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Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
@SimonWDC
Jul 8, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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Okay, here it is - our monthly #jobsday thread:

34m jobs - 16 yrs Clinton Obama
9m jobs - 17 months Biden
1.9m jobs - 16 years 2 Bushes Trump

4.5 times more Biden jobs in 17 months than last 3 GOP Presidents combined over 16 years. 1/
Since 1989 45m net new jobs have been created in the United States.

43m - 96% - have been created under Democratic Presidents.

Shout this one from the rooftops people! 2/
Wages are continuing to grow at a very rapid rate. 7% for prime age workers. 3/
We continue to see record levels of new businesses being created. Incredible sign of health, vitality of US economy. 4/
Another way to understand just how strong and vital the Biden economy has been is to look at jobs created per month.

Biden is 50x last 3 GOP Presidents, and note GOP = only 9,700 jobs a month over 16 years. Astonishing level of repeated GOP failure. 5/
Gas prices are coming down now, and as you can see from this chart, 2/3rds of the increase in gas prices came after Putin invaded Ukraine.

This was never on Biden and GOP attacks on him work to bolster Putin, once again. 6/

Growth has been much much stronger under Dem Presidents over many decades now. 7/
The last 3 GOP Presidents brought recessions and spiraling deficits. Trump saw the deficit grow more than any peacetime President in modern times.

Joe Biden is the third straight Dem President to get the deficit down. Clinton got us to surplus. 8/
So, to sum:

4 times as many Biden jobs as last 3 GOP Presidents COMBINED

96% of all jobs created since 1989 have come under Dem Presidents

Biden is third straight Dem to dramatically reduce huge GOP deficits, 3 straight to bring robust growth after GOP recession

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More from @SimonWDC

Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Nov 21
OMG @YouTube my video about the 2024 election was just taken down because I criticized Robert Kennedy for his anti-vaxx views and the impact they would have if implemented. You have to be kidding me.
For reference:

I was accused of spreading medical misinformation and required to take an on-line course, which I did.
Read 4 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Nov 5
Heading into Election night, Trump:
- is not leading in the battleground early vote
- is not leading in the polls or w/most forecasters
- did not raise more money, have more volunteers, or have anywhere as big crowds as Harris

There is no data right now suggesting he's winning
9 of 10 forecasters went into E-D with Harris now ahead:

The more rigorous @washingtonpost battleground averages have Harris winning the election today.

The right may have invented data, maps, Polymarket voodoo showing Trump leading but in the real world Harris has outperformed him and is winning. Image
Read 4 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Nov 5
Some Election Day thoughts:
- Ds been overperforming since Dobbs, likely to do so again today. Dobbs before/after moment in US politics.
- Early vote, polling got better for Harris this week. Ds enter E-D in stronger battleground EV position than 2020. Encouraging sign. 1/
- The money, sweat and power of Dem grassroots needs far more attention. Dems now have a structural hard dollar advantage up/down the ticket, giving us bigger, more muscular campaigns w/vastly more volunteers.

Released a video on this yesterday 👇2/
hopiumchronicles.com/p/2-days-to-go…
VP @KamalaHarris has just turned in one of the greatest performances by an American politician in modern history. So many things could have tripped her up. None of them did. Extraordinary candidate, extraordinary campaign. She will be a great President for all of us. 3/
Read 13 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Nov 4
Via TargetEarly, it is now official - Dems head into E-Day in a stronger position in the battleground early vote than 2020. More D post-Dobbs overperformance.

Rs big campaign to make gains in the early vote has failed, and their EV "memos" are just pure bullshit. Image
Cannot overstate how delusional and full of lying and fuckery Trump/right spin has been:
- flooding the zone with red wave polls
- outright lies about the early vote
- memory holing 2 1/2 years of GOP poll underperformance incl Trump
- Polymarket Voodoo!
I go deeper into latest polling/early vote data below.

The bottom line - the election is clearly breaking towards us now. Harris just had best week of polling. Early vote is good, keeps getting better. Red wave polls sign of Trumpian desperation.

Read 6 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Oct 26
Early vote notes, via TargetEarly:
- Ds running much better in battleground than natl early vote (=better campaign)
- Ds running even w/Rs in battleground vs. 2020
- Ds running ahead of 2020 in GA/MI/NE-2/WI
- Ds closing gap in AZ/NC/NV/PA
Rs not winning battleground early vote
And a general reminder that Rs would not be flooding the zone with dozens of polls and creating betting market voodoo if they believed they were winning the election and everything was fine. You only cheat when you are losing.
When I say AZ/NC/NV/PA are closing the gap I mean against how we are performed there vs 2020. While we have a lead in the raw vote in PA, we are not performing there as well as we did in 2020. All of this data is vs. 2020.

Bottom line - we had a good week all.
Read 5 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Oct 21
Red wave 2024 update:
- 70+ polls in the averages, 31 right-aligned groups have released polls since August
- Polymarket, Elon 2024 escalations
- Late last week they worked the natl polling average, moved it down, started spinning early vote hard 👇 1/
hopiumchronicles.com/p/vp-harris-an…
Part of their new efforts to drive the natl polling average down is addition of a TIPP daily tracking poll. Predictably, and perhaps comically, it showed the race - all of a sudden! - breaking to Trump after 6 weeks of a remarkably stable race and a bad media week for Trump 2/
Last Wed I did a polling roundup. Polling continued to be remarkably stable. 538 natl average actually ticked up for us that week. We were +4 and stable in Econ/YouGov, +5 in Marist, +4 in Morning Consult, NYT, +3 CBS, ABC. Steady as she goes. 3/
hopiumchronicles.com/p/2-new-polls-…
Read 15 tweets

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