YOUR TRADING GURU MIGHT BE A FRAUD IF:

I’m starting a new series for all the most egregiously fraudulent Furus. Will be a funny compilation over time.

https://twitter.com/morgan__trades/status/1781493872788643964

The classic “I started broke and now I defraud people using hotel rooms that I claim are my mansions” sob story 🥹

https://twitter.com/MoonTrades7/status/1781742538912669990

Imagine having THIS level of close-minded HODL ignorance.

NOTHING is certain in markets. ALWAYS a probabilistic world.

Jason refused to learn in ‘18 .

Getting another opp now.

Will fate allow a 3rd? Idk.

Sry Jason, but this isn’t how life works.

https://twitter.com/jasondebolt/status/1605958795691061248

HODL is NOT a strategy!

Issue w so many TSLA/BTC investors is they make their position part of their IDENTITY.

It is in their Twitter bios.
They are “all-in” regardless of how dynamic & probable the world is.

I have NO IDEA future of TSLA.
NOBODY does!
ONLY PROBABILITIES!

NOV. TAKEAWAYS @smbcapital:

1. Many struggling finally adapted! It takes time to hone selectivity while still swinging hard on A+ opps.

Traders: “Nov. was a way easier month!”

Me: “No… Nov. was a normal month, YOU all are what changed. You all got better bc you adapted!” 2. Drilling deeper into analytics. @MikeBellafiore told great analogy of his son’s batting practice using sensors to collect data. How can traders be more proactive or self-diagnose slumps sooner by better using their data?

What about alerts if your win rates start to tank?

WHAT IS YOUR WHY!?

Money? To make family proud? To compete? Mastery of your craft? Lifestyle?

We all have a primary motivator for trading.

I make no secret that money was maybe the greatest motivator for me. I never wanted to struggle like my parents did.

1/6 I think just to succeed it doesn’t matter THAT much what your “why” is, just how DEEPLY you are driven by it.

Do you know YOUR “Why”?

Have you ever truly taken the time to sit down and reflect on what deep down motivates you?

Ever listed all your “Whys” out?

2/6

1% IMPROVEMENT COMPILATION:

A best practice I recommend is making & documenting a daily 1% improvement.

A trader I mentor shared his updated doc w me & his pod after months of work.

WOW! IT WAS INCREDIBLE!

Forget pnl, this doc showed just how much he has improved in ‘22.

1/3 I challenged him to read over the doc monthly & look for commonalities.

I challenged his pod to implement his best ideas, to share their own, and to help him expand upon them.

How epic will this doc be over 5 yrs? Think of the compounding! HUNDREDS of 1% better ideas.

2/3

OCTOBER SMB TAKEAWAYS:

1. Gameplanning, gameplanning, gameplanning. Teams have stepped up the granularity / # of gameplans. Esp for anything macro-related. Ahead of Fed meetings, analyst opinions are brought in so traders are fully aware of big $ sentiment and mindset.

1/5 2. This yr challenged many SMB traders. So we challenged them to focus on “easy money trades”. And now to expand those further.

Crushing CPI… how bout Fed / other macro data?

Crushing Day-1 earnings… how can you find more or find edge Day-2?

2/5

MY #1 FINTWIT OBSERVATION:

Most failing traders wrongly attribute their struggle to issues of psychology & risk mgmt.

Reality is most have ZERO EDGE.

They are naively fooled by randomness into thinking their wins are edge.

This seduces them to troubleshoot the wrong problem. To the Fintwit community:

What are all the ways one can know whether they have real edge or not?

@SethCohen_25 provided one correct answer - backtesting and compiling statistics.

What else?

Cc: @TheMarathon8320 for asking

Sometimes our weaknesses are our biggest strengths.

Sometimes our strengths are our biggest weaknesses. Ukraine’s inability to defend itself alone lent it the support of the Western world.

Putin’s shrewd brash aggressiveness that worked in the past is now Russia’s fatal flaw.

HOW TO FIND A MENTOR

A mentor that you can rely on can be gamechanging for all aspects of your life.

But how to find one that sticks with you? 1. MOST COMMON MISTAKE IS NOT AIMING ONLY 1-2 LEVELS ABOVE YOU! Those closest to your position have more in common with you, their experience to yours is more relevant, they are less in-demand, and you are way more likely to be able to add value to them!!

@smbcapital AUG TAKEAWAYS:

1. Wait for the trades “so obvious they smack you in the face”. If you followed that heuristic & skipped the rest, what would happen to your results?

2. Top traders are more reflective, propose better solutions, & implement them faster. (Cont…)

1/4 When you problem solve, can you make your solutions more thorough? Implement them more effectively? How adamant are you to fix issue ASAP? It KILLS top traders not to.

3. Utilize others, but play your own game. What is FOMO but an unhealthy concern for what others doing?

2/4

5 TIPS FOR BUSINESS & LIFE:

1. Your rep & relationships are everything. My network has hooked me up so many times & I’ve benefited so much from these collabs. But in order for your network to vouch for you, you need to…

(1/6) 2. ALWAYS tell truth & hold self to high ethical standard. Lies are toxic, almost NEVER worth it (read @SamHarrisOrg). Have learned from mistakes (ask me my Fake ID story). Have the hard convo! Better to live life open & honestly. Never leave someone feeling cheated.

