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Jul 8 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Okay, here it is - our monthly #jobsday thread:

34m jobs - 16 yrs Clinton Obama
9m jobs - 17 months Biden
1.9m jobs - 16 years 2 Bushes Trump

4.5 times more Biden jobs in 17 months than last 3 GOP Presidents combined over 16 years. 1/
Since 1989 45m net new jobs have been created in the United States.

43m - 96% - have been created under Democratic Presidents.

Shout this one from the rooftops people! 2/
Wages are continuing to grow at a very rapid rate. 7% for prime age workers. 3/
We continue to see record levels of new businesses being created. Incredible sign of health, vitality of US economy. 4/
Another way to understand just how strong and vital the Biden economy has been is to look at jobs created per month.

Biden is 50x last 3 GOP Presidents, and note GOP = only 9,700 jobs a month over 16 years. Astonishing level of repeated GOP failure. 5/
Gas prices are coming down now, and as you can see from this chart, 2/3rds of the increase in gas prices came after Putin invaded Ukraine.

This was never on Biden and GOP attacks on him work to bolster Putin, once again. 6/

Growth has been much much stronger under Dem Presidents over many decades now. 7/
The last 3 GOP Presidents brought recessions and spiraling deficits. Trump saw the deficit grow more than any peacetime President in modern times.

Joe Biden is the third straight Dem President to get the deficit down. Clinton got us to surplus. 8/
So, to sum:

4 times as many Biden jobs as last 3 GOP Presidents COMBINED

96% of all jobs created since 1989 have come under Dem Presidents

Biden is third straight Dem to dramatically reduce huge GOP deficits, 3 straight to bring robust growth after GOP recession

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More from @SimonWDC

Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Jul 8
New @NavigatorSurvey polling finds a 24 pt drop in GOP favorability with independents, and 10 pts overall.

This is a very significant shift in a short period of time, and more confirming data that the natl landscape is becoming far better for Dems. 1/
@NavigatorSurvey 72% of Democrats more likely to vote now. Big number! Other polls now have Dem vote intensity higher than Rs.

This is not a typical midterm. The anti-MAGA majority which voted in record numbers in the last two elections is getting ready to do it again this time. 2/
Lots of data now showing a new, bluer 2022 election.

I go over some of that data in a new analysis, below.

In 9 polls of the Congressional Generic since Row Dems hold a 1.7 pt lead, a shift of 4-5 pts for Ds. It's a big deal. 3/

ndn.org/analysis-dems-…
Read 9 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Jul 6
On @FiveThirtyEight there are 10 polls of the Congressional Generic taken since Roe ended.

In these 10 polls Dems lead 44.9 to 43.9, +1 Dem. That's a 3-4 pt swing in the last few weeks. 1/
Wow.
Last Poll New Poll D Shift
NPR/Marist 44-47 48-41 +10
Econ/YouGov 40-45 43-40 +8
Monmouth 43-50 46-48 +5
Yahoo/YouGov 43-39 45-38 +3
Politico/MC 42-42 45-42 +3
2/
In a new piece I do a deep dive on this new data and argue:

- We are now in a competitive not a wave election.

- Dems are now favored to keep the Senate.

- Natl landscape likely to get worse for MAGA/GOP.

- Dems need to go on offense. 3/

ndn.org/analysis-dems-…
Read 6 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Jul 5
I agree with @JoeNBC. Conventional wisdom political analysis is out of synch with last several weeks of more positive Dem polling.

A short thread: 1/
Many political commentators have been overly discounting how ugly MAGA/GOP offering has become, has many people voted against it twice and would be unlikely to do so this time. 2/

Cong Generic's taken since Roe ended have been net positive for Dems.

Senate polling strong for Dems across the board, huge R underperformance in PA, WI.

Last week in a NE special Dem House candidate outperformed Trump by 4-5 pts. 3/

Read 5 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Jun 28
We now have 3 Congressional Generics since Roe ended:

NPR/Marist 48 Dem 41 R +7
Morning Consult 45 Dem 42 R +3
Yahoo/YouGov 45 Dem 38 R +7
and in this poll
"Pro-choice Dem" vs "Pro-life R" is 47-32.

It's a new election.

news.yahoo.com/poll-confidenc…
And a reminder that the Senate was already leaning towards the Democrats before the Court ended Roe:

In a NE House special election last night the Dem candidate is going to lose by 6 pts or so in a +11 Trump district.

One race but more data suggesting 2022 is now a very competitive election. All talk of a red wave needs to end.
Read 4 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Jun 26
This is important data. Ending Roe is a gamechanger for the 2022 election. It's waking up the Democratic coalition, a coalition which gave the Ds a 6.5 pt margin in the last 2 elections, and voted in record numbers. There is a very strong anti-MAGA majority in America. 1/
In new polls of Hispanic voters in AZ, NV, PA we found similar numbers - more likely to vote Dem in the 40s, over 50% with younger Hispanics and women.

As I've been writing, prior to Roe ending the election looked more competitive than the chatter held.

With new polls in PA and WI showing Rs trailing in GOP held seats, the Senate was already more likely to stay in Dem hands. More 👇 3/

Read 10 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Jun 25
Have come to believe that the SCOTUS intervention in the 2000 election was a truly seminal event.

It taught a rising generation of Republicans they could gain power through means other than winning an election.

Roberts, Kavanaugh, Coney Barrett all worked for the Bush campaign.
The Bush v Gore decision was fundamentally illiberal.

The Court stopped the counting of votes that would have almost certainly THAT AFTERNOON given the election to Gore.

It stopped the counting of votes and gave the election to their candidate.

cnn.com/2020/10/17/pol…
Feel like it would be appropriate for the Judiciary Committee to hold a hearing now and call the Justices who appear to have lied UNDER OATH about their stand on Roe. Let them explain themselves.

Kind of thing Committees do @SenatorDurbin.

Read 4 tweets

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