🧵Pompeo's Bats in the Belfry

My reactions to Gonzalo Lira’s commentary on Mike Pompeo’s recent “Three Lighthouses for Liberty” speech – a brazen compendium of transparent lies and cynical projection:

1/

I am not yet persuaded Pompeo is “speaking for the entire American foreign policy establishment.” I continue to believe there is a powerful contingent of realist-leaning wiser heads, at least in the Pentagon.

Pompeo is only speaking for the #EmpireAtAllCosts death cult.

2/
It remains to be seen whether or not these would-be Praetorian Guards of American hegemony have or will yet attain decisive policy-making power within the US government. If they continue ascendant, I believe they will be forcefully opposed at a critical juncture.

3/
I have frequently conjectured that, were the Pentagon ordered by US political leadership to make war against Russia and/or China, wiser heads within the military would act to disobey that order, in the interests of US national security and the future of human civilization.

4/
I may be naïve in believing such a thing. But, for now, I cling to that fraying thread of hope. I am convinced many within the US military understand perfectly well that the US could not win wars against Russia or China in eastern Europe or the South China Sea.

5/
The simple calculus of raw power dictates the conclusion that the fatally over-extended American military lacks sufficient power to concentrate decisive force against even one of those nations, let alone against both simultaneously.

6/
As for the notion that the US/NATO can somehow snatch victory from the jaws of defeat in Ukraine by providing an endless supply of advanced armaments, it is nothing but a pipe dream. The NATO arms cupboard is already approaching exhaustion.

7/
But even were such aircraft, heavy weaponry, and effective air-defense systems available in numbers sufficient to make a difference, there is no longer an effective fighting force in Ukraine to use them. Ukraine’s professional military cadre has been fatally attrited.

8/
Lira cites this reality in his commentary as well, and it is the insuperable obstacle to “turning the tide” in favor of Ukraine. The US/NATO spent eight years training and equipping their “Mother of All Proxy Armies” in Ukraine, and that army is now irretrievably wrecked.

9/
As for the clownish Pompeo’s speech, it is a typical specimen of his well-documented penchant for quasi-incoherent rhetorical bravado. Its internal logic is fragmented and self-contradictory, and filled to the brim with cynical mendacious projection.

10/
Gonzalo conjectures that the speech was likely vetted by the current residents of the US State Department. I suppose it’s possible. But I still remain unconvinced – at present – that it is an authoritative expression of US foreign policy intent or potential actions.

11/
For example, I cannot believe the US would buy itself a war against China by recognizing Taiwan sovereignty. And make no mistake, it *would* mean war – a war the US could NOT win, and which would summarily terminate dominant US power in the western Pacific.

12/
Pompeo’s speech is utterly delusional, and is tantamount to a declaration of suicidal intent on the part of the #EmpireAtAllCosts cult. Is it possible they ARE suicidal in the sense that they are determined to leave a scorched earth in the wake of their inexorable defeat?

13/
If so, that’s where my “wiser heads” thesis comes into play. I refuse, at present, to believe the Pentagon can be persuaded to be party to the destruction of modern civilization – including America – at the behest of fanatics such as Mike Pompeo.

14/end

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