(2/6)

IMPORTANCE OF NUANCE: Trading is all a game of nuances and how dozens of small variables add or reduce edge. Many traders have no edge or trade suboptimally bc they ignore the level of nuance you need to optimize results. (1/6) Variables assessed in one trade could be strength of lvl 2 box, intraday and daily chart, volume, positioning vs VWAP / MAs, recent market context, broader market strength, time of day, catalyst, etc. All of these come together in a subjective weighting to deduce the EV. (2/6)

EXPECTED VALUE DYNAMICS: Maybe the most important ADVANCED-LEVEL topic in trading is understanding how EV changes through time. As each bar elapses, the probabilities & risk/reward of the pattern are changing with it. One’s trading & system must dynamically reflect this. (1/6) Best analogy I can give is how poker players must adapt to every occurrence around them. The turn, river, flop changes their EV. Each player’s betting changes their EV. It isn’t static based on original hand. They’re handicapping each change that elapses over time. (2/6)

@SMBCAPITAL JUNE TAKEAWAYS:

1. Stress-free trading!

Topic of my 2020 @Traders4ACause talk! I 🤔 ⬇️ my stress would ⬇️ my pnl. Paradoxically, stress-free trading ⬆️ my pnl bc I only took best setups & no 🥊 trends. A top trader was stressed in June. That was his tell 2 change. 2. Cut out the marginal trades in this market! You have nowhere to hide if you are taking constant paper cuts. No longer 2020/2021 w constant Aces to outweigh them.

This market is paying you to build your discipline and selectivity. That is crucial skillset for career traders.

STEPS FOR CHANGE (IN TRADING OR LIFE):

1. Identify top problem
2. ⬆️ consciousness, awareness
3. Reflect on causes of issue
4. Study solutions to similar past problems
5. Propose solutions/systems
6. Implement
7. Reflect on efficacy
8. Tweak
9. Reiterate steps 4-8

(1/4) That is rough skeleton of method I’d use for any trading problem that came up. But note, I’m also using this framework for social change.

Why am I tweeting about gun violence? To ⬆️ awareness and create discussion. My end goal is to create small, localized change. (2/4)

CURRENT MARKET & ITS IMPLICATIONS:

All groups of traders I work w are finding the current trading environment challenging.

What are the best practices now?

-ACKNOWLEDGE IT! Don’t keep swinging hard if it isn’t there. Fortunately traders I work w have dialed risk back. (1/5) -Accept that overall market vol does not always equal amazing opps, don’t fight this!

-Continue to refine practices that increase your selectivity and build safeguards. This is NOT the market you want to snowball losses in.

-Keep mind open to new edges, new strats (2/5)

CHANNEL FUNDAMENTALS: This is as important as my “Right Side of the V” concept. Together these two concepts explain a lot of how I traded MSTR / ARKK last week, Nasdaq futures in Jan ‘22, my prior GME write-up and a lot of my trading. So simple yet so many traders mess it up! 1/7 WHY? Bc these basics are opposite our intuition! Lesser traders chase stock higher, buying the higher highs. The stock then pulls back & maintains trend, but the weaker hands that chased then panic out @ the higher low. EXACT OPPOSITE OF PROPER TRADING! 2/7

ENVIRONMENT IS EVERYTHING: If trying to excel at a skill, you need to surround yourself w best growth environment possible for developing that skill. That’s why one of my top pieces of advice is find a shop or skilled trading community. I’d never have succeeded w/o it. (1/4) If you have nobody w edge to mimic or learn from, odds of success <1% in trading. Punting odd lots is easy & comfy. Building / joining optimal environment is hard. (2/4)

A+ TRADE WRITEUP: Brandon shared this writeup w me having based it on my GME and Yen writeup. Not only did he knock the trade and writeup out of the park, but I traded nat gas similarly myself! Thx to Brandon & @smbcapital for letting me share. Here’s what I loved about it. (1/6) Great intro context to why the move is occurring. (2/6)

WAYS TO DEFINE CHANGE OF TREND: NOT an exhaustive list & how I’ll use is situational, but here are some ideas. Breaking a trendline. Holding new side of VWAP. Break of prior bars. Break of a moving average. Capitulatory exhaustive price move OR exhaustive volume exchange. (1/4) Higher highs and higher lows (bullish trend). Change in the tape / level 2 box. Break of resistance level. Stock doesn’t go down on bad news. Relative strength vs market / comparables. And sure many more out there… (2/4)

HOW TO ESCAPE THE MAZE: This is a metaphor I used w my trainees and part of the work I did on “meta-learning”. So many people would put so much work into the wrong places. Meta-learning helps make sure you are investing your time efficiently. (1/9) Imagine you are stuck in a huge elaborate maze. Success in trading or life is getting out of the maze. What are the best practices to get out? (2/9)