Ukrainian GMLRS strikes are sure working down the Russian target array checklist👇

And the Russian military is complaining neither S-300 nor S-400 anti-missile radars are even seeing the inbound GMLRS strike.

1/3
There are a lot of operational level implications in that because if S-300 & S-400 SAM's are defenseless against GMLRS.

Then Ukraine will kill them within 80km of the front and give UAF planes a long range SAM-free airspace over Russian troops.
2/3
In so many words, low level Ukrainian close air support can be a thing.

And the transfer of A-10's to Ukraine with 1990's era IIR Maverick missiles could be very militarily effective?🤔

3/3

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More from @TrentTelenko

Jul 9
There has been a lot of talk about dropping the Kerch Straits bridge including a proposal by former SACEUR Breedlove to drop the Kerch Strait bridge with Block 1D Harpoons.

This will not cut off Russian rail links to Crimea, even if such missiles

1/
thetimes.co.uk/article/cut-of…
...were fully successful in knocking out the bridge.

There is also a Russian underground railway tunnel that goes with the bridge over the Kerch Straits.

2/
See:
This is a photo clip from the youtube link to give the Twitter audience an idea of this railway tunnel's size.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Jul 8
@CehMojmir >>"Systemic shock*?! Please, stop making up terms as you go along,

Definition:

"A systemic shock is a shock to any system that perturbs a system enough to drive it out of equilibrium. [1] Systemic shocks occur in a wide range of fields,

1/
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systemic_…
@CehMojmir ... ranging from medicine (see shock), ecology, economics to engineering. Designers of systems usually desire their systems to be able to withstand or recover from foreseeable system shocks; therefore, many systems are designed with mechanisms in place to restore an...

2/
@CehMojmir ... an equilibrium state."

Before you go around making statements which destroy yourself like that, an internet search on the term of art is in order.

4/
Read 7 tweets
Jul 8
This bridge cut is part and parcel Ukraine's anti-artillery depot logistical attacks. Ukraine is executing a "systemic shock" attack strategy by trying to first remove the biggest depots.🧵👇

Then hammering the railway distribution system as it is at peak stress trying to
1/
... replace lost shell tonnage across the occupied Ukrainian rail system.

If a lot of shell tonnage is on trains suddenly caught between bridge & rail cuts.

They are sitting duck targets for follow up GMLRS destruction.

(Maps H/T @Nrg8000)
2/ ImageImageImage
And if the Russians sent railway troops to fix all the bridges & rail cuts before sending the ammo trains.

Those troops will be targeted by GMLRS while doing repairs & Russian troops run low of Arty ammo.

"Systemic shock" is a logistical heart attack.
(H/T @KenGriffeySr1)

3/ Image
Read 5 tweets
Jul 7
@AdmiralWarspite @CovertShores @KaptainLOMA @oryxspioenkop @UAWeapons @DaveGOwen @Saturnax1 @samlagrone @CorporalFrisk @VpValk @CavasShips Don't be to sure of that.

Historically the US Army under reports the actual range of it's missiles by up to 20%.

Newer missiles out range older ones for reasons of solid rocket fuel chemistry.

That is, stated missile range is that for an about to time expire missile.
1/
@AdmiralWarspite @CovertShores @KaptainLOMA @oryxspioenkop @UAWeapons @DaveGOwen @Saturnax1 @samlagrone @CorporalFrisk @VpValk @CavasShips The classic Cold War example of this was when the TOW missile was given an extra 750 meters of guidance wire in the late 1970's/early 1980's and this wasn't admitted to until near the end of the Cold War.

2/
@AdmiralWarspite @CovertShores @KaptainLOMA @oryxspioenkop @UAWeapons @DaveGOwen @Saturnax1 @samlagrone @CorporalFrisk @VpValk @CavasShips The US Army was only admitting to a 70 km range for the GMLRS until Ukraine started using them at 85 km range against Russia.

That is the same 20% historical under reporting we saw with the TOW missile.

3/
Read 7 tweets
Jul 7
This is a mostly correct statement.

Five more GMLRS launchers have entered Ukrainian service recently, plus there are 42 NATO Krab, Caesar & Pzh-2000 155mm/L52 guns.

The issue for Ukraine is a extremely short of 152mm shells for it's 600 odd guns of that caliber👇
1/
One hundred sixty-ish (~160) US & NATO 155mm guns and nine HIMARS/M270 launchers do not make up for the lost firepower of 700 Ukrainian 152mm guns without ammunition.

Ukraine was on the wrong end of a 45 to 1 Russian to Ukrainian shell ratio in the Lysychansk retreat.

2/
Russia in Donbas is engaged in a form of civil engineering with artillery shells.

It saves it's very small numbers of trained infantry from Ukrainian urban fighting by removing that terrain with artillery shells.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Jul 6
I haven't talked truck logistics in a while. This thread 🧵will revisit truck logistics of the Russo-Ukrainian War.

1. What we thought we knew.
2. The logistical truth on the ground.
3. And how Ukraine's new HIMARS/GMLRS weapons are kicking over the logistical table.

1/
What we thought we knew came from the outstanding November 2021 piece by Alex Vershinn titled:

"FEEDING THE BEAR: A CLOSER LOOK AT RUSSIAN ARMY LOGISTICS AND THE FAIT ACCOMPLI"

2/
warontherocks.com/2021/11/feedin…
The passage I've clipped here was the heart of the November 2021 advanced Western understanding of Russian logistics.

The problem with the passage below is everything Alex Vershinn stated as a 'beer math' model of Russian truck logistics is horribly wrong.

3/
Read 21 tweets

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