Thread by @althecat

This Ugandan story about the alleged Uganda-TPLF military tie-up/training program contains a significant amount of new detail related to diplomatic discussions of the matter between Ethiopia and Uganda during may and June.
monitor.co.ug/uganda/news/na…

The @BBC is now also covering the story - & features an IV with UPDF's spokesman on both of it's popular African news podcast news shows:
#AfricaToday (Link >>bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0c…) and
#FocusOnAfrica (Link >> bbc.co.uk/programmes/w17…). bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cm…

@BBC The source of the report Scoop.co.nz is not mentioned in any of these news reports but here is a link.

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1542571407565099009?s=20&t=XNiuPOP-LKgVDqVTR6K5AA

In his BBC interview the @UPDFspokesperson repeatedly says the Govts of Ethiopia and Uganda had a meeting "three months ago" to discuss the rumours - but at that point their were no rumours. Widespread rumours only started on May 4th when the Zehabesha covered it on @Youtube.

For this to make more sense (i.e. April meetings) it is possible that he is actually referring to @mkainerugaba's tweets about Tigray, rather than the allegations about training camps based in Uganda.

@mkainerugaba An alternative interpretation- that Ethiopia-Uganda were discussing the training camp allegations in April- would seemingly confirm that there was something to discuss, i.e. confirm the substance of the report.

However this is far from clear on the plain words.

@mkainerugaba The extensive information in The Monitor's report is sigificantly more helpful in expanding our knowledge of what may have happened here. [Link >> monitor.co.ug/uganda/news/na…]

@mkainerugaba Any assistance on explaining/decoding/understanding some of these references would be very welcome.

"An alleged leaked intelligence report dubbed; First Forward xxx2xxx" << dubbed where? I wonder if this is a reference to a search identifier in social media channels?

This reference is interesting. It seems to refer to @mkainerugaba's tweets. I was unaware that an USG of the @UN, Ms @Winnie_Byanyima had said anything about any of this. And wonder if this is a reference to something . I can't find anything in twitter.

@mkainerugaba @UN @Winnie_Byanyima It appears Ms @Winnie_Byanyima's husband @kizzabesigye1 has recently been arrested for protesting the cost of living in Uganda.

https://twitter.com/Winnie_Byanyima/status/1542238676704428038?s=20&t=_4eTnCizJ3NUQ6wQ4u9Alw

redpepper.co.ug/2022/06/i-want…

I had assumed this crucial top level Ethiopia-Uganda diplomatic meeting on May 13th about this matter (the only report of which was here >> plusnews.ug/details-uganda… [A denial of the rumours which were by then circulating]) had taken place in Uganda. But no, it was in Ethiopia.

This is important as it suggests that the Govt. of Ethiopia's concerns about the document were serious enough to warrant asking the Ugandan Minister of Defence to come to Ethiopia to discuss them.
[A reference to this Press Release online would be helpful.]

And here we learn that there were two more meetings in this time frame with Ethiopia's Field Marshal Birhanu Jula. The First on May 17th (with FM Jula's counterpart), & a 2nd meeting on or about May 31st, again in Ethiopia - this time with Ugandan Intel and Legal officials.

So what can we read into all this.

1. We can make some assumptions about the likely source of this additional startling information.
a) It must have come from official sources in the GoE or the GoU.
b) Three meetings would not have been held about a "rumour" or a fake document.

On their face this confirms that there is some substance - albeit it is unclear as yet what that substance is - to the allegations made in the mystery document which I published on Friday July 1st.

2. Read together with the @UPDFspokespersn's statements to @BBCWorldService it is apparent that there is a degree of confusion and disarray in Kampala over the report. The spokesperson talks repeatedly about a meeting three months ago.

But this report confirms that three meetings were held in Addis Ababa, seemingly meetings called by the Govt. of Ethiopia to discss the allegations on May 13th, May 17th and or around May 31st by the most senior officials in security matters of both countries.

In conclusion: Whilst we cannot confirm the contents of the "alleged leaked intelligence report i.e. "Mystery Document" (dubbed "First Forward xxx2xxx") and published in full on Friday 1st July - we can confirm that it was being taken very seriously in May.

And given that we now have three public denials of the allegations in the document by @UPDFSpokesperson, May 13th (press release), Sunday July 3 (tweet) and Monday July 4th (BBC radio IV) we can see the story is not going away.

https://twitter.com/UPDFspokespersn/status/1544320332785401858?s=20&t=v5MCVZBGiuC1TgeTr1m5nA

So far 3 other govt's implicated in the leaked intelligence document - Egypt, the United States and South Sudan - have made no statements themselves.
But the Govt. of Uganda denied July 3rd the allegation that South Sudan's spy chief was coordinating the operation.

/ENDS

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