A recent sabotage action appears to have effectively broken the back of the ๐ท๐บ-controlled 'land bridge to Crimea'. Depending on sources, the destruction of a key railway bridge between Melitopol and Tokmak was attributed to either partisans or ๐บ๐ฆ SOF. 1/5
Due to several villages in the area being named Lyubymivka, there was some initial confusion over the location. But it is almost certainly the steel bridge over the Molochna River at 47.078779, 35.486520 - in fact closer to the town of Svitlodolynske. 2/5
If so, this brazen attack might effectively block any ability by ๐ท๐บ to transfer goods between southwestern and southeastern ๐บ๐ฆ by train without using the Crimean Bridge. (Image below based on map by @BruckenRuski - destroyed bridge marked with blue circle.) 3/5
In a recent ๐งต, I highlighted how nearby Tokmak is a regional nodal point for ๐ท๐บ logistics. Indeed, the entire unelectrified stretch of railway from Novobohdanivka via Tokmak to Chernihivka is vital for moving stuff across the 'land bridge to Crimea'. 4/5
Now, the extent of the damage is unclear and bridges can of course be repaired. But it is also worth noting that ๐ท๐บ is already facing issues with flooding in Crimea. Further ๐บ๐ฆ attacks on rail infrastructure in the region could prove highly disruptive. 5/5
The city of Bryansk (pop. ~400,000) is a regional industrial hub with a number of valuable targets for the ๐ท๐บ military-industrial complex (MIC). As ๐บ๐ฆ continues to expand its drone strike capabilities, it is possible that Bryansk will become one of the most coveted targets. 1/13
Barely 100 km from ๐บ๐ฆ, Bryansk has been hit by drone strikes before. Still, it remains more unscathed than for instance the closer city of Belgorod. The campaign against oil / gas industry targets across ๐ท๐บ has also minimally impacted Bryansk, which has few such facilities. 2/13
However, an alluring aspect of Bryansk is that it can be all but separated from the wider ๐ท๐บ electricity grid through precision strikes against the Novobryanskaya Transmission Hub (as repeatedly pointed out by @BruckenRuski in a series of posts). 3/13
As OSINT analysts pore over every field between Robotyne and Verbove, ๐บ๐ฆ's counteroffensive near Tokmak is receiving plenty of attention. But the Azov Sea is still terribly far away, so how to properly deal with the ๐ท๐บ land bridge to Crimea? A๐งต: 1/25
This ๐งตis based on my earlier ones about Tokmak and later comments made in various contexts. It addresses the premise that @GeoConfirmed has outlined in the quoted post above. In short, it proposes one objective: Hit the bridges. Then hit them again. 2/25
@GeoConfirmed First a premise: Even after a ๐บ๐ฆ breakthrough of the defensive lines northeast of Tokmak, a ๐ท๐บ collapse is unlikely on the southern front. It is not just about punching through; it is about being able to do so with enough forces to later exploit it. 3/25
Pro-Z agitprop comes in many guises. The TV show 'Evening with Vladimir Solovyov' on Russia-1 is well-known for its host and guests casually engaging in nuclear threats and weird behaviour. But what about other kinds of ๐ท๐บ propaganda? A view from ๐ต๐น. 1/16
On a bimonthly basis, the Embassy of ๐ท๐บ in Lisbon issues the magazine 'Rรบssia'. Its sleek, colourful design suggests a fair amount of effort in its creation. Let us look at the December 2022 edition, issued in 1,500 copies. What awaits us inside? More Solovyov-esque vitriol? 2/16
P. 1: A message by Amb. Mikhail Kamynin, who laments how Western media are โbeing sterilised and monopolised by a single narrativeโ driven by moneyed powers. We are witnessing the creation of a "more balanced, more just and more honest" multipolar world, he consoles himself. 3/16
With todayโs strike against the Crimean Bridge, I would like to revisit my โTokmak thesisโ from June. Basically, it argued that a possible ๐บ๐ฆ offensive towards Tokmak, 30 km from the front and 50 km from Melitopol could help to block ๐ท๐บ supply lines. 1/9
Tokmak has recently surfaced as a topic on Twitter due to speculation that it might serve as a ๐บ๐ฆ springboard to Melitopol. Also, heavy bombardment of nearby ๐ท๐บ storage depots (including in the Tokmak Forging and Stamping Plant) has been reported. 2/9
The Crimean Bridge has been crippled, yet not severed, and is being urgently repaired. But for now, the M14 coastal highway from Berdyansk is the only feasible supply route for ๐ท๐บ troops in Crimea as well as in Kherson and western Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. 3/9
With all eyes now on the Battle of Lyman, the notion of a ๐บ๐ฆ push in northern Luhansk Oblast may also be worth considering. If ๐บ๐ฆ can extend control over the area east of the Oskil River, it might be better suited to address ๐ท๐บ's mobilisation. A๐งต: 1/16
The region under consideration here consists of the two northernmost raions (districts) of Luhansk Oblast, namely Svatove Raion and Starobilsk Raion. It is sparsely populated with a total of 205,000 inhabitants across 8,671 km2 - a population density like Sweden or Iowa. 2/16
In terms of logistics, the ๐ท๐บ military continues to depend on trains. After ๐บ๐ฆโs recent Kharkiv offensive, the last direct ๐ท๐บ-held railway to the Donbas runs through the area (not counting those that involve a lengthy southeastern detour through, or near to, Rostov Oblast). 3/16
I recently described how ๐บ๐ฆ has sought to cut off ๐ท๐บ in northern Kherson Oblast by blasting two strategic bridges over the Dnieper (and another over the Inhulets). This follow-up ๐งต examines the third and last Dnieper crossing - the Nova Kakhovka Dam. 1/21
As the 6th and southernmost dam on the Dnieper, the Nova Kakhovka Dam was finished in 1956 as part of a hydroelectric plant with a reported capacity of 335-357 MW. It is just north of Nova Kakhovka city (pop. 45,000), now held by ๐ท๐บ's 22nd Army Corps. 2/21 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kakhovka_โฆ
Located 60 km northeast of Kherson city, the dam was a key target for ๐ท๐บ forces, who seized it already on 24 February. The P47 regional road (and adjacent railway) on the dam has helped them to supply their troops on the northern bank of the Dnieper. 3/21