Sunday update, a discussion of range/accuracy versus mass. There is a noticeable change in the last 2 weeks in the ranged war (which is the most important in this attritional phase) and that is that Ukraine is now showing the ability to hit back.
If you look at a map of FIRMS data (fires that can be picked up by satellite) there is a significant change since the beginning of June. Then, most of the fire was very close to the front line, and crucially mostly where the Russians were trying to advance.
Best to start with Donetsk Oblast, occupied by Russia for years, which has been a relatively secure base for their logistics and the major city of Donetsk is right on the border between Ukrainian and Russian controlled territory. Here is @War_Mapper purple/red Russian controlled
If you look at the FIRMS map of Donetsk oblast for the week ending June 10, you will see only small fire around Donetsk (a Russian held city). Compare it to the last week, regular fires throughout the oblast.
However those fires have a pattern, Heavy, mass firepower just to the northwest of Donetsk city, much of which would be Russian ranged firepower on Ukrainian front line post) and less mass, but regular fires throughout the oblast behind Russian lines. Ukrainian ranged fire here
For instance the town of Shakhtarsk, basically safe, behind the lines for Russian forces in June, now the seen of heavy fires. Which matches with reports of Russian depots, which had been built up in the supposedly safe area, now being hit by Ukr HIMARS.
Matches up to other claims of the Ukr now trying to systematically destroy Russian depots throughout the area that use to be safe and are now vulnerable. this taken from @IAPonomarenko story in @KyivIndependent
The situation in Kherson oblast is similar. In early June overwhelmingly Russian fire on Ukrainian front line (southeast of Mykolaiv) positions. Now thats still there, but also Ukr fire behind Russian lines (in and around Kherson city). Same pattern, Mass Russian tactical fire...
compared to more selective Ukr fire. Quite apparent when you look more closely at Kherson city this week. Two large areas of concentrated fire. The airport and the transport (rail/road) over the Dnipro. The exact kind of strategic targets Ukr should be concentrating on.
matches up with Ukr claims that they are about to make an effort in the Kherson area. They are attacking command and control, transport, depots, etc, all the smart strategic targets.
Overall, it should be noticed that there is now more fire behind Russian lines almost everywhere, Take a look at this great map by @DefMon3
All of this adds up to the fact that Ukraine now has the ability to fire back effectively on the Russians. They will never match Russian mass, but they are showing signs of a possible superiority in range and accuracy, which should matter more going forward.
Should add ease and efficiency of use to range and accuracy for Ukraine. Better systems all around. It’s a question now of getting more of them to the Ukrainians.
Still some hours to go in the day, but looks like Russian ranged fire has been dialled back enormously. Here is the Fire Map for so far today in the Donbas pocket, and for all of yesterday (so not fully comparative). And most fire seems to be behind Russian lines.
Same for Kherson front. Indeed the only registered fires seem to be behind Russian lines near Kherson city.
Is this normal for Russian ranged fire to be almost non existent by 3pm in Ukraine? If not, wonder whats happening. Operational pause or ammunition shortage the most likely explanations.
Its very easy to check yourself, btw. And realize that not every red mark is a sign of combat, they could also be field fires, old fires still burning, etc. They just signify where FIRMS is picking up evidence of fire. firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#d:24hrs;@…
Someone said/asked if it might be rainy. Looks to be some rain in the Donbas but not a drop on the Kherson front--cant think it would stop the registering of heavy modern artillery.
To show you an example of FIRMS picking up fires not having to do with artillery, here is the lovely city of Bologna, Italy right now. More fires than Kherson Oblast (which reveals more of what's happening in Kherson Oblast than it does in Bologna).
End of the day update. Really low fire in the Donbas compared to the last few days. We have now passed 19 of the 24 hours of the day there and there is more indicated fire behind Russian lines than forward. Compared to two days ago, difference is signficant.
has been a little more fire around Kherson since a few hours ago, but still seems more behind Russian lines than Ukrainian lines, and overall down alot from two days ago.
Just one day, so will need monitoring going forward. But looks like a lower amount of ranged fire coming from Russia today than anytime for four weeks. Maybe the Russians are taking the pause or maybe they are struggling with artillery logistics.

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More from @PhillipsPOBrien

Jul 12
You might have seen this Russian ammunition dump be blown up last night by the Ukrainians, it reveals more than any other attack Ive seen about the state of the logistics war and the real problems the Russians face. We need to start with its location.
Here is a map of the Ukrainian Railway network overall, then a zeroed in map on exactly where the depot was located. Its the black dot on the upper of the two blue lines. ImageImage
The two blue lines, btw, are the only two major rail lines into the Kherson front for the Russians, they are absolutely vital to the supply of their troops, and what this attack is showing is that they are in real trouble.
Read 14 tweets
Jul 11
Cummings seems upset, but all I did was point out that that in March 1, when the Russian Army was knee deep into war crimes in Ukraine, he called for Ukraine to be treated like Hungary in 1956, which was left to be brutalised by the USSR
Here’s the tweet. As his position was entirely in opposition to that of the U.K. government, it’s necessary that Sunak state his Ukraine policy clearly and whether Cummings will be involved in government again.
Clearly involving Cummings could lead to a seismic shift in the UK’s stance, and that needs to be understood. Don’t know why he’s so defensive.
Read 7 tweets
Jul 11
Surprised this isn’t being talked about more in the press and conservatives party. With all the talk of Dominic Cummings backing Rishi Sunak, it calls into question one of the few claims of success of this government, it’s support of Ukraine. metro.co.uk/2022/07/11/ris…
Cummings has been a Putin apologist when it comes to explaining the reasons for the war as this @NickCohen4 piece describes. amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Cummings has already called for the US to treat Ukraine today like Hungary was treated in 1956. In other words abandoned to the USSR, which was allowed to crush a Hungarian freedom movement.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 11
This story in @thetimes deserves a mention. It represents not only a confirmation of a complete change in the tone of Ukrainian government over the last few weeks, it shows why the war of the last few months might not have evolved like many think. thetimes.co.uk/article/ukrain…
The most important point is that the Ukrainian defence minister @oleksiireznikov isn making it very clear that the Ukrainians actually have many 100,000s of soldiers that they can deploy into the fight than the Russians. Says a million here... ImageImage
that might be a little optimistic, but when you consider Ukraine did have a standing force of 80k before the war, with 400k reserve, has had conscription and the return of overseas Ukrainians, a force of more than half a million is plausible even after the losses Ukr has had.
Read 8 tweets
Jul 9
Worth adding this to the talk about attacking weapons depots. Ukraine also using its new range systems to go after Russian command and control. That’s definitely US doctrine, and if they can seriously degrade both Russian supply and command in the Kherson area, watch out.
Ukrainians being very open telling civilians to get out of the Kherson area.
Worth adding this here, more warnings to Ukrainian civilians about imminent action in both the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions
Read 4 tweets
Jul 8
Putin is suffering from the failure to understand that Russia is not the great power he thought it was. With his whole army tied down in Ukraine, Kazakhstan is using the opportunity to pull away. Putin’s attempts to maintain influence are likely backfiring.
Xi Jinping’s ducking out of visiting Putin is also an interesting sign. China and India seem happy to take advantage of Russian weakness, but they don’t want to get too close. thetimes.co.uk/article/end-of…
We are seeing the huge problem of basing great power status solely on nuclear weapons. If all you can do is threaten to blow up the world to get your way, you are a well armed weak power. The USA or China never have to threaten nuclear attack to have others cooperate with them.
Read 5 tweets

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