Topic of my 2020 @Traders4ACause talk! I 🤔 ⬇️ my stress would ⬇️ my pnl. Paradoxically, stress-free trading ⬆️ my pnl bc I only took best setups & no 🥊 trends. A top trader was stressed in June. That was his tell 2 change.
2. Cut out the marginal trades in this market! You have nowhere to hide if you are taking constant paper cuts. No longer 2020/2021 w constant Aces to outweigh them.
This market is paying you to build your discipline and selectivity. That is crucial skillset for career traders.
3. NVR SAY “THIS ISNT MY MKT!” Lot of Fintwit taking summer off bc of this. What if not yr mkt for years!?
Pros are using this market to grow playbook bc nobody knows how long any market might last.
Swang is elite decade-long trader leading his team to find new edges.
4. How can you make each day FUN!? Is it collabing w other traders!? Trying new awesome lunch spots in NYC? Midday walk in Central Park or hitting the gym?
To sustain high performance you NEED to be enjoying the day-to-day.
5. Where do you want to be as a trader or person in 5 or 10 years? What are the daily actions you can take NOW to get there?
Building discipline, expanding playbook, networking are skills to help you thrive in all market environments for decades to come.
EXPECTED VALUE DYNAMICS: Maybe the most important ADVANCED-LEVEL topic in trading is understanding how EV changes through time. As each bar elapses, the probabilities & risk/reward of the pattern are changing with it. One’s trading & system must dynamically reflect this. (1/6)
Best analogy I can give is how poker players must adapt to every occurrence around them. The turn, river, flop changes their EV. Each player’s betting changes their EV. It isn’t static based on original hand. They’re handicapping each change that elapses over time. (2/6)
This concept applies to every single chart and every single decision as a trader. It applies to trailing stops. It applies to system optimization. It applies to selling under resistance. It is all-encompassing.
“Right Side of the V” is an application of this premise. (3/6)
1. Identify top problem 2. ⬆️ consciousness, awareness 3. Reflect on causes of issue 4. Study solutions to similar past problems 5. Propose solutions/systems 6. Implement 7. Reflect on efficacy 8. Tweak 9. Reiterate steps 4-8
(1/4)
That is rough skeleton of method I’d use for any trading problem that came up. But note, I’m also using this framework for social change.
Why am I tweeting about gun violence? To ⬆️ awareness and create discussion. My end goal is to create small, localized change. (2/4)
I’m currently on steps 2/3 of the above framework.
As part of step 3, I'm reading and learning about the issue. Current book I’m reading is “Systems Thinking for Social Change” amazon.com/Systems-Thinki… (3/4)
All groups of traders I work w are finding the current trading environment challenging.
What are the best practices now?
-ACKNOWLEDGE IT! Don’t keep swinging hard if it isn’t there. Fortunately traders I work w have dialed risk back. (1/5)
-Accept that overall market vol does not always equal amazing opps, don’t fight this!
-Continue to refine practices that increase your selectivity and build safeguards. This is NOT the market you want to snowball losses in.
-Keep mind open to new edges, new strats (2/5)
-HARDEST PT FOR PEOLE: Paradoxically, slower it is, the more important to maximize Aces. Being able to turn it off, but still swing HARD when it lines up. Most yrs, trading is slow and months made by one big opp
-Reality is many “successful” ‘20/‘21 traders wont make it. (3/5)
CHANNEL FUNDAMENTALS: This is as important as my “Right Side of the V” concept. Together these two concepts explain a lot of how I traded MSTR / ARKK last week, Nasdaq futures in Jan ‘22, my prior GME write-up and a lot of my trading. So simple yet so many traders mess it up! 1/7
WHY? Bc these basics are opposite our intuition! Lesser traders chase stock higher, buying the higher highs. The stock then pulls back & maintains trend, but the weaker hands that chased then panic out @ the higher low. EXACT OPPOSITE OF PROPER TRADING! 2/7
OPTIMAL WAY: If stock trending higher, way to trade is either to HOLD & CAPTURE BIG PICTURE TREND UNTIL IT IS BROKEN OR IF SKILLED AT TIMING, SELL HIGHER HIGHS & BUY BACK THE HIGHER LOWS. If trend breaks to downside, get out. Counter-trend can be traded using same concept. 3/7
ENVIRONMENT IS EVERYTHING: If trying to excel at a skill, you need to surround yourself w best growth environment possible for developing that skill. That’s why one of my top pieces of advice is find a shop or skilled trading community. I’d never have succeeded w/o it. (1/4)
If you have nobody w edge to mimic or learn from, odds of success <1% in trading. Punting odd lots is easy & comfy. Building / joining optimal environment is hard. (2/4)
CONVERSELY, AVOID POOR ENVIRONMENTS: Need to surround self w highest caliber you can. Applies to your gym, the friends & fam you keep around, city you live in, everything. Must be surrounded by ppl full of energy dreaming big & TAKING ACTION & accomplishing great things. (3/4)
A+ TRADE WRITEUP: Brandon shared this writeup w me having based it on my GME and Yen writeup. Not only did he knock the trade and writeup out of the park, but I traded nat gas similarly myself! Thx to Brandon & @smbcapital for letting me share. Here’s what I loved about it. (1/6)
Great intro context to why the move is occurring. (2/6)