We are in the midst of yet another wave of Covid. More than one in 30 people across the UK are infected and hospital admission with Covid are up 30 percent week on week. Covid deaths too have started to rise. But this resurgence is hardly being mentioned.
Why is that?
1/9
Certainly, the widespread deployment of vaccines has made a huge difference to the numbers of people dying and becoming critically ill from covid. For many people infection is not as serious as it once was.
But this isn't the whole story.
2/9
The primary reason covid is off the agenda is because it is wildly inconvenient to acknowledge the impact it is having.
3/9
Hospitals, already struggling after two years of covid and chronic underfunding, are coming under renewed pressure. We are currently seeing almost 1500 covid admissions per day to English hospitals.
4/9
Increasing numbers of people are being forced to take time off work, or worse being pressured into going to work and potentially infecting their colleagues. This is not to mention the looming crisis caused by long covid.
5/9
The latest figures suggest over 2 million people in the UK are suffering, with more than 800,000 reporting symptoms lasting longer than a year.
6/9
The government’s strategy for dealing with covid seems to be based around encouraging people to take “personal responsibility”. The problem with this strategy is two-fold...
7/9
Firstly, people’s risk of catching covid is not largely in their own hands.
Secondly, we are not being provided with the tools which would allow us to reduce the risk to ourselves and others.
8/9
Sadly, while we fail to take measures to mitigate against the spread of covid, more people will become infected, which will lead to more hospitalisations and sadly, but inevitably, to more deaths. Covid isn’t over, and pretending it is won’t help matters.
9/9
What's the probability that at least one person in the space you're in has covid?
How does it depend on the population prevalence?
How does it depend on the number of people in the room?
I've been working on this new diagram so I'd be happy to hear feedback on it.
I've also made a version with the current UK prevalence highlighted for ease of use.
The assumptions I've made are 1. That people with covid are distributed uniformly (evenly spread about). 2. 50% of people with covid isolate - so the prevalence out in the world is half the true prevalence. This reflects the fact some people will be asymptomatic and ...
@Wimbledon kicked off this week.
I've always wondered why the tennis scoring system has all these strange terms (love, deuce etc) and a weird points progression (0, 15, 30, 40, game) so I did a bit of research and this is what I found out...
1/21
Let’s begin at the beginning. Why does each game, each set and indeed each match begin at “love all”? Why do tennis aficionados use the word “love” when they mean zero? My favourite explanation is that the French began to use the term “l’oeuf” – meaning “the egg” ...
2/21
– to denote a score of zero because of an egg’s similarity in shape to a nice, round, oval 0, and also possibly because of the egg’s associations with new beginnings.
3/21
ONS infection survey just out.
Infection levels still rising across the UK in all four home nations.
England 1 on 40 infected up from 1 in 50.
Wales 1 in 44 up from 1 in 47.
NI 1 in 30 from 1 in 45
and
Scotland 1 in 20 from 1 in 30.
Prevalence still rising in all regions of England (apart form perhaps the South East and South West, which saw the biggest rises last week).
Prevalence also rising across all age groups.
Perhaps most worrying is the continued rise in the 50-69s and the over 70s, who are at most risk of severe outcomes.
Absolute numbers are still well below BA2 peak but we've seen covid hospitalisations rising steeply in the last couple of weeks - roughly 30% week on week.
1/6
The rise is happening across different age groups - both older and younger people.
(Note under 65 age-group contains a lot more people than over 65s so absolute numbers are not directly comparable).
2/6
The proportion of these covid patients for whom covid is the primary diagnosis is rising, but there are still more people who are "incidental" - although both are rising.
We can expect to see hospital acquired covid increase now that many trusts have removed mask mandates.