Thread by @untone_v

Ukraine 🇺🇦 will be the first country to recover from this #recession - here is why ⬇️

My thinking in light of #URC2022

Let’s start with “hard” and tangible things

1. Low exposure to financial markets.

SMB credit exposure is 1/3 of European average which is below the US. Retail is similar. Capital market - virtually non-existent. Corporate bonds - used by very few

Hence Ukrainians would not sense massive shockwaves from financial markets as hard as the Western nations.

2. Ukrainian life and business are driven by short-term thinking because things are often volatile here. We had several revolutions, a small-scale war, a large-scale war, numerous currency depreciation rounds.

This made 🇺🇦 resilient to uncertainties. We make decisions quickly, bring business to payoff quickly, think about profit more than we dream of uncertain market cap gains decades into the future.
Those are often skills and approaches needed to weather the storm of a recession

3. Ukraine is already receiving serious financial aid from Western countries to survive the war.
This will have an even larger scale post-war. Look at the numbers discussed at Ukraine Recovery Conference in #Lugano - it goes into hundreds of billions. #URC2022

But above all, it is a mental thing 🫠. Recessions are more psychology than economics.

Layoffs, conservative moves do not stem from objective data or algo - these decisions are subjective based on perceptions of executives about the market, driven by the news and consensus.

Remember Covid: several months of apocalyptic hysteria in the beginning - and a growth market afterwards.

Ukraine has already seen massive economic disruptions, inflation, mass layoffs this year. Months before the Western world faced the same issues (although for different reasons - we had war causing it).

The shock has subsided and our mind is already in the recovery+building mode while most countries are only starting to accept the recession mentally.

So - invest in Ukraine. The payoff will be great.