Musings of the Day, 4/10/25:

I’ve long felt that many sell-side research analysts are closet technicians, weaving whatever Macro word salad is necessary to rationalize their technical views.

The problem with this approach in a market that cares 99% about Economic Statecraft headlines over everything else right now is that the charts themselves can chop you to bits.

Two things make me optimistic that we will skirt a Recession despite slowing growth:

1. The US Economy has a turning radius more akin to an Aircraft Carrier than a Speedboat.

2. What I said yesterday morning about this crisis being manufactured means that it can go away just as quickly without lasting damage.

Expect a bumpy ride and continued Fat Tails in both directions.

Welcome to the Trump 2.0 Asteroid Field.
Correctamundo.

I have been saying the same thing all along.

https://x.com/urbankaoboy/status/1908883383935197190?s=46

Musings of the Day, 4/8/25:

There is no better evidence of China’s Top-Down GDP Targeted Economy than this.

This is NOT Globalization based on Comparative Advantage between countries.

This is a Runaway Assembly Line that churns out an endless stream of goods regardless of economic losses or demand, because China needs to keep its restive masses employed and it can no longer to do so by building ghost cities and bridges to nowhere.

It’s fine and dandy when the $21T US Consumer was waving it all in, but eventually that gravy train had to stop given the resultant atrophy of America’s industrial muscle.

Good luck if you think the RoW will absorb everything. Possible Key Reversal day in the Long Bond signaling the end to this particular Flight to Safety?

Something I will be watching closely.

Musings of the Day, 4/6/25:

There were 2 keys Lessons I learned from Trump 1.0:

Lesson 1: Mosh Pit Theorem -- make others believe you're crazy, and even bigger guys won't fuck with you (I've personally used this at Slayer concerts).

Lesson 2: Art of the Deal -- open any negotiation with an outrageous ask with the intention of settling right on the original goal.

Imho, you can either buy into the notion that the entire Trump 2.0 Economic Team fucked up the Tariff formulas by accident and make linear extrapolations that it will bring about another Great Depression, or you can remember the Trump 1.0 Playbook to help navigate through the noise of Trump 2.0. Ask yourself:

If the goal was Persistent Tariffs and to make the Tariff Formulas impossible to comply with, why is this happening?

https://twitter.com/defense_civil25/status/1908315865457602640

Musings of the Day, 4/2/25:

Amazing how many people latched onto a headline put out by “Chinese state media” yesterday and held it as credible.

Imagine if “Chinese state media” didn’t give you that little clue and masqueraded as someone else.

Unthinkable right? 🙄

H/t @TheMichaelEvery Bold Prediction:

The Nash Equilibrium of this game is ZERO Tariffs across the board.

https://twitter.com/kobeissiletter/status/1907533834876277016

Musings of the Day, 2/5/25:

Hate to admit it, but Macro data doesn’t matter much these days!

😵‍💫 Correctamundo.

And Export Independence is America’s shield in these Tariff battles.

https://twitter.com/vrntperception/status/1887144442219389172

Musings of the Day, 11/6/24:

Good news for the Republicans:
Red Sweep

Bad news for the Republicans:
No one to blame if they fuck it up

I hope a united Government can unite the COUNTRY now.🙏🇺🇸 My Macro Trades this am:

- Took profit on my $SVIX on this Vol Crush
- Bought $SPY Put Spreads to fade this extreme ebullience, especially with LT Yields SPIKING
- Bought $XOM Put Spreads because of my concern that Trump gives Saudis a "Security Guarantee For Oil" Deal

Musings of the Day, 11/4/24:

Thanks to my antiquated, non-Internet connected bedside clock that I forgot to update and Daylight Savings Time, I woke up at 3:45 am today.

I now have an extra 2 hours to be bombarded with election crap. 🙄 Anti-China Protectionism is just getting started, regardless of who wins tomorrow in the US.

When China’s Industrial Policy is NOT based on Comparative Advantage and is divorced from economic signals, no one can compete with it.

businessinsider.com/china-responds…

Musings of the Day, 9/18/24:

Gentle reminder that at YE’23 after the Dec Rhetoric Pivot, the market had priced in 200 bps of cuts for 2024.

So when folks tell me “the probability of x bps is xx%,” here is my retort: Ok, what AUM Gatherer is believing his own bullshit right now? 😂🤡

Musings of the Day, 6/6/24:

My Pusillanimous Put strategy today will be to uncap my recently bought OTM $NVDA Put Spreads.

From my friend Chris Murphy @ Susquehanna on $NVDA: The Out-Doving of the Fed continues.

https://x.com/LiveSquawk/status/1798690142242107611

Musings of the Day, 5/2/24:

I love this headline from today's DB CoTD:

"How to work only 24 days a year"

The Pelican has taken note!! 😎 After what I heard yesterday from Pusillanimous Powell, I am going to repeat what I said to @JackFarley96 here:

Watch out for a Bear Steepener first and then for an even nastier BULL Steepener if the Fed capitulates on H4L too soon.

https://twitter.com/jackfarley96/status/1720121510981972398

Glad to be back on again with @dmoses34 & @GuyAdami to talk about Macro, JPY, CNY, Gold, Oil but perhaps most importantly -- HOW CONTAGION HAPPENS. We end with an Idiosyncratic Event-Driven idea.

Show Notes became a full Thread this time!

urbankaoboy.com/p/interview-on… I highlighted BOJ's Dilemma as potentially the FIRST Domino in last weekend's "Battle of the BADS" post.

