Share this page!

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Twitter logo
Jul 8 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
@IAPonomarenko story on the Ukrainian targeting of Russian depots, worth a read.
Here is a map from the story with some of the largest facilities that have been hit. Most in territories occupied before Feb 24, which would have been large and had time to be built up.
This campaign seems to be going hand in hand with an attempt to sever rail communications to the west,
Including some guerrila attacks.
Looks pretty methodical and thought out, will be a question of execution and whether they can locate the depots going forward (you can’t hide rail lines). Destroying depots and rail lines together will make it very hard for the Russians to move.
Some recent depots supposedly hit.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Phillips P. OBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Jul 10
Sunday update, a discussion of range/accuracy versus mass. There is a noticeable change in the last 2 weeks in the ranged war (which is the most important in this attritional phase) and that is that Ukraine is now showing the ability to hit back.
If you look at a map of FIRMS data (fires that can be picked up by satellite) there is a significant change since the beginning of June. Then, most of the fire was very close to the front line, and crucially mostly where the Russians were trying to advance.
Best to start with Donetsk Oblast, occupied by Russia for years, which has been a relatively secure base for their logistics and the major city of Donetsk is right on the border between Ukrainian and Russian controlled territory. Here is @War_Mapper purple/red Russian controlled Image
Read 15 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Jul 9
Worth adding this to the talk about attacking weapons depots. Ukraine also using its new range systems to go after Russian command and control. That’s definitely US doctrine, and if they can seriously degrade both Russian supply and command in the Kherson area, watch out.
Ukrainians being very open telling civilians to get out of the Kherson area.
Worth adding this here, more warnings to Ukrainian civilians about imminent action in both the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Jul 8
Putin is suffering from the failure to understand that Russia is not the great power he thought it was. With his whole army tied down in Ukraine, Kazakhstan is using the opportunity to pull away. Putin’s attempts to maintain influence are likely backfiring.
Xi Jinping’s ducking out of visiting Putin is also an interesting sign. China and India seem happy to take advantage of Russian weakness, but they don’t want to get too close. thetimes.co.uk/article/end-of…
We are seeing the huge problem of basing great power status solely on nuclear weapons. If all you can do is threaten to blow up the world to get your way, you are a well armed weak power. The USA or China never have to threaten nuclear attack to have others cooperate with them.
Read 5 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Jul 5
Btw, I assume Johnson stays unless the Conservative Party rules are changed or he simply can’t find people to serve in his cabinet (and by people I mean anyone). If the rules don’t change and he has a cabinet, bet he stays for longer than we think.
Real question tonight is whether people will accept the open cabinet posts I suppose. And whether more open up.
No 10 trying to fill the posts.
Read 18 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Jul 3
Excellent
How many states does a presidential ticket of Michelle Obama for President and Adam Kinzinger for VP end up winning?
People, you do understand what a hypothetical question is, right?
Read 4 tweets
Phillips P. OBrien Profile picture
Jul 3
It has now been 76 days since the Russians launched the Battle of the Dohnbas. This would make it one of the longest major battles in the 20th and 21st centuries. Many times longer than Kursk,e Bagration Normandy, Bulge, etc. Its much closer to WWI (Somme, Passchendale, Verdun)
And what has happened in the 2.5 months so far. Best to start with this map. Basically the Russians have dialled back enormously on their expectations (and frankly the expectations of others) that they would take a big chunk of Ukrainian territory.
Instead after 11 weeks of combat, major losses and command changes, desperate attempts to raise forces and concentrating their firepower in a very small area, the Russians have compelled to Ukrainians to withdraw from Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.
Read 19 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(