I've been tracking aircraft by exploiting their transponder emissions for years, and I still see new things every day. I'm only one of many of people who exploit open sources to tease out untold stories; some people moonlight, and for some it's their day job.
Everyone has their own unique interest. My desire is to show the public, and especially journalists, where the seam between publicly available information and the unknown exists. I have the impression most people don't know how much is at their fingertips in 2022.
The sort of analysis that would previously only be accessible to the intelligence community can be assembled by ordinary citizens with no military-specific training, just access to the right tools (Google Docs, Earth), and publicly available data.
I believe the press needs to play a role in conveying to the public that anyone in the world can listen in and decode Russian Navy morse code messages being sent back to Russia over HF. Anyone can put a little more effort in and triangulate where they're transmitting from.
Anyone can listen in to Russian bombers calling home while carrying out strikes on Ukraine. Radio communications that a lot of the public might assume are inaccessible or encrypted simply aren't.
Anyone can draw am 85 km circle around the targets of HIMARS fire in Russian-occupied Ukraine to determine vaguely where the rocket launches are being made from. The Russian army knows better than us, they're just incapable of doing anything about it.
Anyone with the right skills/tools can look up at the sky and identify spy satellites as they fly over. We would never be given that level of detail by official sources, yet we can safely circulate the information, because the militaries of the world track satellites themselves.
Anyone with an internet browser can track civilian and military aircraft worldwide, and if they're proficient, cobble together some really interesting reports about aircraft usage.
It's up to public affairs to learn to roll with and exploit these changes to their advantage. They should assume Canadians know when every Royal Canadian Air Force plane takes off and lands, and not fear issuing press releases about exercises in kind; get ahead of the message.
Let's use the return of #RCAF CP-140 140114 from Italy where it was doing an Op REASSURANCE rotation as an example. The mission was publicly announced in February.
pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-r…
The last rotation that had been operating out of Italy returned home to #19WingComox 2022-07-02 (Saturday), and by all indications they arrived on schedule, after stopping in Iceland.
Public Affairs published a "welcome back" on 2022-07-05, Tuesday afternoon; I guess I shouldn't complain it took two business days to put out a press release. 🤷‍♂️
I haven't noticed any news media publish that the rotations of CP-140 Aurora aircraft the Government of Canada committed to in February have completed their #OpREASSURANCE mission, and the last one is home. They left Italy on 2022-07-01, Canada Day.
It's not scintillating news, but it would be nice if the public understood these international deployments happen regularly and should be commended. Nobody would know why the Block IV upgrades are important if they didn't know the Block IIIs are traveling the world regularly.

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More from @steffanwatkins

Jul 3
🇦🇺 Assessment of Royal Australian Air Force aircraft readiness (some of them anyway), extrapolating from their Mode-S transponder RF emissions, compiled 2022-07-03.

Aircraft that haven't flown in over a month are believed to be (temporarily?) out of service. #RAAF ImageImageImageImage
🇨🇦 I'm using the same methodology as the #RCAF assessments I've published.

In comparison, please notice it's completely normal to have some (small) number of aircraft out of the pool for maintenance, almost all the time, for almost all aircraft.
Some of the identified aircraft haven't yet been delivered to the RAAF, so they're not actually *out* of service, they haven't yet come *into* service - I didn't want to make a new category, so I just recycled "out of service". Apologies for any confusion.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 29
🇨🇦 Latest assessment of CH-149 Cormorant distribution and readiness based on their Mode-S transponder emissions.

Summary:
‣ 3 at #CFBGreenwood
‣ 2 at #CFBGander
‣ 3 at #CFBComox

Meaning, 43% of the #RCAF CH-149 Cormorant helicopters are up on blocks.

#103Sqn #413Sqn #442Sqn
43% laid up and out of commission?

Is that bad?

It's not good.

Thankfully the Cormorant Mid-Life Upgrade is underway, scheduled to be completely finished by 2028, but they haven't awarded the contract yet...
I thought it was Leonardo that couldn't follow basic instructions and misconfigured almost all their transponders in the #RCAF CH-149 Cormorant fleet, but that's none of my business, I could be wrong, and I haven't seen that investigation the RCAF promised either. 🤷‍♂️
Read 4 tweets
Jun 29
🇨🇦 In June the #RCAF participated in a Search and Rescue exercise based out of Lajes, in The Azores, and for some reason didn't think the Canadian public wanted to know, so they didn't tell anyone anything.

It might have been part of #ASAREX #ASAREX22 #ASAREX2022, I can't tell.
Here is video, part of the exercise filmed by one of the locals. (h/t @Dapotayto1 for the link!)

[ ⚠️ I INCLUDED IMPRECISE DATA ON PURPOSE ]

I'm unclear when the exercise started or ended, but their call sign suggests they began to prepare in early June

#CFC2127
2022-06-06 Between Greenwood/Summerside
2022-06-15 Over the Bay of Fundy
2022-06-18 To Lajes
2022-06-19 To Lajes
Read 4 tweets
Jun 28
🇨🇦⚓️ You tease! There are five (5) CH-148 Cyclone detachments deployed with Royal Canadian Navy Halifax-class ships? Okay, let's enumerate them.
The entire CH-148 fleet uses Mode-S, so we need to use MLAT to geolocate their positions; at sea it's hard to find four receivers to geolocate with MLAT.

globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=c2b41d,c…
Read 9 tweets
Jun 24
You know what I haven't seen fly lately? US-registered #N330TT shell company-owned, related to MAG Aerospace. That's the famous ISR King Air that #CANSOFCOM contracted to conduct "training" (with their ADS-B transponder off) over Ottawa.

#A3978A
globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=a3978a&l… ImageImage
Normal aircraft cannot degrade their transponder emissions and go from using ADS-B (broadcasting their exact location) to simple Mode-S (no location broadcast) only a day apart; it's a signature of a spook plane, and I thank them for a great example of one
globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=a3978a&l… Image
Here we see what ISR training looks like, hours of precise orbits around a target. They're using Mode-S, so the jaggy lines are from multilateration slop; their flight path is actually very smooth, the jaggies are just a sensor anomaly.

globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=a3978a&l… Image
Read 6 tweets
May 4
🇨🇦 It should be pretty easy to prove the American-registered ISR aircraft conducting surveillance over Ottawa in late January and early February was not related to the convoy. A course plan? Any documentation re: booking the training?
(Skip ahead to 35:03)
A timeline of the "trucker" occupation of Ottawa from CTV 👇
ctvnews.ca/canada/freedom…
2022-01-25
#N330TT appears out of nowhere over Metcalf at 3000ft, lands at #YOW; it made it that far without being detected by open source flight trackers. That's suspicious; private aircraft can't do that.
We know now it's a spook plane, not just private.
globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=a3978a&l…
Read 28 tweets

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