From the Show Notes this weekend, I wrote:

"Devaluation is the LESS BAD Choice for each of the individual actors (BOJ/PBOC/ECB) acting on its own because even though these countries run the risk of importing Commodity Inflation, they also benefit from Export Competitiveness...

The PROBLEM for Risk Assets globally is that when all of these CBs make the decisions that are most optimal (LESS BAD) for themselves, they can trigger COMPETITIVE DEVALUATIONS, which is what led to the Asian Contagion 1.0 of 1997-1998."

https://x.com/Fxhedgers/status/1779498414381703228

Musings of the Day, 4/11/24:

Incredible gaslighting, pun intended.

Just how stupid do they think consumers are?

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1778409359673840002

Incredible one day wobble in the Bottom-Most Jenga Block of the Risk Edifice!

Musings of the Day, 3/18/24:

Given the inability of $TLT to bounce (and the potential Bear Steepener that portends) and the mixed reactions to the AI Lovefest today, I would not be surprised to see Equities end in the RED by EOD. Been pondering the $BA Macro effects.

Will this ration Jet Fuel/Oil Demand (Deflationary) or will it spike airfares (Inflationary)?

Maybe a little of both and a net nothing-burger?

zerohedge.com/markets/less-f…

Musings of the Day, 3/12/24:

The CPI came in hotter than expected but maybe not hot enough to forestall a Fed that seems eager to cut (at least based on market reactions).

My own odds of a June cut are rising, although I think it sets the stage for a problem in 2025. I agree with @biancoresearch 's thesis that if they don't cut by June they are trapped into inaction for fear of seeming partisan.

Therefore, I expect a certain "lumpiness" to the Fed's calculus for the June decision.

New post in Bio!

Re: Investing - Private Credit & The Ostrich Effect.

Private Credit is the fastest growing piece of the Leveraged Credit Trifecta which also includes Leveraged Loans and High Yield.

This piece covers:

- 4 Liquidity Categories for Yield Vehicles
- The Ostrich Effect of not Marking-to-Market
- CLOs vs BDCs
- Volatility vs Risk of Permanent Capital Impairment

#PrivateCredit #HighYield #LeveragedLoans #Credit #CLO #BDC Here is a strong sign that Private Credit is providing Exit Bid financing for Lev Loans.

2023 was the first time in years that the Lev Loan market CONTRACTED despite continued CLO growth.

Private Credit is IMPROVING Supply/Demand dynamic for Lev Loans.

Episode 5 of KAOS Theory is out!

@ttmygh and I interview retired Brigadier General Robert Spalding (@robert_spalding) on the topic of Information Warfare and the CCP's methods of "Unrestricted Warfare" in this age of rising Geopolitical Conflict.

urbankaoboy.com/p/kaos-theory-… Robert Spalding is a retired Brigadier General of the United States Air Force. He has previously served as Senior Advisor on China to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Defense Attaché to China, and Senior Director for Strategic Planning at the National Security Council under the Trump Administration​​. General Spalding is a Senior Fellow at the Hudson Institute with a focus on U.S.-China relations and is also CEO of SEMPRE (Secure EMP-Resistant Edge).

Musings of the Day, 1/24/24:

I covered the last bit of my $XOP Put deltas at 127 and Gamma has taken me long now.

Oil Technicals look slightly better, but the Fundamentals still suck, and I'm likely to whack this thing out again if I can get a decent bounce.

@BurggrabenH Already puked my $UVXY for teeny scratch — shame on me for trying.

Taking it all out on pumped Idiosyncratic Implieds and selling some OTM Calls against some of my names that have ripped with this Equity rally.

Musings of the Day, 12/27/23:

EUR strength is both perplexing and obfuscating in its masking of USD strength elsewhere.

Is Lackadaisical LaGarde really going to Out-Hawk Pusillanimous Powell?

Rhetorically, it would appear so, but in the end, ACTIONS speak louder than words.

Very confusing Macroeconomic Pond again.

- Bonds, Gold, BTC/Crypto, USD all pricing in Recession->QE.
- Equities and even Base Metals pricing in Reaccelerating Growth.
- Oil is just confused.

If anyone has a Crystal Ball, I'd love to borrow it.🙋‍♂️

https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1624949595183931393?s=20

I finally finished my new post:

Re: Investing - Opening The Kimono: 2023 In Review.

I seldom talk about my Micro/Idiosyncratic bets, but I "open the kimono" here as I talk both Micro/Macro and share some thoughts on 2024. Think of this as my Year-End Letter to my biggest LP - Me.

Link can be found in my Bio.

Merry Christmas and Best Wishes for 2024! The thing I love about that other community that shall not be named is that it allows me to go back and fix typos/grammatical errors after the fact.

I also made a bunch of additions to the post. Enjoy!

Musings of the Day, 12/13/23:

Good chart from Bloomberg by way of @nglinsman and @Halsrethink that corroborates my Dry Tinder Mental Model for Inflation:

https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1729875600511496347?s=20

While I am surprised by today's unequivocally Dovish Dots, remember that the Fed is a monarchy and not a democracy.

I continue to believe that the loosening of FCI will wind up being self-defeating in the end. I would not be surprised to see the Dots migrate back up next year.

New thread is out!

Re: Inflation/Oil/Gold/Yield Curves - Revisiting Bear Steepening, Recency Bias & That 70's Show.

"Loss of Faith" narratives abound with respect to the UST and USD with the recent Bear Steepening, which I debunk.

open.substack.com/pub/urbankaobo… Latest from Lakshmi on Oil, which I 100% agree with:

"We have built up nearly 8-9$/BBL of war premium in a market that has seen no supply disruption, Asian and EU demand showing significant cracks, and the US just about a q behind them."