Thread by @witte_sergei

Thread: The Russo-Japanese War

In 1904, Russia and Japan fought a war over Korea and China. This was a large conflict that threatened to shape the future of east Asia for centuries - but curiously, it was never organically resolved. Let's take a look at this war together. (1)

We'll begin with the Russian decisions that led to war, which begin with the emergence of a critical technology: railroads. Rail was revolutionary because it allowed for the integration and exploitation of continental interiors and land based territories. (2)

The biggest beneficiaries of rail were always going to be continental scale states with far flung but resource rich territories. Two states in particular fit the bill: the USA and Russia. Rail finally gave Russia a way to economically exploit its vast territories in Asia. (3)

Rail expansion in Russia was spearheaded by Finance Minister Sergei Witte - the original Big Serge! His crowning achievement in this sphere was the Trans Siberian Railroad, which finally gave Russia an efficient transit link to the far east of their empire. (4)

Witte also saw rail as a way to get access to the Chinese market. In 1900, Qing China had the 2nd largest economy in the world, and Witte coveted economic linkages there. He even negotiated a deal with the Qing to run part of the rail line through Manchuria. (5)

All of this was cozy and clean - however, matters were complicated by military contingencies. While Witte pursued economic goals, the Russian foreign affairs ministry was worried about protecting the Russian far east by procuring strategic locations and bases. (6)

Enter Japan.

Japan completed a breakneck modernization and militarization program under the Meiji Emperor, and in 1895 it was time for Japan to announce itself. They absolutely crushed Qing China in a war that year. The Japanese Empire had arrived. (7)

Having beaten China, Japan took as its prizes the Korean peninsula, Formosa (modern Taiwan), and the Liadong Peninsula - home of the strategically valuable Port Arthur. These were rich spoils - but Japan's party was soon spoiled by the pesky Europeans. (8)

The imperial powers of Europe were highly interested in the fate of China, and were not enthused at the idea that Japan was getting involved. A coalition of European powers imposed upon Japan an altered deal wherein Japan only got to keep Formosa. (9)

This was deeply insulting to the Japanese, who felt they had been robbed of territories that were fairly won in war. The insult became even more unbearable in 1897, when Russia took Port Arthur for itself and based their Pacific Fleet there. (10)

Matters came to a head in 1900, with the famous Boxer Rebellion in China. This was a violent, anti-European uprising, which provoked a coalition of British, French, Russia, German, and even American troops to deploy to China to protect westerners in Beijing. (11)

The problem for Japan was that, after the Boxer Rebellion was over, the Russian troops didn't leave. Instead, 100,000 Russians were based in Manchuria. Japan felt that it had been cheated out of Korea and was now going to be boxed out of Manchuria as well. (12)

They demanded that Russia withdraw from Manchuria. Had they done so, war would probably have been averted. Unfortunately, Tsar Nicholas II was getting rather bad advice from military advisors who told him the Japanese could not fight. Witte, who advocate peace, was ignored. (13)

Furthermore, Tsar Nicholas was being egged on by his cousin, Kaiser Wilhelm, who badly wanted Russia to be diverted towards Asia. He talked up a fear of the "yellow menace" and wrote letters encouraging Nicholas to fight the "Asiatics". (14)

The general assumption was that Japan simply could not match a European military. The Tsar at one point remarked, "it is a barbarous country." The idea of a war with Japan was viewed rather flippantly.

This made Japan's surprise attack on February 8, 1904, a huge surprise. (15)

The surprise attack on Port Arthur failed to destroy the Russian forces there, but Japan was able to put the fortress under siege - blocking the exits and hauling heavy artillery onto nearby hills to pound the fortifications. More important still was the shock and momentum. (16)

In early May, the Japanese army defeated a Russian advance guard at the Yalu River, which opened the way for a full scale invasion of Manchuria. Russia was now in a very difficult strategic position. (17)

Port Arthur was under siege, but Japan's army in Manchuria blocked the rail lines and essentially cut off Russia's pacific coast from reinforcement or rescue. To save Port Arthur, Russia needed to dislodge Japan from Manchuria. (18)

The attempt to do so led to the colossal Battle of Mukden - a brutal, bloody slog that led to Russian defeat and nearly 88,000 Russian casualties. The setback at Mukden essentially ended any hopes of rescuing Port Arthur via the land approach. (19)

The only option left was to go by sea. Russia's Baltic Fleet was dispatched on a globe spanning journey. They needed to sail thousands of miles, around the whole of Europe and Asia, before engaging the Japanese Navy and rescuing the Russian Far East. (20)

As if the trip were not long enough, a skittish Russian captain opened fire on a British fishing ship in the North Sea - fantastically imagining that it was a Japanese destroyer. An irate London closed the Suez Canal to the Russians, forcing them to go around Africa as well. (21)

Port Arthur surrendered in December, 1904 - well before the Baltic Fleet arrived. But Russia was determined to score a victory and make the trip worthwhile. Instead, after an 18,000 mile voyage, the Russian squadron was smashed at Tsushima Strait. (22)

Japan achieved the dream of naval warfare: a scenario known as "crossing the T." The Japanese fleet was able to come perpendicular to the Russian squadron, allowing all the Japanese guns to open fire at once before the Russians could deploy into formation. (23)

Six of Russia's most modern battleships went to the bottom. The Baltic Fleet was smashed, Port Arthur captured, and the Russian army was stonewalled in Manchuria. Upstart Japan had defeated Russia on land and sea. (24)

There were other, even more pressing problems for Russia. In January, 1905, widespread labor strikes began to spread throughout Petersburg. When police killed protestors on January 22 - infamous "Bloody Sunday" - Russia exploded into open civil unrest and revolution. (25)

The Revolution of 1905 had huge geopolitical consequences. In fact, it occurred just as the war was on the verge of swinging in Russia's favor. Japan had won all the battles, but they were on the verge of bankruptcy and their forces were badly chewed up. (26)

Russia had a freshly raised army due to deploy to the east which in all likelihood would have swung the war back in their favor. Instead, these troops were needed to quell civil unrest, and Nicholas was forced to sue for peace. (27)

To negotiate a deal, he brought back Sergei Witte - whom he had previously ignored when war was on the table. The negotiations were mediated by Theodore Roosevelt, who won a Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts. (28)

The Treaty of Portsmouth recognized Japanese influence in Korea, but spared Russia having to pay reparations. Manchuria was given back to Qing China. Russia actually did very well from these negotiations, considering the troubled domestic situation. (29)

Importantly, however, this was a war that was not satisfactorily concluded. Russia was unable to fight the war to the finish due to civil unrest, and Japan felt they'd been cheated again by missing out on Manchuria and a Russian indemnity. (30)

This is why the friction zone between these powers remained troubled for decades. Japan would again invade Manchuria in 1931, and hold it the final destruction of their empire in 1945 at the hands of the Americans. (31)

The true conclusion of the Russo-Japanese war wasn't in 1905, but in August, 1945, when the Red Army invaded Japanese Manchuria, and the Bear at last devoured the Rising Sun. (32)