Thread by @DrewDavenportFF

I continue to see a runaway narrative about the Alvin Kamara case everywhere I turn, so even though nothing has happened in the case I think it's time to make sure everyone is updated.

Let's do an #FFLegalUpdate for Alvin Kamara and his 2022 fantasy football prospects.

1/

What I've been seeing in articles and on twitter is the same couple of things:

- "with Kamara set to miss time"
- "with Kamara facing a 6-game suspension"
- "since Kamara may be suspended"

None of these is particularly accurate.

#FFLegalUpdate
2/

Unfortunately, that narrative caught fire after a recent article from a prominent NFL voice in the media. But the article itself was only a recitation of things that COULD happen if Kamara is convicted.

The suspension for violent crimes is 6 games. That part is correct.

3/

There are two problems with thinking that a suspension is a foregone conclusion:

1 - We don't know if he will be convicted.

2 - The criminal case will most likely need to play out before the league acts.

#FFLegalUpdate

4/

As to the first issue - we don't know if he will be convicted.

Does the case look bad right now? From what we know it does. But as a defense attorney I know that the police report and video may not match, and that there is a lot we don't know.

5/

If you want to hear a Prosecutor (Jordan) and a defense attorney (me) discuss the case in more detail, you can always go here and cue it up to 64 mins in...

6/
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/auc…

But the bottom line is that all we know about the video of this incident is what has been leaked or is in the report. Accepting 2nd and 3rd-hand accounts of a video is a bad idea. I'm not saying those reports are wrong, but let's give those the proper weight.

7/

Now the second point - this case will most likely need to play out before the league acts - is the most important one and why we need to pump the brakes on the suspension talk.

One major caveat: I say "most likely" for a reason. I say that because if that video leaks...

8/

...before or during the season all bets are off as to what the league will do.

However, people are acting as though (sans video) this case is going to be decided before the season starts. I don't see that happening.

#FFLegalUpdate
9/

I checked the docket to make sure, but NOTHING has happened since the case was continued back in April. I said it back then but I'll say it again: the case did not move forward one iota when it was continued. Literally nothing happened. Why does this matter?

10/

It matters because when the parties reconvene on the next court date, 8/1 at 830 am, they will still be in pretrial negotiations.

The next question I get is: Well can't the case be settled? Yes. But by August 1st? Unlikely.

Here's why...

11/

Both sides in this case are somewhat limited in what they can do in advance of a trial.

The State has to push for a conviction with such gnarly facts and injuries alleged.

The Defendant has too much at stake to walk in and plead to something that will crush him.

12/

So the likely outcome is that this case gets set for trial. Since a simple continuance of a pretrial was almost 4 months, I would imagine setting the case for trial would, at minimum, have the case on the docket for late October or even November.

13/

The defense attorneys aren't dumb. He's hired really good counsel. They will set it for trial absent a no-brainer plea offer and then try to continue it out past the end of the season.

I don't think 2022 is in serious jeopardy for Kamara (subject to my earlier caveat).

14/

I do think this becomes a 2023 issue for dynasty managers, but for 2022 redraft I don't think the suspension will hit this year.

Now, I also get asked - "what would a plea deal look like here?"

That's a great question. He has two pending charges.

15/

Charge 1 - Conspiracy to Commit Battery (Misdemeanor)

Charge 2 - Battery Resulting in Substantial Physical Harm (Felony)

The problem for Kamara is that the felony has mandatory prison time (2 years) if convicted.

#FFLegalUpdate
16/

So for him to want to accept a deal it would most likely have to be a non-mandatory charge, plus it would ideally have to be a misdemeanor & not a felony.

I'm just speculating, but you can see how it would be difficult for the State to offer that at the August date.

17/

Most likely these two sides will have a stalemate right up to the brink of a trial and we will see if one side blinks.

Just remember - fights like these are messy. We don't know everything. But what we do know is that Kamara has an interest in seeing this pushed past 2022.

18/

I think he will be successful in doing that and has a strong chance to play all of 2022.

Thanks for reading this #FFLegalUpdate. If it helped you please RT the first tweet and get the word out.

If not, thanks for your support and time. Have a great weekend!

19/fin