
Apathy towards the war in Ukraine is especially pronounced amongst youths, just 36% from 18-24 closely follow it and isn't evident amongst older Russians, as 71% closely follow it

This aligns with general greater pro-war enthusiasm amongst Russians who experienced Soviet rule /3
Read 9 tweets
Samuel Ramani Profile picture
May 7
Timofey Bordachev, an influential Russian academic, recently published an essay on Europe's foreign policy conduct and the prospects for nuclear proliferation in Europe

His conclusions provide a window into Kremlin thinking on these topics. Some key points /1
Bordachev notes that Europe has contributed the most to global militarization for decades

Europe's current militarization is threatening, as it is driven by insecurity as the EU bureaucracy seeks to "manage its population" and economic crises emerge /2
Bordachev's conclusions reflect his worldview, as he predicted that Macron's re-election could lead to the end of France's Fifth Republic

But it also reflects Kremlin thinking, as Duma chairman Vyacheslav Volodin highlighted European weakness and urged states to exit the EU /3
Read 9 tweets
Samuel Ramani Profile picture
May 4
Pro-Russian social media accounts are trying to find linkages between Israel and Neo-Nazism in Ukraine

The links are riddled with disinformation, but here are a few to watch out for
One link is Andriy Parubiy's meeting with the Knesset president. Parubiy co-founded the Social-National Party of Ukraine, which had neo-fascist views, but Parubiy severed ties with its successor Svoboda in 2004.

Since 2004, he has been a center-right politician in Ukraine Image
Another link is the Azov Battalion's use of Israel's Matador anti-armour system

This is misleading, as Israel did not directly supply it to Azov. Also, Azov is not a Neo-Nazi organization, its a far-right with some members that espouse Neo-Nazi views
jpost.com/international/…
Read 5 tweets

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