Glad to be back on again with @dmoses34 & @GuyAdami to talk about Macro, JPY, CNY, Gold, Oil but perhaps most importantly -- HOW CONTAGION HAPPENS. We end with an Idiosyncratic Event-Driven idea.
I highlighted BOJ's Dilemma as potentially the FIRST Domino in last weekend's "Battle of the BADS" post.
From the Show Notes this weekend, I wrote:
"Devaluation is the LESS BAD Choice for each of the individual actors (BOJ/PBOC/ECB) acting on its own because even though these countries run the risk of importing Commodity Inflation, they also benefit from Export Competitiveness...
The PROBLEM for Risk Assets globally is that when all of these CBs make the decisions that are most optimal (LESS BAD) for themselves, they can trigger COMPETITIVE DEVALUATIONS, which is what led to the Asian Contagion 1.0 of 1997-1998."
Given the inability of $TLT to bounce (and the potential Bear Steepener that portends) and the mixed reactions to the AI Lovefest today, I would not be surprised to see Equities end in the RED by EOD.
Been pondering the $BA Macro effects.
Will this ration Jet Fuel/Oil Demand (Deflationary) or will it spike airfares (Inflationary)?
Not quite a Red Day, but quite a conspicuous FADE into the close.
Micro:
While y'all have been enjoying Jensen, my brain is scrambled eggs from listening to ~6 hours of closing arguments in the Puerto Rico PREPA Bankruptcy hearing.