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Jul 5, 2022 โ€ข 5 tweets โ€ข 2 min read โ€ข Read on X
A recent sabotage action appears to have effectively broken the back of the ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ-controlled 'land bridge to Crimea'. Depending on sources, the destruction of a key railway bridge between Melitopol and Tokmak was attributed to either partisans or ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ SOF. 1/5
Due to several villages in the area being named Lyubymivka, there was some initial confusion over the location. But it is almost certainly the steel bridge over the Molochna River at 47.078779, 35.486520 - in fact closer to the town of Svitlodolynske. 2/5
If so, this brazen attack might effectively block any ability by ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ to transfer goods between southwestern and southeastern ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ by train without using the Crimean Bridge. (Image below based on map by @BruckenRuski - destroyed bridge marked with blue circle.) 3/5 Image
In a recent ๐Ÿงต, I highlighted how nearby Tokmak is a regional nodal point for ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ logistics. Indeed, the entire unelectrified stretch of railway from Novobohdanivka via Tokmak to Chernihivka is vital for moving stuff across the 'land bridge to Crimea'. 4/5
Now, the extent of the damage is unclear and bridges can of course be repaired. But it is also worth noting that ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ is already facing issues with flooding in Crimea. Further ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ attacks on rail infrastructure in the region could prove highly disruptive. 5/5

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More from @PaxLusitanica

Apr 28, 2024
The city of Bryansk (pop. ~400,000) is a regional industrial hub with a number of valuable targets for the ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ military-industrial complex (MIC). As ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ continues to expand its drone strike capabilities, it is possible that Bryansk will become one of the most coveted targets. 1/13 Image
Barely 100 km from ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ, Bryansk has been hit by drone strikes before. Still, it remains more unscathed than for instance the closer city of Belgorod. The campaign against oil / gas industry targets across ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ has also minimally impacted Bryansk, which has few such facilities. 2/13 Image
However, an alluring aspect of Bryansk is that it can be all but separated from the wider ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ electricity grid through precision strikes against the Novobryanskaya Transmission Hub (as repeatedly pointed out by @BruckenRuski in a series of posts). 3/13
Read 13 tweets
Sep 20, 2023
As OSINT analysts pore over every field between Robotyne and Verbove, ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ's counteroffensive near Tokmak is receiving plenty of attention. But the Azov Sea is still terribly far away, so how to properly deal with the ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ land bridge to Crimea? A๐Ÿงต: 1/25
This ๐Ÿงตis based on my earlier ones about Tokmak and later comments made in various contexts. It addresses the premise that @GeoConfirmed has outlined in the quoted post above. In short, it proposes one objective: Hit the bridges. Then hit them again. 2/25
@GeoConfirmed First a premise: Even after a ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ breakthrough of the defensive lines northeast of Tokmak, a ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ collapse is unlikely on the southern front. It is not just about punching through; it is about being able to do so with enough forces to later exploit it. 3/25
Read 25 tweets
Feb 19, 2023
Pro-Z agitprop comes in many guises. The TV show 'Evening with Vladimir Solovyov' on Russia-1 is well-known for its host and guests casually engaging in nuclear threats and weird behaviour. But what about other kinds of ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ propaganda? A view from ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น. 1/16
On a bimonthly basis, the Embassy of ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ in Lisbon issues the magazine 'Rรบssia'. Its sleek, colourful design suggests a fair amount of effort in its creation. Let us look at the December 2022 edition, issued in 1,500 copies. What awaits us inside? More Solovyov-esque vitriol? 2/16
P. 1: A message by Amb. Mikhail Kamynin, who laments how Western media are โ€œbeing sterilised and monopolised by a single narrativeโ€ driven by moneyed powers. We are witnessing the creation of a "more balanced, more just and more honest" multipolar world, he consoles himself. 3/16
Read 17 tweets
Oct 8, 2022
With todayโ€™s strike against the Crimean Bridge, I would like to revisit my โ€˜Tokmak thesisโ€™ from June. Basically, it argued that a possible ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ offensive towards Tokmak, 30 km from the front and 50 km from Melitopol could help to block ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ supply lines. 1/9
Tokmak has recently surfaced as a topic on Twitter due to speculation that it might serve as a ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ springboard to Melitopol. Also, heavy bombardment of nearby ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ storage depots (including in the Tokmak Forging and Stamping Plant) has been reported. 2/9
The Crimean Bridge has been crippled, yet not severed, and is being urgently repaired. But for now, the M14 coastal highway from Berdyansk is the only feasible supply route for ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ troops in Crimea as well as in Kherson and western Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. 3/9
Read 9 tweets
Sep 24, 2022
With all eyes now on the Battle of Lyman, the notion of a ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ push in northern Luhansk Oblast may also be worth considering. If ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ can extend control over the area east of the Oskil River, it might be better suited to address ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ's mobilisation. A๐Ÿงต: 1/16
The region under consideration here consists of the two northernmost raions (districts) of Luhansk Oblast, namely Svatove Raion and Starobilsk Raion. It is sparsely populated with a total of 205,000 inhabitants across 8,671 km2 - a population density like Sweden or Iowa. 2/16 Svatove Raion (northwest) and Starobilsk Raion (northeast).
In terms of logistics, the ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ military continues to depend on trains. After ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆโ€˜s recent Kharkiv offensive, the last direct ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ-held railway to the Donbas runs through the area (not counting those that involve a lengthy southeastern detour through, or near to, Rostov Oblast). 3/16
Read 16 tweets
Aug 11, 2022
I recently described how ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ has sought to cut off ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ in northern Kherson Oblast by blasting two strategic bridges over the Dnieper (and another over the Inhulets). This follow-up ๐Ÿงต examines the third and last Dnieper crossing - the Nova Kakhovka Dam. 1/21 Image
As the 6th and southernmost dam on the Dnieper, the Nova Kakhovka Dam was finished in 1956 as part of a hydroelectric plant with a reported capacity of 335-357 MW. It is just north of Nova Kakhovka city (pop. 45,000), now held by ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ's 22nd Army Corps. 2/21 en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kakhovka_โ€ฆ
Located 60 km northeast of Kherson city, the dam was a key target for ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ forces, who seized it already on 24 February. The P47 regional road (and adjacent railway) on the dam has helped them to supply their troops on the northern bank of the Dnieper. 3/21
Read 21 tweets

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