The arrival of HIMARS in Ukraine seems to be causing a real outbreak of despondency among Russian commentators on Telegram. This one is from commentator Dmitryev, who has around 100K followers. @mdmitri91 @RALee85 t.me/russ_orientali…
Translation: What do the first weeks of HIMARS use in Ukraine tell us? That it will not be possible to get out of the war while saving face. There were options to do so, but back then - in March, April, May. /1
Like taking Donetsk [and] Luhansk [regions] and the south and establishing a foothold for a few years, until a new war. To use these years for creation of new military structures. But no, such an opportunity will not be given. /2
Missiles will fly all the way through the line of demarcation, to the opposite side as well. Ukraine will become an artillery range and will be destroyed during the years of confrontation, the western part of Russia is also under attack. /3
There is no power to push the front to the west, even if they [the Russians] drive a million mobilised people there. /4
In Donbass, the Russian Armed Forces managed to create a local offensive advantage and the Russian command assumed that it would now be possible to slowly push the border westwards from city to city, but now the AFU has an antidote - they are smashing ammunition depots. /5
I am trying to understand what can stop this negative scenario developing - when Ukraine becomes a field of missile war and Russia gets bogged down in losses and subsequent socio-economic problems - and I can't think of anything. /6
To be honest, I don't see a military solution. The only thing that can reduce its intensity is some kind of global crisis, with crises in each specific country, which will push the causes of the war, very abstract, into the background. /end
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