I'm a research consultant, a writer, a source. I track aircraft & ships using publicly available info. I fact-check public officials regularly. I show my work.
Aug 11 • 54 tweets • 22 min read
🇨🇦⚓️ Where #HMCSMontréal has been since March 26, when they departed Halifax on #OpPROJECTION, using @MarineTraffic AIS-T and AIS-S data. 🧵
This thread serves as a guide, to you the reader, of what to look for in Royal Canadian Navy communications; it's your crackerjack box secret decoder ring when they're vague.
All of this information has been broadcast by the ship's AIS transponder over the airwaves, picked up with every SIGINT satellite in orbit, military and commercial, every plane in line-of-sight(LOS), collected by every significant adversary, and included in a dossier with other intelligence, that was reported up their chain of command, before I woke up this morning.
Our military and government public affairs officials can, without compromising national security, speak plainly and include everything up to (at least) this level of information, because every adversary already knows; they told them. They got the memo.
This is also the minimum amount of detail that the public should expect in any media story about HMCS Montréal's deployment; all this information is at journalists' fingertips too. Public affairs should be more forthright to make journalists' lives easier. This information isn't a secret to the outside world.
🇬🇧 41% (9) of the RAF A400M Atlas fleet of 22 do not fly. Of the remaining 59% (13) that do fly, some of them are deployable, and some are homebodies doing training and certification. #ZM406 returned from the Airbus depot in Getafe, Spain 🇪🇸.
🇬🇧 RAF C-130J Hercules #ZH869#43C198 was sent to Cambridge 🇬🇧 to be decommissioned, bringing the number of Hercs remaining to 5, all of which are flying regularly, except #ZH870#43C04C hasn't flown in a week.. maybe they're next? 🪦
+ No coverage of the Herc flight to Benghazi.
May 21 • 13 tweets • 11 min read
There's nothing that reinforces the stupidity of mankind like Facebook drama.
Hasn't anyone thought about the implications of what the government admits to doing?
Forget that they factually, deliberately, stopped transmitting Mode-S/ADS-B to hide their "training" operations over Ottawa; what is their data retention policy, on the data they collected from… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Let's review the flight data that shows the arrival of American-registered N330TT #A3978A call sign CAVE033 operated by MAG Aerospace (per contract) from when they arrived in Ottawa on Tuesday January 25, 2022 from Hagerstown, Maryland - immediately before the arrival of the… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Feb 27 • 11 tweets • 7 min read
"China promptly issued a protest on Monday after a US Navy P-8A Poseidon reconnaissance plane flew through the Taiwan Strait"
Monday, their time, is still 2023-02-27, ie today.
Did anyone already identify which #USNavy Boeing P-8A Poseidon that was this morning?
Are you familiar with how MLAT works? I have a dataviz/infographic/GIS visualisation challenge that I'm coming to the realization I do not have the skills to adequately convey in a graphic, and am looking for some help.
Basically, I'd like to show what Syria (say) would look like with a robust MLAT-gathering network of Mode-S receivers in an isometric 3D representation, showing overlapping coverage cones, and the density of receivers needed for border or nationwide MLAT, if that makes any sense.
Very interesting; if I'm not mistaken the #AusAirForce changed their emissions posture vis-a-vis their transponder between their 2020 and 2021 #OpARGOS missions. In 2020, either they didn't fly, or they obfuscated their patrols sufficiently to avoid open source scrutiny.
From 2020-09-22 to 2020-10-24 🇦🇺 #RAAF P-8A Poseidon A47-010 #7CF9D4 was deployed on #OpARGOS, but they were never picked up using ADS-B flying any missions over the East China sea, only transits between bases. 🤔
Feb 21 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Some git that moderates the @flightradar24 subreddit censored easily accessible publicly available information. 🤦♂️
Before I explain to the #AusAirForce 🇦🇺 comms ppl, please appreciate that their P-8A Poseidon fleet broadcasts its own location to anyone who will listen, using ADS-B. That signal will geolocate them from orbit. On patrol, their locations are the least secret thing over the SCS.
This tweet, that has all the words in it you'd need to find it, gives you the tail numbers and ICAO Mode-S hexes of the whole #AusAirForce 🇦🇺 P-8A Poseidon fleet. You can follow them pretty much any day with the link that's included in the quoted tweet.
Here's a way you may not have looked at the data #ADSBexchange gives you.
Planes using ADS-B transmit their precise location (lat/lon/alt/speed/etc) but planes using Mode-S need to be geolocated using multilateration (MLAT). like TRIangulation, but with 4 data points (Multi) 🧵
Here is an image (and link) representing *only* planes being geolocated using MLAT. Meaning, 4 or more #ADSBexchange receivers have them in line-of-sight (LOS); 10 of them.
It's only a matter of time before the CP-140 Aurora deployments to Keflavik, that coincide with Russian Navy movements through the GIUK gap, get traction in the press.
They pretend it's not happening. We see them. 🤦♂️
Feb 15 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
🇺🇸 People stop me on the street all the time and ask me, Stef, how can you tell where in the United States there are too few #ADSBexchange receivers to geolocate aircraft that aren't broadcasting their precise location data using multilateration (#MLAT)?
Here's what you do:
filter by altitude, between 10,000-40,000 ft, that restricts the results to aircraft which are flying high enough that we should home four or more receivers are in line of sight, a requirement for #MLAT.
They flew right through the #ADIZ that the media get their bloomers in a bunch about when the Russians fly antiques through, and VIOLATED American and Canadian airspace, which the Russians never do, and the Chinese continue to do; did I get that right? What a bunch of bullsh!t.
Feb 1 • 4 tweets • 5 min read
"The operation involved (...) supporting and operating four F-35s, three CF-18s, four KC-135s, one CC-150, one E-3, and one CH-149."
🇨🇦 Here's the distribution of the Canadian-registered Top Aces Alpha Jet fleet. I took the superset of everything registered to them, worked back to 2022-09-01, identified everything that's flown in that time, and flagged those that haven't flown in a month+.
🇨🇦 CFB Cold Lake (4)
🇨🇦 CFB Bagotville (5)
🇨🇦 Halifax (1)
🇩🇪 Fliegerhorst Nordholz (2)
(+5 haven't flown in over a month)
The idea is, if they haven't flown in over a month, they may be going through some maintenance; or not, I can't tell. 🤷♂️
Jan 13 • 4 tweets • 4 min read
While this article is 5 years old, and likely out of date regarding the operations that are being carried out from Keflavik 🇮🇸, it makes it clear to me that the "rotational" deployments of large numbers of #USNavy P-8A Poseidon and #RCAF CP-140 Aurora aircraft are a #NATO mission
It's also clear that #RCAF and #USNavy operations out of NAS Keflavik 🇮🇸 and NAS Sigonella 🇮🇹 are related, it's basically the same mission, the only difference is #Keflavik surges when the Russian Navy is brining a submarine through the GIUK gap, making a very obvious tell for us
Jan 12 • 15 tweets • 18 min read
🇨🇦 Where is the #RCAF today?
🇨🇦 #RCAF CC-177 Globemaster III (4/5, 80% ✅)
‣ 177701 just got back from Haiti
‣ 177702 is somewhere on the other side of the planet
‣ 177703 is still in San Antonio 🇺🇸 (since August 🧑🔧)
‣ 177705 arrived in Bagotville yesterday