Over the course of the past several weeks we have learned the following:
* US intelligence operatives and special forces have been deployed in Ukraine throughout the ongoing war.
* These US troops are *directly* involved in attacking Russian targets.
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* US-provided intelligence of various types, combined with US “hands-on” training and (almost certainly) even direct operation of US advanced weaponry, has resulted in:
- the killing of Russian field commanders
- (allegedly, but not yet confirmed) the sinking of the Moskva
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- the terrorist-style attacks on Russian cities
- very recent attacks on Russian ammo depots
To emphasize: US military personnel are DIRECTLY involved in battlefield strikes against Russian forces and terrorist strikes against Russian civilians.
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Now, of course, the reaction of many to these revelations will be: “Good! Those damn orcs deserve it!” And so on and so forth.
But, in the immortal words of William Munny, “Deserve’s got nothin’ to do with it.”
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All that matters is that the hard power of the United States is being DIRECTLY applied against Russians in a war – and THAT is something that has *profound* potential consequences – the flapping of butterfly wings that could very likely spawn hurricanes in their wake.
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The government and military of the United States is, quite literally, PLAYING WITH FIRE.
The Russians may have their shortcomings – that is up for debate – but backing down from a fight forced upon them offends every fiber of their national psyche.
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Frankly, I believe it is already too late for the US to avoid the inevitable repercussions of what they have done, and continue to do in Ukraine. What the Russians will do and when remains to be seen. Putin is the most patient and deliberate Russian leader in modern times.
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But it should now be abundantly evident to everyone that when he chooses to act, he does so boldly and resolutely.
Russia now understands it is at war with America. I am convinced they will, sooner than later, respond proportionately to US attacks upon them.
8/end
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My reactions to Gonzalo Lira’s commentary on Mike Pompeo’s recent “Three Lighthouses for Liberty” speech – a brazen compendium of transparent lies and cynical projection:
I am not yet persuaded Pompeo is “speaking for the entire American foreign policy establishment.” I continue to believe there is a powerful contingent of realist-leaning wiser heads, at least in the Pentagon.
It remains to be seen whether or not these would-be Praetorian Guards of American hegemony have or will yet attain decisive policy-making power within the US government. If they continue ascendant, I believe they will be forcefully opposed at a critical juncture.
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Given the myopic focus of the "Ukraine is winning" crowd on the alleged (and fallacious) Russian "defeat" at Kiev, I am reminded of how, during the US Civil War, Abraham Lincoln was ceaselessly frustrated with his early cadre of generals.
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Much like the vast majority of current western military “experts”, Lincoln’s early generals were illogically focused on the objective of “taking Richmond” – the capital of the Confederacy. This obsession dominated the strategic focus of the Union for most of the war.
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Lincoln, on the other hand – notwithstanding there is no evidence he ever read von Clausewitz – intuitively and correctly understood that it was not a city, nor any piece of territory, per se, that was the objective upon which his West Point-trained generals should focus.
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🧵Why the US/NATO could never win and will never fight a war against Russia – unless the #EmpireAtAllCosts cult somehow seizes the reins of power, in which case, it will become the biggest catastrophe in US military history, and likely result in a nuclear war:
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For me, one of the most intriguing aspects of the unprecedented levels of propaganda beclouding the ongoing Ukraine War are the incessant claims, from the very beginning, of the alleged strategic, tactical, and logistical ineptitude of the Russian military.
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The theme of the bumbling Russians was clearly preconceived and coordinated, and commenced in earnest within the first 24 hours of hostilities. It is also apparent, to me at least, that it has emanated almost exclusively from the CIA/MI6 analyst/think-tank complex.
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I've watched a LOT of drone footage from this war. I've seen, from a bird's eye view, the construction and logic of the field fortifications Ukraine constructed, with US guidance, over the course of eight years.
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The logic of these ubiquitous pre-prepared fortifications harkens back to the 1864-65 Battle of Petersburg (US Civil War), with many WW1 innovations – a logic where victory depends on:
- you not running out of men and ammo
- the enemy being comparatively stupid
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Of course, when you think about it, the revealed logic of Ukraine’s long-prepared strategy for this war is, in many ways, a reflection of American military delusions and vanities, which multiplied and solidified over the course of the brief and fleeting “unipolar moment”.
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Multiple sources now reporting that ~2k AFU + foreign fighters trapped at Azot plant in Severodonetsk are begging to surrender. They are completely surrounded and being pounded by artillery 24/7. Many dozens have already surrendered.
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Remember it was just two weeks ago that Zelenskyy said “the fate of eastern Ukraine” would be decided in Severodonetsk. Well … that’s very close to being true. A disorderly collapse has commenced all along the front in the Donbass.
There are also, reportedly, several hundred foreign mercenaries trapped in Severodonetsk. It will be fascinating to see how many and who they really are when the inevitable “evacuation” to Russian detention camps occurs in coming days.
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So the most recent move on the RISK board sees the US and its dutiful NATO vassals opting to play the Suwalki Gap card.
Let’s explore the likely perspectives of the respective combatants.
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For Russia:
Kaliningrad is a geostrategic imperative. Its defense would entail all the levels of escalation on the meter.
For the US/NATO:
“Restoring” Kaliningrad to the west would represent a *major* geostrategic setback for Russia.
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I recently stumbled on this brief post. I’m not familiar with the site, whether it is prominent or obscure. It doesn’t matter. What I recognized in these few paragraphs was the textual imprint of a likely intel / propaganda operation.